2005年-世界发展银行全球_Russian_Federation___From_Transition_to_Development_A_Country_Economic_Memorandum_for_the_Russian_Federation_150页_11mb

Summary of the Russian Federation Country Economic Memorandum (Report No. 32308-RU)

Core Content

This report, Russian Federation From Transition to Development, is a Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) published by the World Bank in March 2005. It analyzes the structural changes in Russia's economy since the 1998 financial crisis and their implications for long-term growth. The report is divided into several sections, each focusing on different aspects of economic transformation, including spatial and sectoral reallocation, productivity changes, enterprise size and market concentration, and ownership and control structures.

Main Views and Key Information

A. Introduction

• The Russian Federation is in a phase of transition, with structural change playing a key role in determining medium-term growth and long-term prospects.
• The report aims to assess the extent of structural change and its contribution to economic growth, which is essential for meeting the government's economic development goals.

B. Growth After the Crisis: Macroeconomic Factors

• Post-crisis recovery: The Russian economy experienced a significant rebound after the 1998 crisis, with a cumulative growth of 38% from 1998 to 2003.
• Growth determinants:
  • External factors: High commodity prices, especially oil, were a major driver of growth.
  • Endogenous adjustments: Relative price changes, including real exchange rate devaluation and real wage decline, played a critical role in the initial recovery.
  • Economic agent behavior: Changes in investment, labor utilization, and policy decisions were significant.
  • Underutilized capacity: Previously underused capital and labor capacity contributed to early recovery but has since been exhausted.
• Oil price impact: Russia has not grown faster than 5% without an increase in oil prices. The trend growth rate is estimated at 4.5–5% with oil prices constant.
• Inflation and fiscal health: Inflation dropped to 12% in 2003, and the federal budget had a surplus for four consecutive years.
• Exchange rate and wage trends: The real exchange rate is under upward pressure, and real wages are approaching pre-crisis levels, which may require difficult policy interventions.

C. Structural Change

C1. Spatial Reallocation

• Demographics and migration: Internal migration, not just international migration, is the main driver of population movement. Russia has experienced large shifts from the North and East to more economically viable areas.
• Urbanization: Despite the unusual urbanization pattern under central planning, Russia is still urbanizing rapidly. However, the development of new urban centers is unpredictable.
• Policy implications: Avoiding targeted migration incentives is recommended. Policies should focus on reducing transaction costs of mobility rather than directing it to specific regions.

C2. Sectoral Reallocation

• Sectoral shifts: There has been a decline in employment in industry and an increase in market services. However, agriculture and non-market services remain underdeveloped.
• Benchmarking: Russia's employment structure is not aligned with market economies. It has a higher share of employment in non-market services and a lower share in agriculture.
• Spatial implications: Regions have become more diversified over time, influenced by latitude, transport infrastructure, and education.
• Policy implications: Encouraging private firm growth is critical for employment shifts. Investment climate improvements are necessary to support this process.

C3. Composition of Productivity Changes

• Transfer pricing impact: Transfer pricing has distorted the measurement of GDP, underestimating the contribution of oil and gas and overestimating that of services.
• Adjusted GDP composition: After recalculating, oil and gas make up 20% of GDP, and industry becomes the largest component again.
• Productivity trends: Labor productivity in industry is increasing, while it is decreasing in market services. Most productivity gains come from restructuring within sectors, not just shifts between them.
• Policy implications: Strengthening investment and fostering new firm creation is essential. The public sector should support restructuring through social protection and privatization mechanisms.

C4. Enterprise Size and Market Concentration

• Establishment size: Russia has oversized and overly concentrated production facilities, leading to pressures for horizontal integration.
• Employment distribution: Employment in small establishments (30–100 employees) has increased, indicating a shift toward smaller, more flexible enterprises.
• Market concentration: There is a high level of market concentration, particularly in the industrial sector.
• Policy implications: Encouraging enterprise consolidation and improving the flexibility of the enterprise sector is necessary for long-term growth.

C5. Ownership and Control

• Ownership concentration: A small number of large private owners control a significant share of the economy (about 1.7 trillion rubles in sales and 1.4 million employees).
• Control and performance: Firms controlled by large owners generally outperform others in terms of productivity growth.
• State capture: There is evidence of state capture in some regions, with preferential treatment for certain firms.
• Ownership impact: Ownership interests of captors do not seem to directly impact the performance of non-captor firms.
• Policy implications: Further privatization and reducing tax loopholes for oil and gas firms are needed to improve the investment climate and ensure fair competition.

Conclusion

• The Russian economy has made significant progress since the 1998 crisis, but structural change remains a key driver of future growth.
• While oil prices have been a major factor in recent growth, they are inherently volatile and cannot be relied upon for long-term stability.
• The report emphasizes the need for continued structural reforms, including investment in new firms, privatization, and the creation of a more flexible and competitive enterprise sector.

References and Annex

• The report includes several tables and figures analyzing various aspects of Russia's economic transformation, such as GDP composition, employment trends, and productivity changes.
• It also features two boxes discussing bank assistance for settlement pattern adjustments and the role of ownership and control in economic performance.