国际能源署-生物多样性与净零目标之间的土地利用竞争-加拿大案例研究（英）-2025_23页_4mb

Summary of Land-Use Competition between Biodiversity and Net Zero Goals: A Case Study of Canada

Core Content

This report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) examines the land-use implications of achieving global targets for energy, climate and biodiversity conservation, with a focus on Canada as a case study. It highlights the need for strategic land-use planning to ensure that renewable energy development and biodiversity protection can coexist without significant conflict.

Key Findings

• Global Targets:

  • Nearly 200 countries aim to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.
  • The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework targets protecting 30% of the world's land and water by 2030.
  • Meeting these targets requires careful coordination to avoid land-use conflicts.

• Land Use Requirements:

  • Tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 would require an additional 600,000 km² of land for solar and wind projects, equivalent to the size of France.
  • By 2050, this could grow to 2 million km², an area slightly larger than South America.
  • The IEA developed the Renewable Energy and Land-Use Model (REALM) to identify overlaps between renewable projects, critical mineral mining and biodiversity conservation areas.

• Canada's Land Use Context:

  • Canada has already protected 14% of its landmass, and needs to protect an additional 16% (1.3 million km²) to meet its 30 by 30 target.
  • The total land area suitable for utility-scale solar and onshore wind is over 1.7 million km², which is 30 times more than required for net zero by 2050.
  • The direct land footprint for wind and solar is small (around 15,000 km² by 2050), representing just 1% of Canada’s total land area.

• Overlap with Biodiversity and Croplands:

  • Over 25% of Canada’s top-tier solar and wind resources overlap with unprotected areas important for global biodiversity.
  • 40% of solar PV and onshore wind capacity currently under development overlaps with these areas.
  • Solar projects are increasingly competing with croplands, with nearly 30% of new solar and wind capacity being developed on agricultural land.
  • This competition is particularly evident in the prairie provinces and along the St Lawrence River.

• Critical Minerals:

  • Canada hosts over 200 Mt of known key energy transition mineral resources, including lithium, cobalt, copper, graphite, nickel and rare earth elements (REEs).
  • These minerals are crucial for clean energy technologies, such as batteries and powerlines.
  • Approximately 35% of Canada’s mineral resources key to the energy transition are located in unprotected areas important for global biodiversity.
  • Over 30% of known mineral occurrences do not intersect with top biodiversity areas, suggesting potential for future exploration in less sensitive regions.

• Strategies for Coexistence:

  • Proactive measures such as environmental pre-screening, brownfield development, and co-location with agriculture can help reduce land-use conflicts.
  • Designating renewable development zones away from biodiversity hotspots can help align energy expansion with conservation goals.
  • Integrating biodiversity considerations into energy system planning can enhance coordination and reduce negative impacts.

Main Recommendations

• Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA):
  • Use SEA to identify high-resource, low-risk areas for renewable development.
• Brownfield Development:
  • Prioritize the use of previously developed or disturbed lands (brownfields) to avoid new conflicts with biodiversity.
• Co-location with Agriculture:
  • Develop wind and solar projects in tandem with agricultural activities to reduce land-use competition.
• Geospatial Data Utilization:
  • Leverage geospatial datasets to guide planning and ensure alignment between energy and conservation goals.
• International Collaboration:
  • Expand the REALM model globally to support other countries, especially those in developing regions, with similar challenges.

Conclusion

Canada has the land resources to support its net zero by 2050 goals without significantly compromising biodiversity conservation. By implementing proactive land-use strategies and utilizing geospatial data, the country can protect its most important biodiversity areas while still expanding renewable energy capacity. The REALM model serves as a valuable analytical tool to help align energy transition planning with biodiversity conservation, ensuring a sustainable and coordinated path forward.