2014年-世界发展银行全球_South_Sudan___Impact_of_a_Continued_Internal_Conflict_on_Food_Security_and_Poverty_28页_3mb

Summary of South Sudan: Impact of a Continued Internal Conflict on Food Security and Poverty

Core Content

This document analyzes the impact of two major conflicts on food security and poverty in South Sudan. It highlights how both the 2012 oil shutdown and the 2013 internal conflict have affected the country's economic and social conditions, with a focus on how these conflicts have influenced household livelihoods, food prices, and the overall poverty situation.

Main Conflicts and Their Impacts

1. Oil Shutdown and Border Closure (2012)

• Macro-economic Impact: Reduced GDP by 50% due to the shutdown of oil production and the closure of the border with Sudan.
• Consumption Impact: Affected consumption of 3.8 million people, leading to an additional 310,000 poor people.
• Poverty Gap: The gap between the poor and minimum subsistence levels widened by at least 180 million SSP from 1.42 billion SSP to 1.6 billion SSP.
• Food Price Impact: Prices in geographically isolated northern areas rose sharply, especially for staple foods like sorghum.
• Exchange Rate and Imports: The depreciation of the South Sudanese Pound (SSP) made food imports more expensive, affecting affordability and availability.
• Transportation and Infrastructure: Poor infrastructure and border closures restricted the flow of food and fuel, further worsening the crisis.
• Fiscal Impact: Government revenues fell, and the fiscal balance shifted from a small surplus to a deficit of around 3 billion SSP.

2. Internal Conflict (2013–Present)

• Macro-economic Impact: Reduced GDP by 15% and caused renewed fiscal pressures.
• Consumption Impact: Affected consumption of 2.7 million people, with 710,000 additional poor people.
• Poverty Gap: The gap between the poor and minimum subsistence levels widened by at least 821 million SSP, estimated to total 2.24 billion SSP.
• Displacement and Destruction: The conflict displaced 1.3 million people internally and 450,000 to neighboring countries, and destroyed infrastructure and livelihoods.
• Price Impact: Prices in conflict-affected towns rose sharply, with some areas experiencing a 32.6% increase in prices within two months.
• Agricultural Impact: Displacement and insecurity led to harvest losses, especially in areas like Jonglei, Upper Nile, and Unity.
• Livelihoods and Security: The conflict has severely disrupted agricultural production and increased vulnerability, particularly for rural populations.

Key Findings

• Poverty and Food Insecurity: Before the 2013 conflict, 2 out of 3 people were food insecure, and 1 out of 2 people lived in poverty.
• Impact Comparison: Although the internal conflict had a smaller macroeconomic impact compared to the oil shutdown, it had a more severe effect on livelihoods and deepened poverty.
• Geographical Disparities: The conflict has exacerbated economic divisions, particularly in the northern states.
• Structural Vulnerabilities: South Sudan's reliance on food imports and high transportation costs make it highly vulnerable to shocks.
• Food Access: Many rural households depend on markets for food access, making them susceptible to price increases and reduced purchasing power.
• Food Utilization: Malnutrition is more closely linked to limited food intake rather than poor food utilization, as evidenced by improved nutrition during good harvests.

Policy Recommendations

1. Immediate Humanitarian Response:

   • Address food aid impacts on agricultural production.
   • Mitigate food price increases through purchasing food surplus, improving transport infrastructure, and forward contracts on future harvests.

2. Follow-up Response:

   • Design interventions that do not negatively affect agricultural production in the next season.
   • Support market integration and transport networks to reduce price volatility.

3. Structural Response:

   • Implement social safety nets to protect vulnerable populations.
   • Address constraints to agricultural production through sector-specific support.
   • Develop macro-economic and exchange rate policies to improve productivity and competitiveness.
   • Create a more conducive environment for sustainable food security and economic growth.

Data and Methodology

• Data Sources: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), World Food Programme (WFP), and High Frequency South Sudan Survey (HFS).
• Methodology: Uses price substitution effects, harvest loss estimates, and displacement data to model the impact of the conflicts on consumption and poverty.
• Limitations: The simulations are based on assumptions and limited data, and should not replace updated poverty estimates from new data collection.

Conclusion

Despite the internal conflict having a less severe macroeconomic impact than the 2012 oil shutdown, it has had a devastating effect on livelihoods and food security, particularly in rural areas. The geographical concentration of the conflict has deepened economic divisions, and the structural issues in the economy, such as high transportation costs and reliance on imports, continue to threaten food security. A comprehensive and multi-layered policy response is required to address both immediate humanitarian needs and long-term structural challenges.