【欧洲光伏产业协会】2024农业太阳能最佳实践指南-哈萨克斯坦版

Kazakhstan's solar investment opportunities report, published by SolarPower Europe, highlights the country's significant renewable energy potential and ongoing efforts to transition to sustainable energy. The report outlines key aspects of Kazakhstan's energy landscape, business environment, and regulatory framework, while proposing strategic recommendations for enhancing solar energy development. Key findings include:

Kazakhstan, as Central Asia's largest energy producer, possesses substantial solar and wind potential, with annual sunshine hours ranging from 2,200-3,000. However, its current renewable energy share in the power mix is only 4.5%, dominated by coal (66.7%) and gas (21.5%). The country’s solar ambitions are constrained by insufficient grid integration, reliance on fossil fuels, and limited storage systems. Recent initiatives, such as incorporating storage into public procurement and updating its 2060 carbon neutrality strategy, aim to address these challenges.

The government has implemented auctions since 2017 to allocate renewable energy (RES) projects, with solar auctions achieving consistently low prices (e.g., 12.49 KZT/kWh in 2019). As of 2022, solar PV contributed 1.15 GW to RES capacity (48% of total RES), alongside 440 MW of wind, 280 MW of hydro, and 1.77 MW of bioenergy. The 2023-2027 auction plan targets 6.8 GW of RES capacity, with solar accounting for 400 MW annually. Despite progress, the lack of grid flexibility and balancing mechanisms hampers the scalability of renewables.

Political and economic factors are critical. Kazakhstan’s economy, heavily reliant on oil and gas (40% of budget revenues), remains vulnerable to price shocks. While economic reforms and foreign direct investments (targeting US$150 billion by 2030) are underway, the strengthened Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) could impact export competitiveness, particularly in coal and oil sectors. The EU-Kazakhstan Strategic Partnership, signed in 2022, aims to align on green hydrogen and battery value chains, leveraging Kazakhstan’s role as a transit hub between Europe and Asia.

The country’s regulatory framework includes the RES Law (2009) and the 2023 Energy Transition Strategy, which sets a 50% RES target by 2050. The Ministry of Energy oversees auctions and market mechanisms, with the Energy Market Operator (KOREM) managing competitive bidding. However, legislative gaps persist, such as unclear rules for bilateral PPAs and balancing cost calculations.

Recommendations emphasize improving grid infrastructure, promoting smart technologies, and expanding renewable auctions. The report calls for upgrading the Unified Power System (UPS) to integrate more RES, adopting competitive auction rules to ensure quality projects, and clarifying legal frameworks for bilateral agreements and carbon credits. Additionally, it suggests leveraging green financing tools and enhancing cross-border cooperation to diversify energy supply and reduce grid instability.

The report underscores Kazakhstan’s potential to become a leader in renewable energy, aided by its solar resources, strategic location, and economic reforms. However, addressing grid limitations, policy consistency, and market mechanisms will be crucial to realizing its decarbonization goals. The findings are part of a series of SolarPower Europe market analyses, reflecting the organization’s commitment to global energy transition.