2012年-世界发展银行全球_Belarus_Country_Economic_Memorandum___Eeconomic_Transformation_for_Growth_124页_2mb

Summary of Belarus Country Economic Memorandum: Economic Transformation for Growth

Core Content

This document, the Belarus Country Economic Memorandum: Economic Transformation for Growth, published by the World Bank in April 2012, evaluates the economic structure and growth model of Belarus, highlighting the need for structural reforms to ensure sustainable growth and competitiveness. It outlines the key challenges in the labor and capital markets, the performance of the state-owned enterprise (SOE) sector, and the potential for developing the private and services sectors.

Main Views

1. Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction

• Belarus experienced an average annual GDP growth of nearly 8% from 2000 to 2010, leading to an eight-fold reduction in poverty.
• The growth model was initially driven by external factors such as favorable terms of trade and underpriced energy from Russia (an estimated annual average subsidy of 13.3% of GDP).
• After 2005, growth became increasingly reliant on domestic demand, fueled by expansionary monetary and fiscal policies and large state-directed lending.

2. Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities

• The current account balance deteriorated from a surplus of 1.4% of GDP in 2005 to a deficit of 15.0% of GDP in 2010.
• External debt increased more than 2.5 times between 2009 and 2011, reaching 62% of GDP.
• Low levels of foreign direct investment (FDI) and international reserves made the economy vulnerable to external shocks.
• Belarus faced two macroeconomic crises in three years: one due to the global financial crisis (2008/09), and another due to its own loose macroeconomic policies in 2011.

3. Structural Challenges

• The economy has not undergone significant structural transformation, with growth mainly driven by within-sector productivity rather than reallocation of labor and capital.
• The SOE sector dominates key industries, and its inefficiencies, including high labor costs and low productivity, have hindered overall economic performance.
• There is a significant misallocation of labor, with excess employment in SOEs and skill mismatches in the workforce.

4. Need for Reform

• Structural reforms are essential to shift from an unsustainable growth model to one that promotes productivity, competitiveness, and inclusive growth.
• The report emphasizes the need to liberalize factor markets, improve the efficiency of capital allocation, and restructure the SOE sector.

Key Information

Labor Market Issues

• Unemployment: Official unemployment is low (below 1%), but the actual rate is estimated to be more than six times higher due to underreporting.
• Excess Labor: SOEs employ about 10% more workers than necessary, which could increase the official unemployment rate by 4.2 percentage points if fully shed.
• Skill Mismatches: 60–70% of firms in Belarus consider skills a major constraint to growth, more than in the region.
• Labor Productivity: Productivity growth has been limited to within-sector improvements rather than reallocation to more productive sectors.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Liberalize labor markets by removing wage and employment controls.
  • Eliminate employment-level guidelines for SOEs.
  • Strengthen unemployment benefits and safety nets.
  • Improve targeting and reduce leakage in social assistance.
  • Reform active labor market policies to support skill development and job creation in the private sector.
  • Provide temporary wage and hiring assistance to encourage private sector employment.

Capital Allocation and Financial Sector Risks

• Credit Expansion: Credit to the economy expanded rapidly after 2005, contributing to growth but also increasing external imbalances.
• Government Directed Lending (GDL): GDL programs have distorted capital allocation, directing funds to SOEs and government priorities, which reduced the efficiency of investment.
• Capital Vulnerabilities:
  • Stagnating returns on capital.
  • Growing nonperforming loans (NPLs), with a reported rate of 13–15% of total loans.
  • State banks rely heavily on government support, with capital injections averaging 1% of GDP (2005–10) and rising to 5.3% of GDP in 2011.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Reduce distortions in capital allocation.
  • Improve the efficiency of credit distribution.
  • Enhance financial sector regulation and oversight.
  • Encourage private sector access to capital.

State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Sector

• Dominance: SOEs control a large share of production in key sectors such as machine-building, energy, and transportation.
• Performance:
  • SOEs have lower productivity and higher costs compared to private firms.
  • Average returns on assets in SOEs are significantly lower than in private firms.
  • SOEs have higher debt levels and lower profitability.
• Adaptability: SOEs have struggled to adapt to structural changes and global market conditions.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Restructure the SOE sector to improve efficiency and competitiveness.
  • Promote privatization and reduce the role of SOEs in the economy.
  • Enhance management practices and compensation systems in SOEs.
  • Implement quantitative targets for SOE performance improvements.

Private and Services Sectors

• Private Sector: The private sector is underdeveloped and has limited capacity to drive growth.
• Services Sector: The services sector, particularly finance and business services, is also underdeveloped.
• Growth Potential:
  • The private sector offers significant growth potential.
  • The services sector can be expanded through policy support.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Develop a vibrant private sector through improved business environment and privatization.
  • Support the services sector through policy and investment.
  • Enhance investor protection and reduce regulatory barriers.

Conclusion

To ensure sustainable growth, Belarus must transition from its current model, which relies heavily on external factors and state support, to a more efficient and competitive economy. This requires structural reforms in labor and capital markets, restructuring of the SOE sector, and development of the private and services sectors. The report highlights the importance of macroeconomic stability, efficient resource allocation, and institutional improvements to achieve long-term economic growth and poverty reduction.