【国际能源署】2024加快煤炭行业的公平转型报告：快速、安全和以人为本的变革战略_96页_4mb

International Energy Agency | Accelerating coal transitions
This report, commissioned by the Japanese G7 Presidency, updates the 2022 IEA analysis on coal sector transitions, focusing on strategies for rapid, secure, and people-centered change. Key conclusions include:

1. Net Zero Requirements: Achieving global net-zero emissions by 2050 requires phasing out unabated coal-fired power, as coal accounts for 40% of energy sector CO₂ emissions. In the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), solar PV and wind power replace 75% of coal generation decline from 2022-2050, with hydropower, nuclear, and other renewables also playing critical roles. Without such transition, cumulative coal emissions would exceed 300 Gt from 2023-2050, surpassing the 1.5°C temperature limit.

2. Global Coal Market Trends: Coal demand rose in 2023 due to economic recovery post-pandemic and gas supply constraints. China and India accounted for ~15% and ~10% of global demand, respectively, with emerging markets contributing 85%. Despite renewables growing rapidly, coal remains a cornerstone of electricity generation, providing 36% of global power in 2023.

3. Policy and Investment Needs: The APS requires USD 890 billion annually in 2023-2030 for low-emissions power capacity, with 30% targeting coal replacement. Renewables and nuclear will dominate, but challenges persist in emerging economies due to capital gaps and existing contracts shielding coal plants from market competition.

4. Financing Mechanisms: A mix of financial tools is proposed, including:

   • Public-private partnerships (e.g., Energy Transition Mechanism) to manage early retirements.
   • Carbon pricing to incentivize emissions reductions and offset financial risks.
   • Auctions for plant owners to monetize early retirement.
   • Sustainability-linked bonds and concessional debt to prioritize low-emissions investments.
   • Accelerated depreciation to align with transition timelines.

5. Climate and Energy Security Balance: Phasing out coal must ensure electricity security, especially in regions where coal supports grid stability. Existing plants can be repurposed for flexibility (e.g., grid support, storage) or retrofitted with CCUS, while early retirement is necessary but requires compensation mechanisms to mitigate job losses.

6. People-Centered Transitions: Coal-dependent regions face significant employment impacts (e.g., 7.8 million global coal jobs could drop to 5.6 million by 2030). Strategies include:

   • Short-term income support and job retraining.
   • Industrialization and economic diversification in coal communities.
   • Environmental rehabilitation and honoring cultural/social needs.
   • Regional case studies (e.g., South Africa’s just transition initiatives, China’s retraining programs).

7. Recovery and Affordability: While capital under recovery from existing coal plants could reach USD 270 billion by 2050, cost savings from reduced fossil fuel demand will offset these expenses. In the APS, global electricity prices decline by 20% by 2050, though regional disparities persist.

8. Emissions Mitigation and Innovation: CCUS and co-firing with ammonia/bioenergy offer partial solutions, but technical and economic challenges remain. The NZE Scenario aims to achieve near-zero coal use by 2040, with CCUS capacity reaching 150 GW globally.

9. International Collaboration: The report highlights the role of the Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement, Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETP), and multilateral development banks (MDBs) in financing and policy coordination.

The analysis underscores the necessity of tailored policies to address coal’s role in energy systems while prioritizing equitable transitions that safeguard livelihoods and ensure affordability. Over 85% of global energy sector emissions are now under net-zero pledges, but rapid implementation of clean energy investments and flexible coal plant operations remains critical.