20160801-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_15页_2mb
报告摘要
Investment Daily Note Summary
Core Content
This daily note provides an overview of the Hong Kong and global market conditions, highlighting key trends, stock performance, and sector analysis. It also includes insights into selected stocks, market valuations, and economic indicators.
Main Market Trends
- HSI and HSCEI: Both indices closed lower on the day, with the HSI at 21,891 and HSCEI at 8,958.
- Market Volatility: The market experienced a decline due to the Bank of Japan's modest stimulus announcement, leading to a drop in Hong Kong small-cap stocks.
- Global Market: US stocks ended mixed, with the Dow down slightly, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ showed slight gains.
- Foreign Exchange: The US dollar weakened against other currencies, contributing to a rise in oil prices and gold prices.
Key Market Data
Indices Performance
| Index | Close | Daily Change (%) | YTD Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| HSI | 21,891 | -1.3 | -0.1 |
| HSCEI | 8,959 | -1.4 | 7.3 |
| Shanghai Comp | 2,979 | -0.5 | 15.8 |
| Shenzhen Comp | 1,942 | -0.5 | 15.9 |
| DJIA | 18,432 | -0.1 | 5.8 |
| S&P 500 | 2,174 | 0.2 | 6.3 |
| Nasdaq Comp | 5,162 | 0.1 | 3.1 |
| FTSE 100 | 6,724 | 0.1 | 7.7 |
| DAX | 10,338 | 0.6 | -3.8 |
| CAC 40 | 4,440 | 0.4 | -4.3 |
| Nikkei 225 | 16,569 | 0.6 | -12.9 |
| Taiwan Weighted | 8,984 | -1.0 | 7.8 |
Market Turnover
| Index | Turnover (HK$bn) | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| HSI | 23.8 | 7.85% |
| HSCCI | 4.9 | 2.10% |
| HSCEI | 13.4 | 14.23% |
| Main Board | 67.9 | 7.91% |
Stock in Focus
CNQC INT'L (1240.HK)
- Last Close: HK$2.82
- Entry: HK$3.00
- Target: HK$3.60
- Stop-loss: HK$2.70
- YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: 5.6% / -8.7% / -2.1% / 0.0%
- Market Cap: HK$3.52bn
- 3M Average Daily Volume: 1.48mn shares
- Reason for Focus: Positive outlook due to initiatives to increase competitiveness, including a successful tender for a commercial and residential development site in Singapore.
Today's Top Picks
-
Changmao Bio (954)
- Last Trading Day Closing: HK$1.02
- Target Price: HK$1.14
- Stop-loss Price: HK$0.97
- Reason: Stock price bottomed out and may rebound further.
-
Dasheng Agr Fin (1103)
- Last Trading Day Closing: HK$1.02
- Target Price: HK$1.09
- Stop-loss Price: HK$0.98
- Reason: Share price rallied strongly with increasing turnover, suggesting a small bet may be placed.
Sector Performance
Best Performing Sectors
| Sector | Daily Change (%) | 5-Day Change (%) | 1-Month Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coal | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Logistics | 0.9 | 0.3 | 12.0 |
| Steel | 0.3 | -0.9 | 4.7 |
| HK Telecoms | 0.0 | -0.4 | 6.1 |
| REITs | -0.1 | 1.3 | 7.0 |
| Local Banks | -0.5 | 1.1 | 5.9 |
| Handset and related accessories | -0.6 | -0.4 | 5.4 |
| Heavy Machinery | -0.7 | 1.1 | -2.2 |
| Airline | -0.7 | 3.3 | 13.3 |
| Toll Road | -0.7 | 1.0 | 3.0 |
| Environmental and New Energy | -0.9 | -0.2 | 1.5 |
| Telecoms Equipment | -1.1 | -1.0 | 5.9 |
| Local Property | -1.2 | 0.6 | 10.2 |
| Chinese Banks | -1.2 | -1.1 | 2.0 |
| Chinese Telecoms | -1.2 | 0.5 | 7.1 |
Major Stocks in Best Performing Sectors
| Sector | Major Stocks |
|---|---|
| Coal | China Shenhua (1088), Yanzhou Coal (1171), China Coal (1898) |
| Logistics | Kerry Log Net (636), SITC (1308) |
| Steel | Angang Steel (347), Maanshan Iron (323), Shougang Res (639) |
| HK Telecoms | HutchTel HK (215), Smartone (315), HKT-SS (6823) |
| REITs | Yuexiu REIT (405), Fortune REIT (778), Prosperity REIT (808), LINK Reit (823), Champion REIT (2778) |
| Local Banks | Hang Seng Bank (11), BEA (23), Chong Hing Bank (1111), BOCHK (2388), Dah Sing Banking (2356) |
| Handset and related accessories | Tongda Group (698), AAC Tech (2018), Sunny Optical (2382), Coolpad Group (2369), TCL Comm (2618) |
| Heavy Machinery | Sany Int'l (631), Zoomlion (1157), Lonking (3339), Sinotruk (3808) |
| Airline | Cathay Pacific (293), China East Air (670), Air China (753), China South Air (1055) |
| Toll Road | Sichuan Express (107), Jiangsu Express (177), Shenzhen Express (548), Zhejiang Express (576), Anhui Expressway (995) |
| Environmental and New Energy | China EB Int'l (257), BJ Ent Water (371), China Longyuan (916), Xinyi Solar (968), CGN Power (1816) |
| Telecoms Equipment | China Com Service (552), ZTE (763), Trigiant (1300), Comba (2342) |
| Local Property | CK Hutchison (1), Henderson Land (12), SHK Prop (16), New World Dev (17), Sino Land (83) |
| Chinese Banks | CCB (939), ABC (1288), ICBC (1398), BankComm (3328), BOC (3988) |
| Chinese Telecoms | China Telecom (728), China Unicom (762), China Mobile (941) |
Valuations and Forward P/E
| Index | FY16E P/E (X) | Long-term Avg. Fwd. P/E (X) | Deviation from Avg. (%) | FY1 EPS Growth (%) | FY2 EPS Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSI | 12.1 | 11.0 | 10.8 | -10.2 | 10.5 |
| HSCEI | 7.7 | 7.9 | -2.5 | -8.9 | 10.0 |
| Shanghai Comp | 13.8 | 10.7 | 28.2 | 19.5 | 12.9 |
| S&P 500 | 18.4 | 15.3 | 20.5 | 10.3 | 13.0 |
External Market Conditions
- US Economic Growth: Worse-than-expected, leading to mixed US stock performance.
- Oil Prices: Rose due to the weakened US dollar, with New York crude oil futures at US$41.60/bbl.
- Gold Prices: Increased as sluggish US economic growth delayed rate hike expectations, with New York gold futures at US$1,357.50/oz.
- ADR Impact: ADRs dropped in the US market, effectively putting HSI down 51 points.
Most Short Sold Stocks
| Company | Stock Code | Price (HK$) | 1D Chg (%) | Shortsell Turnover (HK$m) | % of Total Shortsell Turnover | % of Own Turnover | FY1 P/E (X) | FY2 P/E (X) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOUGANG FUSHAN | 639.HK | 1.380 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 50.8 | 98.6 | |
| SINOPEC ENGINE-H | 2386.HK | 6.760 | 3.0 | 15.5 | 0.2 | 48.7 | 8.8 | 8.3 |
| CHINA RESOURCES | 291.HK | 15.020 | 1.8 | 112.6 | 1.3 | 46.8 | 36.0 | 26.0 |
| CHINA PACIFIC-H | 2601.HK | 27.400 | -2.0 | 76.7 | 0.9 | 36.2 | 15.0 | 13.5 |
| GOLDIN FINANCIAL | 530.HK | 3.300 | -19.7 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 39.9 | 8.8 | 7.6 |
| CHINA SHENGMU OR | 1432.HK | 1.530 | -3.8 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 32.3 | 27.1 | 21.9 |
| PETROCHINA-H | 857.HK | 5.26 | -1.0 | 188.5 | 32.3 | 28.3 | ||
| CHINA COAL ENE-H | 1898.HK | 4.090 | 2.8 | 69.0 | 58.0 | 183.3 | ||
| SHANGHAI ELECT-H | 2727.HK | 3.22 | 2.5 | 186.3 | 178.7 | 22.3 | ||
| HISENSE KELON -H | 921.HK | 4.60 | 2.3 | 178.1 | 177.8 | 25.1 | ||
| YANZHOU COAL-H | 1171.HK | 4.77 | 2.0 | 175.8 | 175.8 | 25.8 | ||
| CHINA LIFE-H | 2628.HK | 17.68 | 1.8 | 148.7 | 148.7 | 32.7 | ||
| SHENZHEN EXPRE-H | 548.HK | 7.31 | 2.6 | 106.4 | 106.4 | 25.1 | ||
| ANHUI EXPRESS-H | 995.HK | 6.01 | 2.3 | 102.2 | 102.2 | 27.5 | ||
| BEIJING NORTH-H | 588.HK | 2.38 | 2.3 | 102.2 | 102.2 | 22.3 | ||
| BANKCOMM-H | 3328.HK | 5.23 | 2.3 | 102.2 | 102.2 | 25.5 | ||
| CM BANK-H | 3968.HK | 16.60 | 2.3 | 102.2 | 102.2 | 20.8 |
A-Share Premium to H-Share
| Company | H-Share Code | Price (HK$) | A-Share Code | Price (RMB) | A-Share Premium to H-Share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUOYANG GLASS-H | 1108 | 4.33 | 600876 | 25.73 | 594.2 |
| ZTE-H | 763 | 10.44 | 000063 | 14.56 | 62.9 |
| AIR CHINA LTD-H | 753 | 5.93 | 601111 | 8.26 | 62.7 |
| CHINA SHIPPING D | 1138 | 4.39 | 600026 | 6.10 | 62.3 |
| SHENZHEN EXPRE-H | 548 | 7.31 | 600548 | 8.43 | 34.7 |
| ANHUI EXPRESS-H | 995 | 6.01 | 600012 | 13.68 | 165.9 |
| SHANDONG XINHU-H | 719 | 5.35 | 000756 | 11.18 | 144.1 |
| JIANGXI COPPER-H | 358 | 8.89 | 600362 | 14.49 | 90.4 |
| BANK OF CHINA-H | 3988 | 3.19 | 601988 | 3.34 | 22.3 |
Key Information
- The Chinese economy's PMI data for July showed a decline, possibly due to the El Niño effects, affecting production and logistics.
- Several insurance companies, including China Life Insurance (2628.HK), China Taiping (966.HK), and CPIC (2601.HK), issued profit warnings, which may suppress Chinese insurance stocks.
- CNQC International (1240.HK) is a focus due to its positive outlook and recent business developments.
- The market experienced mixed performance with some sectors showing positive growth and others declining.
- The A-share premium to H-share is significant for several companies, indicating potential for investment in A-shares.
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