IEA-电力市场报告（英）-2021.7_123页_5mb

报告摘要

Electricity Market Report Summary (July 2021)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of global electricity market trends, focusing on demand, supply, and emissions in the context of the post-pandemic recovery and the increasing role of renewable energy. It highlights the challenges and opportunities in transitioning to a low-carbon energy system.

Main Points

Global Electricity Demand Recovery

Global electricity demand rebounded strongly in 2021 and 2022 after a 1% drop in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Asia Pacific led the recovery, with China accounting for over half of the global growth in 2022.
India contributed 9% of the global growth in 2021.
Weather played a significant role in shaping demand, with milder temperatures in 2020 reducing consumption, while extreme weather in 2021 led to supply shortfalls and increased demand for heating and cooling.

Renewable Energy Growth and Limitations

Renewable electricity generation continued to grow strongly, with an 8% increase in 2021 and over 6% in 2022.
However, renewables cannot keep up with demand growth, serving only around half of the projected demand increase in 2021 and 2022.
Nuclear power also grew, but only marginally, contributing to a small portion of the gap closure.

Fossil Fuel-Based Generation and Emissions

Fossil fuel-based electricity generation will cover most of the additional demand in 2021 and 2022, with coal playing the largest role.
Coal generation in China and India exceeded pre-pandemic levels in 2021.
CO₂ emissions from the electricity sector are expected to rise again in 2021 and 2022, reaching an all-time high in 2022, despite a slight decline in emissions intensity.

Electricity Market Prices and Security

Wholesale electricity prices have recovered, with the IEA Wholesale Electricity Market Price Index showing a 54% increase in the first half of 2021 compared to 2020.
Extreme weather events have threatened electricity security, with notable incidents in Texas (USA) and Japan.
A new Electricity Security Event Scale was introduced to assess the severity of supply disruptions based on customer impact and duration.

Flexibility and Market Challenges

The increasing share of variable renewables (wind and solar) is driving the need for greater system flexibility.
Market revenues for renewable and dispatchable generators are declining, raising concerns about remuneration schemes in competitive markets.
Weather-related demand fluctuations are becoming more pronounced, with heating and cooling demand increasing due to extreme weather conditions.

Regional Trends

Asia Pacific

China experienced a strong rebound in electricity demand, with weather-corrected growth of 16% in April and 15% in May 2021 compared to 2019.
Coal generation in China rose from a record low in 2020, with a share of 66.5% in the first four months of 2021.
India saw coal's share in electricity generation exceed pre-crisis levels, reaching 79% in early 2021 due to low hydropower and wind output.

Europe

Coal generation returned to pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2021, but nuclear and wind output dropped.
Gas-fired generation increased by 20% in the first five months of 2021, but coal still lagged behind pre-crisis levels.
Several European countries accelerated coal phase-out plans, such as Austria and Sweden shutting down coal plants in 2020, and Portugal closing its largest coal plant in 2021.

United States

Heating demand spiked due to record-breaking cold in early 2021, while cooling demand increased in the summer months.
Commercial and industrial demand in the US remained below 2019 levels until 2022, with gas prices rising significantly in 2020, affecting fuel switching from coal to gas.

Other Regions

India saw a slowdown in demand growth due to the second wave of the pandemic in April 2021.
Brazil experienced a 10% drop in cooling demand in 2020 and a 1% drop in January to May 2021.
Central and South America had mixed weather impacts on electricity demand.

Key Information

The IEA reports on the global electricity market, emphasizing the need for stronger policy actions to meet climate goals.
The Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario highlights the importance of the electricity sector in achieving emissions reductions.
Weather is a major factor in electricity demand and supply, with extreme conditions affecting multiple regions.
The transition to renewable energy is underway, but fossil fuels still dominate the supply mix, creating a discrepancy between current trends and long-term climate goals.
Electricity security is becoming more critical due to increasing renewable integration, electrification of end uses, and extreme weather events.