2013年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Its_a_long_way_to_Copenhagen_7页_109kb

Summary of "It's a Long Way to Copenhagen: Turkey's Membership of and Convergence with the European Union"

Core Content

This policy brief by Willem H. Buiter discusses Turkey's path toward EU membership and its potential for economic convergence with the EU-25. It highlights both the progress made and the significant challenges that remain.

Main Points

1. Turkey's EU Accession Negotiations

• Started on October 3, 2005, marking a pivotal moment for Turkey's future.
• EU membership is seen as a shared national ambition, with macroeconomic stability and structural reforms being key conditionality requirements.
• The author cautiously optimistic, acknowledging the challenges but believing they can be overcome with political will.

2. Macroeconomic Normalisation

• Significant improvements in macroeconomic management have been observed, including:
  • Fiscal discipline: Primary surplus of 7.1% of GDP in 2004 and 6.5% in 2005.
  • Debt reduction: Gross public debt to GDP ratio dropped from 107.5% in 2001 to 68.6% in 2005.
  • Inflation control: Inflation has fallen to single digits.
  • Exchange rate regime: A managed float with no explicit target, used to stabilize the economy.
  • Growth recovery: Real GDP growth rebounded from a 7.5% decline in 2001 to an average of 5.8% in 2003–2005.

3. Challenges to Macroeconomic Stability

• High public debt: Still over 70% of GDP, with significant foreign currency exposure.
• Unhedged exchange rate risk: Especially in the banking sector.
• Low national saving rate: At levels typical of aging populations, despite Turkey's young demographic.
• Private sector saving is low: Impeding the ability to fund necessary investment.

4. Investment and Human Capital

• Low investment rate: Below the required 30–35% of GDP for convergence.
• Underinvestment in human capital: Particularly in female education and employment.
• Female employment rate: Only 24.3% of the working-age population.
• Education gaps: Turkish pupils score below OECD averages in PISA tests.
• Productivity issues: Agriculture is less productive than industry and services.

5. Institutional and Governance Deficiencies

• Poor business environment: Low rankings in economic freedom and competitiveness indices.
• Corruption concerns: Ranked 65th in the 2005 Corruption Perceptions Index.
• Weak media freedom: Ranked 98th in the 2005 Press Freedom Index, below EU standards.
• Institutional weaknesses: Including weak financial markets, poor rule of law, and inefficient public administration.

6. Pathways to Sustainable Growth

• Need for structural reforms: To shift from easy growth to sustainable growth.
• Key areas for reform:
  • Increasing the national saving rate.
  • Enhancing financial and institutional infrastructure.
  • Improving human capital formation, especially for women.
  • Attracting FDI through policy liberalization.
  • Reforming the social security system to ensure long-term sustainability.

7. EU Membership as an Incentive

• EU accession provides an external incentive for reform, but not a guarantee.
• Copenhagen criteria are important but not sufficient on their own.
• Political obstacles remain, such as the potential French referendum.

8. Role of the EU in Supporting Reform

• The EU should provide unconditional market access and free financial capital mobility.
• Unrestricted FDI and migration liberalization are also crucial for Turkey's development.
• The EU's current support is seen as conditional and insufficient.

Key Information

• Economic convergence: Turkey's per capita income is at the level of Romania and Macedonia, but it needs to increase significantly to match EU standards.
• Demographic advantage: A young and growing population offers potential for future growth.
• Structural reforms: Required to move from macroeconomic stability to sustainable growth and convergence.
• Role of the EU: Can help by granting market access and supporting FDI, but not by imposing costly or premature regulations.
• Plan B: Necessary for Turkey to prepare for the possibility of not achieving EU membership.

Conclusion

Turkey's future is largely in its own hands. While EU membership is a long-term goal, the success of the accession process is not assured. The country must prioritize and sequence reforms to ensure long-term economic development and convergence. The EU can play a supportive role, but only if it offers real market access and avoids imposing premature regulations.

References and Context

• The brief is based on the World Bank's 2006 Country Economic Memorandum for Turkey.
• It references international institutions such as the IMF, OECD, and UNDP.
• The Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) is mentioned as the institution responsible for the brief.
• CEPS is an independent policy research institute with a strong network of collaborators and a focus on European policy issues.