全球电力市场报告-123页_5mb

Electricity Market Report Summary (July 2021)

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of global electricity market trends and forecasts for 2021 and 2022, highlighting the impact of the pandemic, weather events, and the transition to renewable energy sources. It outlines the challenges and opportunities for the electricity sector in achieving climate goals and ensuring security of supply.

Main Points

Global Electricity Demand Recovery

• Global electricity demand fell by ~1% in 2020 due to the pandemic and milder temperatures.
• It is expected to rebound strongly in 2021 and 2022, growing by ~5% in 2021 and ~4% in 2022.
• The majority of this growth will occur in the Asia Pacific region, with China accounting for over half of the 2022 growth.
• India is expected to contribute 9% of the global growth in 2021.

Renewable Energy Growth

• Renewable electricity generation continued to grow, increasing by 7% in 2020, 8% in 2021, and over 6% in 2022.
• Renewables are projected to meet only around half of the projected demand growth in 2021 and 2022.
• Nuclear power generation is expected to grow by ~1% in 2021 and ~2% in 2022.

Fossil Fuel-Based Generation

• Fossil fuel-based generation will cover the remaining demand, with coal playing the largest role.
• Coal generation, which had declined by 4.6% in 2020, is expected to increase by nearly 5% in 2021 and by ~3% in 2022.
• Gas-fired generation is expected to grow by ~1% in 2021 and ~2% in 2022, but its growth is slower than coal due to its smaller role in the Asia Pacific region and competition from renewables in the US and Europe.

CO₂ Emissions

• CO₂ emissions from the electricity sector are forecast to increase by 3.5% in 2021 and 2.5% in 2022.
• Emissions intensity of global electricity generation slowed from over 3% in 2020 to ~1% in 2021 and 2022.
• These trends indicate a gap between current market conditions and long-term climate targets.

Electricity Market Prices

• Wholesale electricity prices in major advanced economies rose by 54% in the first half of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020.
• This is attributed to volatile fossil fuel prices and changes in electricity demand caused by the pandemic and weather anomalies.

Security of Supply

• Extreme weather events, such as cold snaps and heatwaves, have impacted electricity supply in multiple regions.
• The Texas power crisis in February 2021 was rated the highest on the new Electricity Security Event Scale.
• Weather-related demand for heating and cooling has increased, especially in Europe and the US, contributing to supply challenges.

Variable Renewables and System Flexibility

• The increasing share of variable renewables (wind and solar) is affecting the operation and design of electricity systems.
• Flexible generation and consumption are becoming more critical to manage the variability of renewable sources.

Key Information

IEA Member and Association Countries

• Member Countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States.
• Association Countries: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Morocco, Singapore, South Africa, Thailand.

Regional Demand Trends

• China: Leading the global rebound, with weather-corrected demand growing by 16% in April and 15% in May 2021 compared to 2019.
• India: Weather-corrected demand was 10% higher in the first quarter of 2021 than in 2019.
• Europe: Demand for heating increased in early 2021 due to colder temperatures, but the overall demand trend remains ambiguous.
• United States: Demand for heating rebounded after a mild winter in 2020, but commercial and industrial demand has not fully recovered.

Coal and Gas Trends

• EU: Coal generation returned to pre-pandemic levels in early 2021, driven by lower nuclear and wind output, and higher gas prices.
• China: Coal's share in the generation mix increased from a record low of 58% in October 2020 to 66.5% in the first four months of 2021.
• India: Coal's share in the electricity mix exceeded pre-crisis levels, reaching 79% in early 2021.

Climate and Policy Implications

• The current market trends are not aligned with the zero emissions pathway.
• Stronger policy actions are needed to achieve climate goals, particularly in reducing coal use and increasing the share of renewables.
• The IEA's [Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario] highlights the need for a 4.4% annual decline in emissions from the power sector.

Future Challenges

• Ensuring electricity security in systems with high renewable penetration.
• Developing appropriate remuneration schemes for market participants in competitive electricity markets.
• Managing the variability of renewable sources through flexible generation and consumption.

Conclusion

The report underscores the significant rebound in global electricity demand post-pandemic, with China and India as key drivers. Despite rapid growth in renewable energy, fossil fuels, especially coal, continue to dominate the supply mix. The increasing variability of demand due to weather events and the rise of variable renewables are putting pressure on electricity systems to become more flexible. Achieving climate goals will require stronger policy actions and investment in low-carbon technologies.