2012年-世界发展银行全球_Republic_of_Lebanon--Good_Jobs_Needed___The_Role_of_Macro_Investment_Education_Labor_and_Social_Protection_Policies_113页_45mb

Summary of Report No. 76008-LB: Republic of Lebanon - Good Jobs Needed

Core Content

This report, titled "Republic of Lebanon: Good Jobs Needed," is a comprehensive analysis of the Lebanese labor market and provides policy recommendations aimed at improving employment creation and labor market outcomes. It is the outcome of a three-year Multi-Year Technical Cooperation Program (TCP) with the Government of Lebanon (GOL), supported by the World Bank and guided by a Multi-Ministerial Steering Committee. The report integrates findings from a labor force and employer survey and uses a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the potential impacts of various policy interventions.

Main Findings

1.1. Labor Market Dynamics

• Employment Growth: Despite a 3.7% average annual GDP growth between 1997 and 2009, employment growth was only 1.1%.
• Labor Force Participation: Only 47% of the working-age population is in the labor force, with significant gender disparities: 70% of working-age men vs. 24% of women.
• Unemployment Rates: Unemployment is particularly high among youth (34%), women (18%), and tertiary-educated workers (14%).
• Unemployment Duration: Unemployment spells are long, averaging 13 months for men and 10 months for women, especially for first-time job seekers.
• Sectoral Employment: Low productivity sectors dominate employment, particularly services (35% of wage employees, 61% of self-employed), while high productivity sectors are underdeveloped.
• Skills Mismatch: A significant portion of workers (41%) lack skills matching job requirements. Mismatches are observed in both managerial and non-managerial positions.
• Informal Employment: Around 20% of the labor force is in informal wage employment, and 30% is self-employed in low productivity sectors. Transition rates from informal or self-employment to formal employment are low.
• Brain Drain: Highly skilled workers are migrating out of the country, while low-skilled immigrants are entering, creating a skills gap.

1.2. Policy Implications

The report emphasizes the need for coordinated policies across macroeconomic, investment, education, labor, and social protection areas to improve labor market outcomes and increase employment levels.

Key Policy Recommendations

2.1. Labor Market Characteristics

• The labor force is predominantly low-skilled and employed in low productivity sectors.
• There is a high prevalence of informal employment and self-employment, with limited mobility into formal jobs.
• Workers face challenges in job search and transitions due to inefficient systems and limited access to information and resources.

3.1. Macroeconomic and Investment Policies

• Fiscal Consolidation: Continue fiscal consolidation to reduce borrowing needs, cut government bond spreads, and promote macroeconomic stability.
• Infrastructure Investment: Invest in critical infrastructure (electricity, transportation, telecommunication, water, and wastewater) to reduce business costs and attract private investment.
• Tax Reform: Review tax policies to reduce distortions that affect investment in productive sectors and discourage employment creation.
• Access to Finance: Improve access to finance for SMEs and entrepreneurs by enhancing the Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE), promoting investment banking, and supporting private credit bureaus.
• Regulatory Reform: Simplify procedures and introduce transparency in regulations to reduce uncertainty, accelerate business processes, and combat corruption.
• Competition and Intellectual Property: Establish a modern competition authority and protect intellectual property to promote economic growth and innovation.
• Regional Development: Consider targeted industrial policies to mobilize investments in high value-added sectors, with attention to regional development.

4.1. Active Labor Market Programs (ALMPs)

• ALMPs in Lebanon are fragmented and inefficient.
• A vision for an integrated system of ALMPs is proposed, managed by the National Employment Office (NEO) and implemented by private providers.
• Key components include training programs, employment services, and self-employment initiatives.

5.1. Social Insurance and Labor Regulations

• The current social insurance system (NSSF) and labor regulations are not covering the majority of the labor force and may be incentivizing informal work.
• Pension Reform: Replace the End-of-Service Indemnity (EOSI) with a defined-contribution pension system, including a minimum pension guarantee and investment options.
• Health Insurance Reform: Expand health insurance coverage to the informal sector through a premium-based system with subsidies for low-income individuals.
• Labor Regulation Reform: Improve labor regulations to enhance worker protection, increase bargaining power, and reduce distortions that hinder labor mobility and formal employment.

6.1. Policy Simulations

• The report uses a CGE model to simulate the effects of various policy changes on employment and labor market outcomes.
• Key simulations include:
  • Simulation A: Removing payroll tax from health contributions and increasing household income tax.
  • Simulation B: Universalizing health coverage with government financing.
  • Simulation C: Universal coverage with tax increases to make the policy budget neutral.
  • Simulation D: Increased infrastructure investment.
  • Simulation E: Improved business environment and higher total factor productivity.
  • Simulation F: Combined impact of improved infrastructure and productivity.
  • Simulation G: Integrated reform package including social insurance and labor regulations.

Key Issues and Challenges

• Skills Gap: A large portion of the labor force lacks the necessary skills, both cognitive and non-cognitive.
• Informal Employment: High levels of informal employment and low transitions into formal jobs.
• Job Search Inefficiency: Personal contacts are the primary mechanism for job search, with limited use of formal job services.
• Brain Drain: Outmigration of skilled workers and inflow of low-skilled immigrants.
• Policy Coordination: The need for a coordinated approach across different policy areas to maximize impact.

Conclusion

The report concludes that a multi-faceted strategy is essential to improve labor market outcomes in Lebanon. This includes macroeconomic and investment reforms, upgrading the skills of the workforce, and rethinking the design of social insurance and labor regulations. The ultimate goal is to increase employment levels, promote the creation of high-quality jobs, and expand access to social protection for all workers.