2012年-世界发展银行全球_Boosting_Jobs_and_Living_Standards_in_G20_Countries_24页_1mb

Summary of "Boosting jobs and living standards in G20 countries"

Core Content

This report, a joint effort by the ILO, OECD, IMF, and the World Bank, analyzes the state of labor markets and employment in G20 countries four years after the global financial and economic crisis. It highlights the persistent challenges in job creation, employment quality, and income inequality, and discusses the role of macroeconomic and structural reforms in addressing these issues.

Main Points

1. Persistent Unemployment and Underemployment

• Unemployment remains high in many G20 countries, particularly in advanced economies like France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
• In some countries, such as Spain and South Africa, unemployment exceeds 20%, and long-term unemployment (12 months or more) has risen sharply.
• The jobs gap — the number of additional jobs needed to restore employment-population ratios to pre-crisis levels — is large in South Africa, Spain, and the US, accounting for nearly half of the total estimated gap of 21 million people.

2. Structural Labour Market Challenges

• Many G20 countries face longstanding structural issues in their labor markets, including:
  • Low formal employment growth relative to output growth, especially in emerging markets.
  • Poor integration of specific groups into the labor force, such as youth, women, and low-skilled workers.
  • A duality in employment between workers with strong job protection and those in insecure, temporary, or informal employment.
• These issues undermine the link between economic growth and job quality.

3. Underemployment and Informal Employment

• Underemployment (working fewer hours than desired) and informal employment are significant concerns across G20 countries.
• In some countries, underemployment is due to structural factors, while in others it reflects the impact of the crisis.
• Informal employment remains a substantial portion of the workforce in several G20 countries, often due to avoidance of regulations and social security contributions.
• Temporary contracts are widespread, especially in advanced economies, and disproportionately affect women and youth.

4. Income Inequality

• High income inequality is a common feature in G20 countries, with the richest 10% earning up to 50 times more than the poorest 10% in Brazil.
• The gap between rich and poor has widened in several countries, including the UK and the US.
• Macroeconomic policies have helped reduce inequality in some countries (e.g., Mexico and Brazil), but it remains a significant challenge.
• Investment in human capital (education and training) is crucial for addressing inequality and promoting long-term growth.

5. Near-Term Prospects for Labour Markets

• Growth is unlikely to be strong enough to significantly reduce unemployment in most G20 countries.
• Actual GDP growth is expected to fall short of potential growth in the near term, which means recovery is slow.
• Productivity gains and labour force absorption are necessary for reducing the unemployment gap.
• Reverse migration and population growth further complicate the challenge of job creation in countries like Mexico.

6. Scope for Macroeconomic Policies

• Advanced economies have limited scope for further macroeconomic stimulus due to:
  • Monetary policy already being highly accommodative.
  • Fiscal policy constrained by weak public finances.
• Emerging markets have more flexibility, especially in:
  • China, where fiscal policy can be loosened if growth slows.
  • Countries with moderate inflation and weaker public finances, where monetary easing with macro-prudential measures can be considered.
• Policy trade-offs exist, particularly between budgetary consolidation and job creation, which are outlined in Table 1.

7. Cannes Action Plan Commitments

• The report assesses the employment consequences of the Cannes Action Plan commitments.
• Policy priorities vary across G20 countries, depending on the nature of their labor market challenges.
• Countries with high unemployment and long-term joblessness should focus on short-term employment gains.
• Countries with low labor force participation should prioritize expanding participation and employment, especially for women and older workers.

Key Recommendations

• Structural reforms are essential for long-term job creation and improving employment quality.
• Macroeconomic policies should be tailored to the specific circumstances of each country.
• Investment in human capital (education, training, and skills development) can yield a double dividend by reducing inequality and boosting long-term growth.
• Strengthening social protection and improving labor market institutions are critical for promoting decent work and inclusive growth.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for collective and collaborative efforts among G20 countries to address the challenges of unemployment, underemployment, and inequality. It highlights that while macroeconomic policies can provide some support, structural reforms are necessary for sustainable job creation and improving employment quality. The Cannes Action Plan serves as a framework for such reforms, emphasizing the importance of policy coordination and inclusive growth strategies.