未来能源研究所-木制品市场和森林政策对土地利用变化的影响（英）-2024.5-38页_486kb

Introduction

The paper analyzes how wood products markets and forest policies influence land use changes, focusing on afforestation and deforestation in the US Southern region from 1982 to 2012. It uses empirical data to model how timber prices and economic factors affect landowner decisions, emphasizing their role in conservation outcomes like carbon sequestration.

Methods

The study incorporates a real options framework into a land use choice model, linking it to a reduced-form timber market model. Data from sources like the USDA National Resource Inventory and Timber Mart South are used to estimate transitions between land uses (e.g., agriculture, forestry, urban), with counterfactual simulations applied to scenarios such as the Great Recession and policy interventions.

Results

Key findings from simulations indicate that economic growth and increased timber demand, without associated urban land use expansion, strongly encourage afforestation and increase forest land area. For instance, a hypothetical 20% rise in wood content in construction led to significant net afforestation, while tree-planting subsidies had small effects. The Great Recession counterfactual showed muted land use changes due to offsetting effects on afforestation and deforestation.

Conclusion

Policies enhancing forest returns, such as through carbon markets or wood demand incentives, are more effective at expanding forest land than subsidies alone. This supports ecosystem services and can mitigate timber scarcity, highlighting the importance of market-based approaches in forest policy design.