印太地区国家对中美竞争的反应（日本篇）-兰德-2020-68页_1mb

Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo-Pacific: U.S.-Japan Alliance and Southeast Asia

Core Content

This report analyzes how the U.S.-Japan alliance can be leveraged to counter China's growing influence in Southeast Asia within the broader context of great-power competition in the Indo-Pacific. It outlines Japan's political, economic, and public opinion dynamics in shaping its China policy, and explores the evolving security policy of Japan in response to China's assertiveness. The report also examines Japan's defense relations with Southeast Asian nations and provides policy recommendations for the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and U.S. Air Force (USAF) to enhance cooperation with Japan in the region.

Main Findings

• Japan's Political Landscape: The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has been the dominant political force in Japan, controlling the government since 2012. The LDP includes factions with varying stances on security policy, ranging from those advocating for a more assertive foreign policy to those focused on economic interests and maintaining pacifist principles.

• Public Opinion Toward China: Public sentiment in Japan toward China is largely negative, influenced by territorial disputes, trade imbalances, and concerns over China's military expansion and coercive diplomacy.

• Economic Ties with China: China plays a significant role in Japan's economy, particularly in manufacturing, tourism, and education. These economic relationships may limit Japan's willingness to take strong security actions against China.

• Security Policy Evolution: Japan's security policy has been shifting toward greater flexibility and capability in response to China's growing assertiveness. This includes enhancing military readiness and expanding defense cooperation with Southeast Asian countries.

• Defense Cooperation with Southeast Asia: Japan has significantly increased its security cooperation with Southeast Asian nations over the past decade. This includes capacity-building, training, and assistance in areas such as maritime law enforcement, cyber defense, and disaster relief.

• Role of the U.S.-Japan Alliance: The alliance is seen as a key tool in countering China's influence. Japan can act as a "wingman" for the U.S., helping to legitimize U.S. engagement in the region and provide a multilateral framework that counters China's hierarchical ambitions.

• Strategic Importance of Southeast Asia: Southeast Asia is considered a critical region for U.S. and Japanese strategic interests due to its exposure to China's influence. The region's stability and adherence to international norms are seen as vital to the broader Indo-Pacific security order.

Key Recommendations

For the U.S. Government

• Leverage the U.S.-Japan Alliance: The U.S. should frame its cooperation with Japan in Southeast Asia around "winning the peace," emphasizing norms-setting, access agreements, and multilateral engagement rather than direct military confrontation.

• Joint Policy Framework with ASEAN: The U.S. and Japan should jointly articulate a policy framework that supports ASEAN centrality and the values of autonomy, capacity, and resiliency. Hosting a summit with ASEAN could be a useful mechanism.

• Coordinate and Synergize Efforts: The U.S. and Japan should coordinate their defense and security programs with Southeast Asian nations to avoid duplication and ensure they complement each other. This includes planning and conducting joint humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR) operations.

• Expand Professional Military Education: Offering professional military education opportunities to Southeast Asian nations in the U.S. and Japan can help build long-term security partnerships.

• Focus on Nonlethal Capabilities: Given the sensitivity of U.S.-Japan relations with Southeast Asian countries, most defense and security assistance should focus on nonlethal capabilities such as intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), cyber defense, and logistics support.

For the DoD and USAF

• Enhance Joint Training and Exercises: The DoD and USAF should work with Japan to trilateralize training and exercises with Southeast Asian partners, helping them build capacity and familiarity with U.S. and Japanese forces.

• Promote Multilateral Engagement: The U.S. and Japan should emphasize multilateral approaches to security cooperation, avoiding a binary "U.S. or China" narrative that could alienate Southeast Asian nations.

• Support Regional Resiliency: Assistance should focus on building the resiliency of Southeast Asian nations against coercion and natural/man-made disasters, reinforcing their autonomy and security capabilities.

• Use Information Sharing and Legal Frameworks: Highlighting China's problematic behavior through information-sharing and emphasizing the importance of international law and regulations can bolster the legitimacy of U.S.-Japan engagement in the region.

Conclusion

The U.S.-Japan alliance is a critical asset in countering China's influence in Southeast Asia. By focusing on norms-setting, capacity-building, and multilateral engagement, the alliance can help ensure that Southeast Asian nations remain aligned with the values of a free and open Indo-Pacific. The report emphasizes the importance of avoiding a confrontational stance and instead fostering a cooperative, supportive, and legitimate security framework that aligns with regional interests and enhances U.S. strategic advantage over time.