标普《2021年年中全球银行业国家展望：诱人的稳定迹象》-113页_13mb

Summary: Global Banking Country Outlook Midyear 2021 - Tantalizing Signs Of Stability

Core Content

The Global Banking Country Outlook Midyear 2021 report by S&P Global Ratings highlights the gradual stabilization of the global banking sector following the economic disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. While there are positive signs of recovery, the report underscores that the banking sector remains in a delicate phase and is still vulnerable to various risks.

Main Points

Banking Sector Recovery

• The global banking sector is showing signs of stabilization, with S&P Global Ratings' outlooks now largely mirroring pre-pandemic conditions.
• Nine of the top 20 banking systems are expected to recover to pre-COVID-19 levels of financial strength by 2022, while the rest may take until 2023 or later.
• The net negative outlook for the global banking sector has decreased significantly from 31% in October 2020 to 1% in June 2021.
• About 13% of banks globally are on a negative outlook, which is a marked improvement from the previous 31%.
• 75% of bank outlooks are now stable, up from 65% in October 2020, with 12% now positive.

Credit Losses and Recovery

• Credit losses remain elevated globally, with some jurisdictions expected to see them stay high through 2022.
• North America is expected to recover slightly better than pre-pandemic levels by year-end 2021.
• Latin America is projected to return to pre-pandemic levels by year-end 2022, with Brazil likely to lead the recovery due to its strong provisioning and healthy margins.
• S&P has revised global credit loss forecasts downward to $1.6 trillion for 2021-2022, from $1.8 trillion.

Key Risks

1. Slow Vaccination Rollouts and New Variants

   • These factors could disrupt economic recovery and prolong the negative outlook for banks.
   • Emerging markets are particularly vulnerable due to limited government and health resources.

2. Surge in Leverage and Corporate Insolvencies

   • High corporate and government leverage remains a risk, especially if economic recovery is slower than expected.
   • Interest rate increases could strain banks' earnings and asset quality.

3. Disorderly Reflation and Market Disruption

   • A rapid and volatile normalization of interest rates could trigger market volatility and damage weaker corporates and emerging markets.
   • Banks with high exposure to derivatives markets may be more vulnerable.

4. Low Rates Challenge Business Models

   • Ultra-low interest rates are impacting bank profitability and business models.
   • Digital transformation is necessary for cost reduction and profit improvement but requires significant investment.

5. Property Risks

   • Property exposure, particularly in residential real estate, is a concern due to rising house prices and potential asset quality issues.
   • Bermuda is cited as an example where strong house price growth has led to a negative economic trend reversal.

Key Information

BICRAs (Banking Industry Country Risk Assessments)

• BICRAs are a critical tool used to assess the risk profile of banking systems globally.
• They are grouped on a scale from '1' (lowest risk) to '10' (highest risk).
• Between January 1, 2021, and June 30, 2021, there were five negative revisions and 14 positive revisions of BICRAs, indicating a shift toward stability.

Regional Outlooks

• North America is expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2022.
• Latin America is projected to normalize by 2022, with Brazil leading the recovery.
• Europe is showing signs of stabilization, with many European banks having their outlooks revised to stable from negative.
• Asia-Pacific is also on a path to recovery, though some jurisdictions may take longer.
• Emerging markets such as India, Mexico, and South Africa may take longer to recover, though South Africa has shown improvement in 2021.

Economic and Credit Forecasts

• GDP growth forecasts for major regions are provided, showing a rebound in 2021 and 2022.
• Credit cost ratios have risen sharply in 2020 and are expected to remain elevated through 2022.
• Corporate default rates are expected to decline, but not to pre-pandemic levels immediately.

Outlook Volatility

• The global banking sector is still expected to have volatile outlooks due to the early stage of economic recovery, uneven vaccine rollouts, and uncertainty around COVID variants.

Conclusion

While the global banking sector is showing signs of stabilization, it remains in a delicate recovery phase. The report emphasizes the need for continued monitoring of risks such as property exposure, corporate insolvencies, and potential market disruptions. Authorities' support and the progress of vaccination campaigns are key factors in the sector's recovery, but challenges such as low interest rates and structural changes will continue to shape the outlook for banks in the coming years.