世界发展银行-South-Sudan-Economic-Update,-June-2021---Pathways-to-Sustainable-Food-Security_72页_19mb

South Sudan Economic Update: Pathways to Sustainable Food Security (4th Edition, June 2021)

Core Content

This document provides an updated analysis of South Sudan's economic performance and outlines key pathways to achieving sustainable food security. It highlights the challenges posed by the ongoing conflict, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the progress made in economic reforms and governance.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Context and Outlook

• Economic Performance: South Sudan's economy showed signs of improvement before the pandemic, with real GDP growth reaching 9.5% in FY2019/20. However, the economy is projected to contract by -4.1% in FY2020/21 due to the pandemic, declining oil prices, and renewed conflict.
• Sectoral Impact: The services sector contracted by 9.6%, while the agriculture sector grew by 6%, driven by increased cultivated area and cereal production, despite the impact of floods.
• Inflation Trends: Inflation rose sharply in the second half of 2020, peaking at 78% in November, but began to decline from December 2020. Despite this, the cost of the minimum expenditure basket (MSSMEB) increased by 69% in April 2021, indicating persistent inflationary pressures.
• Exchange Rate Policy: The Bank of South Sudan (BSS) has moved towards exchange rate unification, with the parallel market rate appreciating and the spread between official and market rates narrowing significantly.
• Fiscal Position: The fiscal deficit widened in FY2019/20 to 9.6% of GDP, driven by declining oil revenues, higher transfers to Sudan, and increased capital spending. Non-oil tax revenues rose modestly to 3.8% of GDP.
• Balance of Payments: The current account deficit widened to 7.9% of GDP in FY2019/20, exacerbated by transfers to Sudan and declining oil exports. International reserves were insufficient to provide adequate buffers.

Food Security Situation

• Persistent Food Insecurity: Despite increased agricultural potential, crisis-level food insecurity remains, with food prices being a major constraint on access. Nearly half the population (5.8 million) faced severe food insecurity between December 2020 and March 2021.
• Lean Season Impact: The 2021 lean season is projected to be the worst on record, with 108,000 people in the Catastrophe category (IPC Phase 5), 2.4 million in the Emergency category (IPC Phase 4), and 7.2 million people (60% of the population) facing acute food insecurity.
• Factors Affecting Food Security:
  • Conflict: While the direct impact of conflict on food insecurity has decreased, indirect effects such as displacement and reduced crop production continue to pose challenges.
  • Market Factors: Market disruptions, limited access, and high prices have had the greatest direct impact on food insecurity in recent years.
  • Living Standards: The pandemic has worsened living conditions, with a significant increase in the number of people requiring humanitarian assistance, reaching 8.3 million in 2021.
• Humanitarian Needs: According to UN OCHA, 8.3 million people required humanitarian assistance in 2021, up from 7.5 million in 2020. This includes 7.2 million rural residents, 130,000 urban residents, and 314,000 refugees.
• Health Impact: The health impact of the pandemic in South Sudan was relatively limited compared to regional peers, with 10,359 confirmed cases and 114 deaths by April 2021.

Recommendations and Pathways

• Comprehensive Approach: Tackling food insecurity requires a multifaceted strategy, including improving agricultural productivity, enhancing market access, and addressing conflict-related disruptions.
• Agricultural Potential: South Sudan's agricultural potential has increased over the past decade, but production remains below pre-conflict levels due to ongoing conflict and environmental challenges.
• Economic Reforms: The government has initiated a macroeconomic and fiscal reform program, supported by the IMF's Staff Monitored Program (SMP), focusing on restoring fiscal discipline, monetary reform, debt management, and governance improvements.
• Future Outlook: With the recovery of global oil prices and improved vaccination efforts, the economy is expected to grow by 2.6% in FY2021/22 and 3.0% in FY2022/23, higher than earlier projections. This growth could support a more inclusive and resilient recovery, particularly if oil revenues are used effectively for economic diversification.

Key Figures and Data

• GDP Growth: 9.5% in FY2019/20, projected to contract by -4.1% in FY2020/21.
• Oil Production: Increased to 62.1 million barrels in FY2019/20, up from 49.1 million in FY2018/19.
• Inflation: Rose to 78% in November 2020, then declined to 19% by March 2021.
• Exchange Rate: Parallel market rate appreciated from over 600 SPP/US$ in March to 460-500 SPP/US$ by April 2021.
• Fiscal Deficit: Reached 9.6% of GDP in FY2019/20, up from 3.2% budgeted.
• Current Account Deficit: Expanded to 7.9% of GDP in FY2019/20.
• Food Insecurity: 7.7 million people expected to need food assistance in 2021, with 73% of households experiencing food price increases in October 2020.

Conclusion

The document emphasizes the need for a sustained and comprehensive approach to improving food security and economic resilience in South Sudan, highlighting the interplay between conflict, economic policy, and market dynamics. It underscores the importance of effective fiscal management, economic diversification, and improved access to essential services to support long-term stability and recovery.