【理特咨询ADL】2024移动出行5.0的未来-驶向可持续交通系统的加速转型研究报告英文版_68页_5mb

Summary of "THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY 5.0"

Core Content

This report, titled "THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY 5.0: Changing gear in the journey toward sustainable mobility", presents an in-depth analysis of the current state of mobility systems and outlines key strategies and solutions to accelerate the transition toward more sustainable, resilient, safe, inclusive, efficient, and human-centric mobility systems (referred to as "virtuous mobility systems").

Main Viewpoints

• Slow Progress Toward Sustainable Mobility: Despite technological advancements, the shift from private car usage to sustainable transport modes has been limited. Public transport (PT) and active mobility (walking and cycling) have seen some growth, but private cars still dominate, accounting for 70% of passenger-kilometers (pax-km) in urban areas and 90% in rural areas.
• Climate Change and Emissions: Transport remains the only sector with a steady increase in CO2 emissions since 1990, contributing 25%–40% of national emissions. This highlights the urgent need for more effective climate change mitigation policies.
• Consumer Willingness to Change: Surveys indicate that a significant portion of urban residents (27%–50%) would consider giving up at least one car if sufficient alternatives were available. However, there's a notable gap between stated intent and actual behavior.
• Need for Integrated Solutions: A holistic approach is necessary to address the complex challenges in mobility systems. The report emphasizes the importance of combining policy, infrastructure, and technological innovations to create a more sustainable future.
• Transformative Shift Requires Collaboration: The report identifies 10 "game changers" that are critical to accelerating the transition, focusing on vision, policy, supply, smart mobility, demand management, and funding strategies.

Key Information

Current State of Mobility Systems

• Global Modal Split: In 2023, sustainable modes (mass transit, walking, cycling, and shared mobility) accounted for about 65% of trips, with the remaining 35% still dominated by private cars.
• Regional Differences:
  • Europe has a higher share of public transport (27% of users combine it with other modes).
  • North America and the Middle East show a higher reliance on private cars.
  • In the US, 78% of citizens use private cars for daily commuting, while in China, it's 61%.
• Public Transport Usage: Global usage of public transport has slightly decreased over the past few years, while active mobility has remained stable, with an increase of over 10% in Europe.
• New Mobility Services: These include micromobility (e-bikes, e-scooters), car sharing, ride hailing, and electric-powered personal mobility devices (PMDs).

Key Trends Reshaping Mobility

• Urbanization: By 2050, it is expected that 68% of the global population will live in urban areas, increasing pressure on mobility systems.
• Digitalization: Over two-thirds of the world's population is now online, with adoption rates exceeding 90% in over 50 countries.
• Individualization: Personalization of mobility services has increased due to AI and digital platforms, enhancing user experience and convenience.
• Sustainability: Sustainability has become a core focus in both public policy and corporate strategy, with growing emphasis on emissions, air quality, and safety.
• Everything as a Service: Consumers increasingly expect on-demand services, which has a significant impact on urban logistics and mobility.
• Shared Economy: The rise of shared mobility models (car sharing, ride pooling) is driven by digital platforms and has the potential to further evolve into autonomous mobility.
• Green and Healthy Mobility: There is growing awareness among consumers, especially in developed economies, of the environmental and health benefits of sustainable mobility.
• Connectivity and AI: These technologies are reshaping mobility systems, with the potential to improve efficiency and reduce environmental impact. The report also notes the slower-than-expected progress in autonomous vehicle (AV) development.
• Speed and Efficiency: There is a continuous effort to reduce travel time and improve the use of time during travel.

Key Solutions and Recommendations

The report evaluates eight key mobility solutions and identifies 10 game changers to accelerate the shift toward virtuous mobility systems. These include:

1. Mobility Vision & Policies

• Combine "framing" and "enabling" measures for system-level mobility management.
• Adopt more integrated policies to support climate change mitigation and net-zero goals.
• Reshape public spaces to move away from car-centric urban planning.

2. Mobility Supply

• Develop multimodal transport masterplans prioritizing performance and affordability.
• Invest in improved infrastructure for public transport, active mobility, and shared mobility.
• Foster partnerships between authorities and new mobility service providers (MSPs).

3. Smart Mobility

• Embrace innovation and technology to better address user needs and system requirements.
• Implement a comprehensive approach to frame and enable a "MaaS-powered" virtuous mobility system.
• Prepare for the "control tower" role in urban centers for real-time traffic and transportation management.

4. Mobility Demand Management

• Develop a comprehensive MDM strategy with a focus on high-impact, low-cost measures.
• Conduct effective marketing campaigns to promote sustainable mobility.
• Leverage corporates to foster sustainable mobility for their employees.

5. Mobility Funding

• Optimize spending for maximum cost-effectiveness and value for money.
• Explore (partial) public funding for new mobility solutions that enhance the overall system.
• Proactively seek diversification of funding sources from users and taxpayers.
• Implement smart revenue management strategies for public transport operators.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while the necessary solutions for a transformative shift toward virtuous mobility systems are available, their implementation requires comprehensive planning, appropriate funding, and robust governance. The goal is to increase the global share of sustainable mobility from approximately 30% to 60% of pax-km within the next decade. However, no single solution has a significant impact on its own, and collaboration between public and private stakeholders is essential to achieving this vision.