20180608-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_439kb
报告摘要
Dim Sum Express Summary
Key Index Performance
| Market | 1D (%) | 1M (%) | YTD (%) | EPS 18E (%) | EPS 19E (%) | P/E 18E | P/E 19E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSI | 0.8 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 42.3 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 11.2 |
| HSCEI | 1.0 | 2.2 | 6.0 | 24.1 | 10.4 | 8.3 | 7.6 |
| MXCN | 0.1 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 56.9 | 15.8 | 13.6 | 11.7 |
| SHSZ300 | -0.2 | -1.2 | -5.0 | 35.5 | 15.1 | 12.8 | 11.1 |
| SHCOMP | -0.2 | -1.6 | -6.0 | 40.0 | 13.6 | 12.2 | 10.7 |
| SZCOMP | -0.6 | -3.7 | -6.9 | 76.0 | 23.1 | 19.3 | 15.7 |
| INDU | 0.4 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 40.3 | 8.8 | 16.6 | 15.3 |
| SPX | -0.1 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 46.1 | 10.0 | 17.4 | 15.8 |
| CCMP | -0.7 | 5.1 | 10.6 | 82.1 | 15.4 | 23.0 | 20.0 |
| UKX | -0.1 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 167.5 | 6.1 | 14.0 | 13.2 |
| NYK | -0.3 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 61.1 | 15.0 | 16.6 | 14.4 |
Core Insight: The market performance shows mixed trends, with some indices like MXCN and CCMP experiencing strong gains, while others like SHSZ300 and SZCOMP saw declines. The equity market showed signs of recovery in May, contributing to improved earnings for listed brokers.
Hong Kong ADRs
| Company | Local (HK$) | Daily (%) | ADR (US$) | Daily (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 700 TENCENT | 429.2 | 0.99 | 54.0 | -1.32 |
| 1398 ICBC | 6.7 | 1.51 | 17.0 | 0.47 |
| 939 CCB | 8.3 | 1.35 | 20.9 | 0.07 |
| 857 PETROCHINA | 6.6 | 0.46 | 84.5 | 1.00 |
| 5 HSBC | 77.3 | 0.98 | 49.3 | -0.06 |
| 941 CHINA MOBILE | 73.2 | 0.90 | 46.4 | -0.13 |
| 2318 PING AN | 79.6 | 0.25 | 35.5 | 6.93 |
| 3988 BANK OF CHINA | 4.3 | 1.43 | 6.6 | -0.67 |
| 386 SINOPEC | 7.6 | 0.93 | 33.6 | 0.95 |
| 1299 AIA | 73.8 | 0.89 | 9.4 | -1.46 |
Core Insight: ADRs for major Hong Kong-listed companies show mixed performance, with some like PING AN seeing significant gains while others like TENCENT and AIA experienced declines.
A-Share Market - Securities Sector
- May Net Profit Growth: 19 A-share-listed securities firms reported a 24% MoM increase in recurring net profit, but a 10.5% YoY decline for the first five months of 2018.
- Market Turnover: Increased by 9% MoM to Rmb8.9trn due to more trading days and improved equity market conditions.
- Equity Investment Funds: Daily turnover declined by 10.8% MoM to Rmb406.4bn.
- Prop Trading Performance: CSI 300 index rose 1.2%, while ChiNext index fell 3.4%, indicating varied performance.
- Investment Banking: Equity financing amounted to Rmb44.09bn, down 39.9% MoM.
- Capital Intermediary: Outstanding margin loans and securities lending reached Rmb989.18bn, up 0.5% MoM and 13.7% YoY.
Key View: Earnings divergence is expected to continue, with CDRs (Chinese Depository Receipts) acting as a catalyst for leading securities firms.
Hong Kong Market - Auto Sector
- Tariff Cuts: China reduced auto import tariffs from 25% to 15%, effective July 1, 2018, and auto components tariffs to 6%.
- Impact on Auto Component Companies: Limited, as these firms have strong earnings visibility due to long-term supply contracts.
- Impact on Domestic Automakers: Small in the medium term due to the price gap between local and imported vehicles.
- Impact on JVs: Varies by segment. Mass segment JVs are less affected, while luxury segment JVs may face increased competition from second-tier imported brands.
- Dealers' Benefit: Lower import duties reduce purchasing costs, which may lead to improved revenue and gross margins for dealers, assuming retail prices remain stable.
Key View: The tariff cuts are expected to benefit luxury auto dealers directly, while the impact on domestic automakers and JVs is limited.
Investment Highlights
- Sector Valuation: Securities sector is trading at historically low P/B levels (1.37x historical, 1.27x 2018E forward).
- Institutional Exposure: Institutional investors have reduced their exposure to the sector.
- CDRs and OTC Options: Expected to drive growth for leading securities firms with strong business structures and international capabilities.
- Recommended Companies: CITIC Securities (600030 CH), Huatai Securities (601688 CH), China Merchants Securities (600999 CH), and Haitong Securities (6837 HK) are highlighted.
Risks
- Regulatory Tightening: Continued regulatory pressure may affect the sector.
- Market Liquidity: Financial de-leveraging may lead to tighter market liquidity and lower turnover.
- Bond Market Weakness: Reduced fixed income investment returns due to continued weakness in the bond market.
- Trade Tensions: Increased trade frictions may impact the auto sector.
Rating Definitions
| Rating | Description |
|---|---|
| Buy | Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15% |
| Accumulate | Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15% |
| Hold | Expected relative performance ranges between -5% and 5% |
| Underperform | Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5% |
| Sector Ratings | |
| Positive | Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10% |
| Neutral | Expected relative performance ranges between -10% and 10% |
| Cautious | Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10% |
Analyst Certification
The analysts responsible for this report certify that all views expressed accurately reflect their personal opinions and that no part of their remuneration is directly or indirectly linked to the specific recommendations in the report.
Disclosure of Interests
- GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its affiliates do not hold shares in the mentioned securities.
- No investment banking relationships with the companies in the past 12 months.
- Analysts and their associates do not serve as officers of the mentioned companies and have no financial interests in the securities.
Disclaimer
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities. It is intended solely for GF Securities (Hong Kong) clients. The information may be subject to change without notice. GF Securities (Hong Kong) may issue conflicting views or recommendations. Investors should seek professional advice before making decisions.
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