20160128-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_18页_557kb

报告摘要

Summary of Morning Express Document

Core Content Overview

The document provides equity research highlights from China Merchants Securities (HK) Co., Ltd., focusing on key companies in the oil and gas, property, and other sectors, along with market indices and global commodity prices. It includes earnings forecasts, valuation analysis, and outlook for each company, as well as economic data and company events to watch.

Key Companies and Their Analysis

Sands China (1928 HK)

Current Price: HK$24.55
Rating: BUY
Target Price (TP): HK$28.1
Performance:
- 4Q15 adjusted EBITDA: US$575mn (down 19% YoY, up 7% QoQ)
- Net revenue: down 22% YoY, flat QoQ
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: 35.3% (up from 33% in 3Q15)
Outlook:
- Management believes the company is bottoming out
- Parisian project expected to open in mid-2016, aligning with estimates
- Cost savings have largely been completed in FY15
Valuation:
- 18x FY16E P/E, 14x EV/EBITDA
- Below 5-year historical average, indicating undervaluation

PetroChina (857 HK)

Current Price: HK$4.51
Rating: BUY
Target Price (TP): HK$6.4
Performance:
- 4Q15E earnings expected to rise due to one-off gains (RMB12.6bn)
- Recurring net profit expected to drop 73% YoY
Outlook:
- 2016E earnings cut by 61-85% due to oil price decline and RMB depreciation
- Expected to struggle for breakeven in 2016E
- Pipeline restructuring in 2016E is expected to bring a one-off gain of RMB28.5bn
Valuation:
- 2016E P/B of 0.6x, a 12-year low
- Attractive given potential oil price recovery and value unlocked from restructuring

CNOOC (883 HK)

Current Price: HK$7.01
Rating: BUY
Target Price (TP): HK$8.9
Performance:
- Expected to book RMB7.4bn in impairment losses in 2015E
- Net profit to drop 71% YoY in 2015E
Outlook:
- Struggles for breakeven in 2016E due to lower oil prices and production
- Cut 2015E-17E earnings projection by 13-98%
- Positive outlook for 2017E with oil price recovery
Valuation:
- 2016E P/B of 0.7x, historical trough
- Attractive given long-term oil price expectations

Wynn Macau (1128 HK)

Current Price: HK$7.68
Rating: NEUTRAL
Target Price (TP): HK$8.7
Performance:
- Delay in Wynn Palace opening likely due to contractor issues
- Contractor liable to pay HK$8-10mn for missing milestones
Outlook:
- Near-term bottom line and cash flow may benefit from contractor compensation
- Potential delay in opening affects outlook
Valuation:
- 21x FY16E P/E, 10% premium to sector average
- Preferred to 2015 openers due to lower visibility and potential delays

China Oilfield Services (2883 HK)

Current Price: HK$4.91
Rating: NEUTRAL
Target Price (TP): HK$4.5
Performance:
- Struggles for breakeven in 2016E due to low oil prices
- Net profit dropped 86% YoY in 2015E
Outlook:
- Cut 2015E-17E earnings projection by 30-80%
- Free cash flow expected to remain positive due to 40% capex cut
Valuation:
- 2016E P/B of 0.4x, two SD below historical average
- Trading at a reasonable level, but long-term outlook remains uncertain

Sinopec Oilfield Services (1033 HK)

Current Price: HK$1.62
Rating: NEUTRAL
Target Price (TP): HK$1.5
Performance:
- Expected to report losses in 2016E due to constrained upstream capex
- Turnaround in 4Q15E was due to one-off risk compensation
Outlook:
- Earnings to improve in 2017E with oil price recovery
- Expected to benefit from the Xin-Yue-Zhe gas pipeline construction
Valuation:
- 2016E P/B of 0.8x, in line with global peers
- Maintained NEUTRAL rating due to continued earnings challenges

China Wind Power Sector

Trend: Newly installed wind capacity likely to decline in 2016E
Reason: 2015 surge was due to rush installation, and tariff cuts have made developers more cautious
Forecast:
- 2016E: 27GW (11.5% decline from 2015)
- 2017E: 25GW (16.7% decline from 2015)
Goldwind (5501 SH):
- Market share expected to rise to 24% in 2017E due to market consolidation
- Earnings to remain flat in coming years
Valuation:
- Trading at 1-year forward P/E of 7.7x, 1SD below 3-year average
- Maintained NEUTRAL rating with TP of HK$11.0

China Oil and Gas Sector

Overall Outlook: More pain before gain
Oil Price Expectations:
- Short-term supported by production cost of US$29/bbl
- Long-term supported by deepwater and shale oil projects
2016E Earnings: Expected to be challenging for most players
PetroChina and CNOOC:
- Both maintain BUY ratings with lower TP
- PetroChina: TP cut to HK$6.4 (from HK$8.3)
- CNOOC: TP cut to HK$8.9 (from HK$10.8)
Valuation:
- China oil sector at 2016E P/B of 0.6x, 12-year low
- 50% discount to historical average, attractive for recovery

A-share Research Highlights

Auto & Auto Parts

Brilliance China: BUY, TP HK$12.5, 66% upside
China ZhengTong Auto: BUY, TP HK$5.48, 102% upside
Geely Automobile: BUY, TP HK$4.8, 47% upside
BAIC Motor: NEUTRAL, TP HK$8.0, 39% upside
Great Wall Motor: BUY, TP HK$12.5, 77% upside
Fuyao Glass: BUY, TP HK$20.0, 27% upside
China Harmony Auto: BUY, TP HK$6.91, 57% upside
Zhongsheng Group: NEUTRAL, TP HK$4.75, 24% upside

Oil and Gas

Sinopec Oilfield Service: NEUTRAL, TP HK$2.7, 67% upside
China Oilfield Services: NEUTRAL, TP HK$8.7, 77% upside
PetroChina: BUY, TP HK$8.3, 84% upside
CNOOC: BUY, TP HK$10.8, 54% upside

Property

China Resources Land: BUY, TP HK$23.8, 33% upside
Yuzhou Property: BUY, TP HK$2.4, 36% upside
KWG Property: NEUTRAL, TP HK$5.9, 30% upside
Country Garden: NEUTRAL, TP HK$2.7, -7% upside
Agile Property: BUY, TP HK$4.8, 38% upside
Greentown China: NEUTRAL, TP HK$7.3, 34% upside
China Overseas Land: BUY, TP HK$26.7, 25% upside
CH OVS G OCEANS: BUY, TP HK$3.0, 21% upside
Shimao Property: BUY, TP HK$17.7, 71% upside
CIFI Holdings: BUY, TP HK$2.0, 45% upside
China Merchants Land: BUY, TP HK$1.7, 63% upside

Technology, Media & Telecom

China Telecom: NEUTRAL, TP HK$4.37, 27% upside
China Unicom: BUY, TP HK$12.21, 47% upside
China Mobile: BUY, TP HK$117.5, 40% upside
Wisdom: BUY, TP HK$7.0, 81% upside
C CHUANGLIAN ED: BUY, TP HK$0.79, 464% upside
Kingdee: NEUTRAL, TP HK$2.47, not specified

What to Watch

Economic Data

U.S. Fed Funds Target Rate: Expected at 0.38%
Euro zone Business Climate: Expected at 0.39
Germany CPI Prelim MM: Expected at -1%
U.S. GDP Advance: Expected at 1.30%
U.S. Core PCE Prices: Expected at 1.30%
U.S. Employment Costs: Expected at 0.60%

Company Events

Hang Lung Group Ltd.: FIN RES/DIV (Y.E.31/12/15)
Hang Lung Properties Ltd.: FIN RES/DIV (Y.E.31/12/15)
Dynam Japan Holdings Co., Ltd.: 3RD QUARTER RES (QTR ENDED31/12/15)
Inno-Tech Holdings Ltd.: FIN RES/DIV (Y.E.30/06/15) and 1ST QUARTER RES/DIV (3-MTH- ENDED30/09/15)

Valuation Summary

PetroChina: 18x FY16E P/E, 14x EV/EBITDA
CNOOC: 12x EV/EBITDA
Wynn Macau: 21x FY16E P/E, 12x EV/EBITDA
China Oilfield Services: 4x P/B, 39.6x P/E
Sinopec Oilfield Services: 12.9x P/E, 70.0x EV/EBITDA
Goldwind: 7.7x 1-year forward P/E, 1SD below 3-year average

Conclusion

The report highlights the challenges faced by the oil and gas sector due to weakened oil prices and reduced capex, but also notes potential recovery and value unlocking from restructuring. Sands China and PetroChina are recommended as BUY due to strong performance and undervaluation. Wynn Macau and CNOOC are also recommended with NEUTRAL and BUY ratings, respectively, while China Oilfield Services and Sinopec Oilfield Services are NEUTRAL due to continued earnings pressures. The wind power sector is expected to see a decline in new capacity and a focus on efficiency and consolidation. The property sector shows mixed performance, with some companies maintaining BUY ratings despite market challenges.

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