2003年-世界发展银行全球_Uzbekistan_-_Living_Standards_Assessment___Policies_to_Improve_Living_Standards_Volume_1_Summary_Report_37页_3mb

Uzbekistan Living Standards Assessment: Summary Report

Core Content

This report, prepared by the World Bank in collaboration with the Government of Uzbekistan, provides an analysis of living standards in Uzbekistan since independence, focusing on both income and non-income dimensions of poverty. It highlights the need for targeted policies to improve the well-being of the population, especially in light of the challenges posed by economic and social structures.

Main Findings

1. Poverty Status

• Income Poverty: Over 27.5% of the population is poor, with 8.3% being extremely poor.
• Poverty Concentration: Poverty is predominantly rural, with nearly 70% of the poor living in rural areas.
• Regional Disparities: Kashkadarya, Namangan, and Karakalpakistan have significantly higher poverty rates than the national average, accounting for almost 40% of all poor.
• Employment and Poverty: Employment does not fully protect against poverty. Nearly half of households with employed heads are poor. The poor are more likely to work in the informal sector, and low and irregular wages contribute significantly to their poverty.
• Education and Poverty: Basic and secondary education do not protect against poverty, while higher education is correlated with lower poverty rates.
• Inactivity and Vulnerability: A significant portion of the poor are inactive, mainly pensioners and working-age women. Inactivity is linked to limited employment opportunities and cultural factors.
• Unemployment: The unemployed, especially youth, have the highest poverty rates among the working-age population.

2. Non-Income Poverty

• Health Outcomes: Poor households, particularly in rural areas, face higher incidence of infectious diseases and worse nutritional outcomes. Chronic diseases remain a significant issue, and public health spending has declined, with a disproportionate focus on non-poor populations.
• Education: While net enrollment in basic education has improved, coverage at higher education levels remains below pre-transition levels. Educational outcomes are worse for poor households and in certain regions.
• Social Protection: The social protection system has had mixed success. Pension programs have helped reduce poverty among retirees, but unemployment benefits and cash assistance programs have limited impact due to low coverage and inefficiency.

3. Economic Growth and Living Standards

• Economic Transition: Uzbekistan experienced a "mildest" transition recession, which may have prevented large income declines during the early transition years.
• Recent Growth: Uzbekistan has seen six consecutive years of GDP growth averaging 4% per year.
• Sectoral Growth: Growth in agriculture and industry has been relatively low compared to other CIS countries. The services sector has shown higher growth but still accounts for a small share of employment.
• Productivity: Productivity growth has been limited, with industry productivity increasing only 0.8% annually, and agriculture at 5.5% annually. This is attributed to insufficient restructuring and limited private sector development.

Key Policy Recommendations

A. Sustained Economic Growth

• Private Sector Development: Facilitate private sector growth and SME development through macroeconomic stability, structural reforms (e.g., liberalization of foreign exchange and trade regimes, financial sector reforms), and reducing the burden on state enterprises.
• Agricultural Reforms: Improve agricultural productivity and incomes by liberalizing prices, reducing state intervention in markets, and increasing equity in land reforms. Lessons from the Kyrgyz Republic show that such reforms can lead to significant growth and poverty reduction.

B. Improving Capabilities in Health and Education

• Education: Enhance education outcomes by providing relevant, transferable skills and increasing access for the poor. Allocate more resources to poorer regions and improve women's participation in higher education.
• Health: Focus on reducing infectious diseases, improving nutrition, and increasing access to primary health care. Strengthen monitoring and targeting of health services, and reduce informal payments.

C. Effective Social Protection

• Pension Reform: Reform the pension system to reduce current and future fiscal costs, and improve incentives to work.
• Unemployment Programs: Strengthen unemployment benefit programs and improve targeting of social assistance and child allowance programs.
• Subsidy Reform: Phase out privileges and subsidies that benefit the non-poor and redirect them to those in need.

D. Inclusive Institutions and Reducing Informal Payments

• Institutional Reform: Increase accountability and transparency in state institutions through improved regulations, performance-based salary structures, and strengthened oversight.
• Community Voice: Strengthen the voice of communities and encourage civic society organizations to participate in policy-making.

E. Poverty Monitoring

• Surveys and Data Collection: Continue household-based surveys such as the Family Budget Survey to track changes in welfare. Implement regular Labor Force Surveys and update the population census.
• Data Access: Improve public access to data and strengthen the capacity for poverty analysis within and outside the government.

Key Information

• Poverty Measurement: The report uses a food-based poverty line to estimate income poverty, reflecting minimum subsistence. The food poverty line is 3601 soums per month, which is 50% higher than the minimum wage in 2000.
• Exchange Rates (April 1, 2003):
  • 1 USD = 968.42 soums (official)
  • 1 USD = 969.64 soums (OTC)
  • 1 USD = 1,000–1,020 soums (consumer goods/exchange bureau)
  • 1 USD = 1,120–1,140 soums (parallel market)
• Collaboration: The report was prepared in close collaboration with the Government of Uzbekistan's inter-ministerial working group.
• Data Sources: The Family Budget Survey (FBS) 2000/01 is the main data source, used alongside firm, farm, and administrative data. International comparisons with CEE and CIS countries are also made.

Conclusion

This report underscores the importance of a multi-faceted approach to improving living standards in Uzbekistan. It emphasizes the need for sustained economic growth, improved education and health outcomes, effective social protection, inclusive institutions, and robust poverty monitoring systems. The findings highlight that while some progress has been made, significant challenges remain, particularly in rural areas and among vulnerable groups.