20160601-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_15页_2mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of the Hong Kong and global financial market conditions, including equity indices, sector performance, stock picks, and valuation metrics. It also includes information on economic data, interest rates, exchange rates, precious metals, and commodities.

Key Market Trends

HSI (Hang Seng Index) closed at 20,815, up 0.9% with a YTD change of -5.0%.
HSCEI (Hang Seng China Enterprises Index) closed at 8,704, up 0.9%, with a YTD change of -9.9%.
Shanghai Composite closed at 2,917, up 3.3%, with a YTD change of -17.6%.
Shenzhen Composite closed at 1,872, up 4.1%, with a YTD change of -18.9%.
US Market: Mixed performance with Dow Jones down 0.5%, S&P 500 down 0.1%, and Nasdaq up 0.3%.
ADR Impact: ADRs dropped, contributing to a 9-point decline in HSI.
Oil Prices: Slight decline in New York crude oil futures, but still showed a 4-month upward trend.
Gold: New York gold futures settled at US$1,214.8/oz, up US$1.0.
Retail Sales: April retail sales fell 7.5% yoy, continuing the drag from the slowdown in inbound tourism.
Market Turnover: The Hong Kong market saw a total turnover of HK$103.1bn, with HSI at HK$45.7bn and HSCEI at HK$22.6bn.

Sector Performance

Top Performing Sectors (1D % change)

Logistics: 6.7%
Brokerages: 3.7%
Marine: 2.2%
IPP (Integrated Power Projects): 2.2%
Chinese Insurers: 2.0%
Agriculture: 1.9%
Medical: 1.5%
Technology: 1.5%
Dairy: 1.4%
Consumer Staples: 1.4%
HK Consumer Group: 1.3%
Coal: 1.3%
Steel: 1.3%
Local Property: 1.2%
Sports Accessories: 1.2%

Major Stocks in Top Performing Sectors

Logistics: Kerry Log Net (636), SITC (1308)
Brokerages: First Shanghai (227), Central China Sec. (1375), CITIC Sec. (6030), Haitong Sec. (6837), China Galaxy Sec. (6881)
Marine: OOIL (316), Sinotrans Ship (368), Cosco Pacific (1199), Pacific Basin (2343), CSCL (2866)
IPP: China Res Power (836), Huaneng Power Int'l (902), Datang Int'l Power (991), Huadian Power Int'l (1071), China Power Int'l (2380)
Chinese Insurers: China Taiping Ins. (966), NCI (1336), CPIC (2601), Ping An (2318), China Life (2628)
Agriculture: First Tractor (38), Sinofert (297), Ko Yo Group (827), National Agri (1236), China Bluechem (3983)
Medical: Trad Chi Med (570), Sinopharm (1099), Sino Biopharm (1177), Fosun Pharma (2196), SH Pharma (2607)
Technology: Kingdee (268), Chinasoft (354), Tencent (700), NetDragon (777), Kingsoft (3888)
Dairy: Biostime (1112), CH Modern (1117), YST Dairy (1431), Mengniu (2319), Huishan Dairy (6863)
Consumer Staples: Want Want (151), Uni-President (220), Tingyi (322), Hengan Int'l (1044), Sun Art Retail (6808)
HK Consumer Group: Sa Sa Int'l (178), Cafe De Coral (341), Luk Fook (590), Bonjour (653), I.T (999)
Coal: China Shenhua (1088), Yanzhou Coal (1171), China Coal (1898)
Steel: Angang Steel (347), Maanshan Iron (323), Shougang Res (639)
Local Property: CK Hutchison (1), Henderson Land (12), SHK Prop (16), New World Dev (17), Sino Land (83)
Sports Accessories: 361 Degrees (1361), Xstep Int'l (1368), Peak Sport (1968), Anta Sports (2020), Li Ning (2331)

Stock in Focus

WIN HANVERKY (3322.HK)

Last Close: HK$1.38
Entry: HK$1.38
Target: HK$1.65
Stop-loss: HK$1.23
YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: -13.8% / -6.1% / 16.9% / 22.1%
Market Cap: HK$1.77bn
3M Average Daily Volume: 2.69mn shares
FY1 Forward P/E: N/A

Reason for Focus:

The company is a major supplier of sports apparel to Adidas, with 76.9% of revenue from manufacturing.
Gross margin increased by 2 percentage points to 30.2%.
Net profit surged by 194.9% due to a lower base value from a plant closure in 2014.
The 2016 UEFA European Championship and Rio Olympics are expected to boost demand for sports apparel.
The Trailing P/E is 7.2x, below the five-year average of 17.6x, indicating a favorable valuation.
High dividend yield of 8.3%.
The company is expanding production in Vietnam, with 70% of capacity in Southeast Asia expected to increase to 80% by 2018.
Factories in China are being closed to reduce costs.

Today's Top Picks

EMPEROR CAPITAL (717)
- Price: HK$0.70
- Purchase Price: Current
- Target Price: HK$0.77
- Stop-loss Price: HK$0.63
- Reason: Strong price rally with increasing turnover.
TC ORI LIGHT (515)
- Price: HK$0.30
- Purchase Price: Current
- Target Price: HK$0.33
- Stop-loss Price: HK$0.27
- Reason: Share price bottomed out and rebounded.

Valuation and Forward P/E

Hang Seng Index: FY16E P/E at 11.4, long-term average at 11.0, deviation +3.7%, FY1 EPS growth -8.3%, FY2 EPS growth 10.3%.
HSCEI: FY16E P/E at 7.2, long-term average at 7.9, deviation -8.6%, FY1 EPS growth -6.0%, FY2 EPS growth 9.1%.
Shanghai Composite: FY16E P/E at 13.3, long-term average at 10.7, deviation +24.2%, FY1 EPS growth +20.4%, FY2 EPS growth +13.3%.
S&P 500: FY16E P/E at 17.9, long-term average at 15.3, deviation +16.7%, FY1 EPS growth +8.7%, FY2 EPS growth +13.5%.

External Market Conditions

US Economic Data: Anticipated key data later this week led to mixed results.
Interest Rates:
- U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: 0.8750%, down 4.35 bps over 5 days.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: 1.8458%, down 2.06 bps.
- U.S. 30-year Treasury yield: 2.6479%, down 1.55 bps.
HK HIBOR:
- 1-month: 0.2332%, up 3.39 bps.
- 3-month: 0.5379%, up 2.30 bps.
Exchange Rates:
- USD/HKD: 7.7711, down 0.1%.
- EUR/USD: 1.1127, down 0.3%.
- USD/JPY: 110.62, down 0.4%.
- USD/CNY: 6.5790, down 0.4%.
Precious Metals and Commodities:
- Comex Gold: US$1,214.8/oz, down 0.8%.
- Comex Silver: US$15.980/oz, down 1.7%.
- Nymex WTI Crude: US$48.86/bbl, up 0.5%.
- ICE Brent Crude: US$49.57/bbl, down 0.3%.
- LME Copper: 4,671.00, up 2.4%.
- LME Aluminum: 1,556.00, up 0.1%.

A-Share Premium to H-Share

LUOYANG GLASS-H: H-share price HK$4.32, A-share price RMB 26.35, premium 620.5%.
ZHEJIANG SHIBA-H: H-share price HK$8.07, A-share price RMB 25.50, premium 273.2%.
SHENJI GROUP-H: H-share price HK$2.44, A-share price RMB 6.85, premium 231.6%.
CHINA COSCO HO-H: H-share price HK$2.79, A-share price RMB 5.31, premium 124.8%.
CHINA SHENHUA-H: H-share price HK$12.34, A-share price RMB 13.95, premium 33.5%.
CHINA RAIL GR-H: H-share price HK$5.97, A-share price RMB 7.25, premium 33.4%.
CHINA SOUTHERN-H: H-share price HK$4.56, A-share price RMB 6.84, premium 77.2%.
PING AN-H: H-share price HK$34.70, A-share price RMB 32.72, premium 11.4%.

Summary of Key Information

The China PMI at 50.1 indicates continued expansion, favorable for the market.
Retail sales in April fell 7.5% yoy, showing continued weakness in the sector.
Sports stocks are highlighted for potential growth due to upcoming events like the UEFA European Championship and Rio Olympics.
WIN HANVERKY is recommended with a target price of HK$1.65 and stop-loss at HK$1.23.
The HSCEI has a lower P/E than the HSI, indicating a more attractive valuation.
The A-share premium to H-share is significant for many companies, suggesting potential for value appreciation.
Interest rates and exchange rates show mixed movements, with some declines and increases.
Precious metals and commodities have shown a mix of trends, with gold and silver slightly down, while crude oil and copper showed some gains.