20180807-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_519kb

报告摘要

Dim Sum Express Summary

Core Content

This document provides an equity research summary focusing on the performance of key indices and stocks in the Hong Kong and mainland China markets, particularly the steel and architectural decoration sectors. It includes market data, sector analysis, investment recommendations, and risk factors.

Key Index Performance

The following indices show their performance in terms of change percentage (1D, 1M, YTD) and earnings growth (18E, 19E) and P/E ratios:

Market	1D Chg (%)	1M Chg (%)	YTD Chg (%)	18E EPS (%)	19E EPS (%)	18E P/E	19E P/E
HSI	0.5	-1.8	-7.0	37.4	11.0	11.3	10.2
HSCEI	0.1	0.7	-8.6	16.9	10.7	7.6	6.9
MXCN	-0.3	-4.5	-8.6	48.0	16.0	12.2	10.5
SHSZ300	-1.3	-2.7	-18.8	34.2	15.4	11.0	9.6
SHCOMP	-1.3	-1.5	-18.2	37.5	13.7	10.8	9.5
SZCOMP	-2.1	-5.3	-23.4	73.4	22.3	16.1	13.2
INDU	0.2	4.3	3.2	43.6	9.0	15.0	15.0
SPX	0.4	3.3	6.6	47.9	10.5	17.7	16.0
CCMP	0.6	2.2	13.9	85.3	16.4	23.3	20.0
UKX	0.1	0.6	-0.3	171.5	7.7	12.8	12.8
NYK	0.1	3.3	-1.1	63.3	13.8	14.3	14.3

Hong Kong ADRs Performance

HK Ticket Company	Local (HK$)	Daily (%)	ADR (US$)	Daily (%)
700 TENCENT	353.0	0.91	45.1	-0.22
1398 ICBC	5.8	0.70	14.6	0.00
939 CCB	7.0	0.43	17.8	-0.25
857 PETROCHINA	5.7	0.35	72.6	-0.40
5 HSBC	72.7	0.48	46.4	-1.63
941 CHINA MOBILE	69.3	0.00	44.3	-0.52
2318 PING AN	70.0	-0.14	29.7	-9.92
3988 BANK OF CHINA	3.6	0.00	6.5	-0.91
386 SINOPEC	7.4	0.14	28.5	-1.28
1299 AIA	67.6	2.11	9.1	5.81

Steel Sector Analysis

Demand Trends: 1H18 property investment demand growth slowed to 9.7%, while GFA new starts and GFA construction increased.
Supply Constraints: Crude steel output rose significantly YoY, but capacity utilization rates remain high, and government environmental policies are tightening supply.
Price Outlook: Steel prices are expected to remain stable, while iron ore prices may weaken due to seasonal demand declines.
Earnings: Earnings declined in July but are expected to improve in August due to tighter supply and seasonal demand.
Stock Picks: Recommended stocks include SGIS Songshan (000717 CH), Hunan Valin Steel (000932 CH), Xinyu Iron & Steel (600782 CH), Nanjing Iron & Steel (600282 CH), and Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019 CH).
Risks: Economic downturn, steel exports missing expectations, weak production cuts, and coordinated price cuts by iron ore producers.

Architectural Decoration Sector Analysis

Valuations: The sector is at a historical low with P/E at 11.6x and P/B at 1.29x.
Earnings Growth: 60 architecture companies posted profit alerts, with 1H18 net profit growth of 26.8% YoY.
Fundamental Improvement: Earnings growth remains strong, and fundamentals are expected to improve further due to policy support.
Investment Highlights:
- Low P/B SOEs: Gezhouba Group (600068 CH), China Railway Construction (1186 HK), China Communications Construction (601800 CH), China State Construction Engineering (601668 CH), and China National Chemical Engineering (601117 CH).
- Home Decoration Blue-Chips: Gold Mantis Construction Decoration (002081 CH), Dong Yi Ri Sheng Home Decoration Group (002713 CH), and JSTI Group (300284 CH).
- Overseas Projects: Sinoma International Engineering (600970 CH) benefits from Rmb depreciation.
Risks: Rmb exchange shocks, macroeconomic volatility, rising interest rates, and disappointing company earnings.

Rating Definitions

Company Ratings:
- Buy: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%.
- Accumulate: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%.
- Hold: Expected relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%.
- Underperform: Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%.
Sector Ratings:
- Positive: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%.
- Neutral: Expected relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%.
- Cautious: Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%.

Disclaimer and Certifications

The report is prepared by GF Securities (Hong Kong) for informational purposes only.
No recommendation to buy or sell is made.
The analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect their personal views and that no compensation is tied to specific recommendations.
Disclosure of interests is provided, stating that no proprietary trading or investment banking relationships exist with the mentioned companies.
The report may contain different views from the proprietary trading division.

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