2008年-世界发展银行全球_The_Doha_Development_Agenda___Whats_on_the_Table__37页_337kb

Doha Development Agenda Summary

Core Content

The Doha Development Agenda, which has been under negotiation for nearly seven years, presents a range of potential trade reforms aimed at improving market access for developing countries, particularly the Least Developed Countries (LDCs). This paper outlines the key areas of negotiation, including goods and services market access, agricultural export subsidies and domestic support, and trade facilitation and aid for trade. The authors focus on the implications of these reforms for developing countries, emphasizing the difference between legally bound and currently applied levels of protection.

Main Points

1. Key Benefits of the Doha Agenda

• Enhanced market access security: Reductions in legally bound levels of protection in goods and services.
• Improved market access: Especially in agriculture and manufacturing.
• Resource mobilization for LDCs: Aid-for-trade and trade facilitation initiatives are expected to help LDCs overcome trade barriers.

2. Tariff Reductions

• WTO members have agreed to large reductions in legally bound tariffs.
• However, reductions in currently applied tariffs are smaller due to the large gap between bound and applied rates.
• Tariff reductions in agriculture:
  • The "tiered" formula would cut bound tariffs by nearly half (from 40.3% to 20.7%).
  • Applied tariffs would fall by about a third (from 14.5% to 11.8%).
  • Flexibilities reduce the effectiveness of these cuts, especially for sensitive and special products.
• Tariff reductions in NAMA:
  • Bound tariffs would fall by about 31% (from 7.8% to 5.3%).
  • Applied tariffs would fall by about 25% (from 2.9% to 2.1%).
  • LDCs are largely excluded from tariff-cutting commitments, and their applied tariffs are not expected to decrease significantly.

3. Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM)

• A new SSM is proposed for developing countries, with both price and quantity triggers.
• This mechanism allows for some protection in case of price drops but may increase market instability if used frequently.

4. Export Subsidies and Domestic Support

• The draft agreement calls for the abolition of all export subsidies, which could help reduce market distortions.
• Domestic support is subject to sharp reductions:
  • The Aggregate Measure of Support (AMS) would be reduced by 70% in the EU, 60% in the USA, and 45% in other industrial economies.
  • Developing countries would have cuts of about two-thirds the size of those in industrial countries.
  • The Overall Trade Distorting Support (OTDS) would also be reduced significantly.
  • Product-specific limits are introduced, including a sharp reduction in support for cotton.

5. Trade in Services

• Liberalization in services has been largely unilateral, with limited progress in multilateral negotiations.
• Doha offers do not include substantial liberalization of actual policy, but rather reassurance that access will not worsen.
• The GATS (General Agreement on Trade in Services) commitments are more restrictive than current policies.
• Doha offers are still more restrictive than current policies, with an average gap of 43%.
• Transport and professional services remain among the most protected sectors, with limited progress in negotiations.

6. LDCs and Market Access

• LDCs are not required to reduce their applied tariffs, so their benefits depend on other countries' commitments.
• Duty-free and quota-free (DFQF) access is proposed for LDCs, but only if industrial countries do not exclude vital tariff lines.
• The US market is considered critical for LDCs, as they already have DFQF access in the EU.
• Preference erosion is a major concern for LDCs, as reductions in Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariffs may reduce the value of their existing preferences.
• Rules of origin (ROOs) and broadening of preferences are proposed to help LDCs.

Key Information

• Tariff levels:
  • The current average applied tariff for all goods is 3.7%, and the average bound tariff is 9.9%.
  • Without exceptions, the formula would reduce average applied tariffs to 2.5% and bound tariffs to 5.7%.
  • With flexibilities, the reductions are smaller, with average applied tariffs at 2.9% and bound tariffs at 6.9%.
• Agricultural tariffs:
  • The current average applied tariff in agriculture is 14.5%, and the average bound tariff is 40.3%.
  • The formula would cut bound tariffs by nearly half (to 20.7%) and applied tariffs by about a third (to 8.9%).
  • Flexibilities reduce these cuts significantly, especially for sensitive products.
• NAMA tariffs:
  • The current average applied tariff is 2.9%, and the average bound tariff is 7.8%.
  • The formula would cut bound tariffs by about 31% (to 5.3%) and applied tariffs by about 25% (to 2.1%).
• LDCs:
  • They are not required to reduce their applied tariffs.
  • The proposed DFQF access is only beneficial if industrial countries do not block key tariff lines.
  • Preference erosion is a risk due to reductions in MFN tariffs.
  • Research suggests that 97% access is still far from 100% for LDCs.

Conclusion

The Doha Development Agenda has made progress in reducing trade barriers, particularly in goods and services, but significant challenges remain. The proposed reforms offer potential long-term benefits for developing countries, especially in terms of market access and trade policy stability. However, substantial effort is needed to translate these notional benefits into actual gains, particularly for LDCs. The catalytic role of trade facilitation and aid for trade is acknowledged, but their effectiveness depends on implementation and support. Overall, the Doha negotiations represent a mixed outcome, with some areas showing ambitious reform and others limited progress.