20160711-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_18页_537kb

文档内容总结

Huaneng Renewables (958 HK)

• 核心内容: Huaneng Renewables (HNR) reported a 19% YoY increase in wind power output for June 2016 and a 31% YoY increase for the first half of FY16E, outperforming peers like Longyuan (916 HK).
• 关键信息:
  • Wind utilization for June 2016 was 140 hours (-8% YoY), while for 1HFY16E it was 1,111 hours (+5% YoY), ahead of Longyuan by 10% and 15% respectively.
  • The increase in output was mainly due to a 30% YoY growth in wind capacity, partially offset by lower wind resources and curtailment in certain regions.
  • The company's 1HFY16E net profit is expected to grow by ~58% YoY, driven by strong output and lower debt costs.
  • The analyst maintains a BUY rating with a TP of HK$3.0, citing its defensive asset layout in Zone IV, which accounts for ~63% of its installed wind capacity.
  • The analyst notes that the Min. Utilization Hours policy has not been implemented yet, and the priority grid connection contract with the grid company is still pending.

Tongda (698 HK)

• 核心内容: Tongda is expected to benefit from the growing demand for metal casings, especially in 2017E, with potential new project wins from Apple.
• 关键信息:
  • 1H16E sales and EPS growth were 27% and 34% YoY respectively.
  • The company is increasing its metal casing production capacity by >60% due to strong orders.
  • Non-unibody metal casing demand is outpacing supply, with Oppo gaining ~20% market share.
  • The hidden antenna trend is emerging, with Chinese brands adopting higher-ASP solutions.
  • The analyst lifts TP to HK$2.00 and reiterates a BUY rating, based on a 9.6x P/E multiple for FY17E.
  • The stock currently trades at 7.1x FY17E P/E, which is 28% below the sector average.

CRRC Times Electric (3898 HK)

• 核心内容: CRRC Times Electric is expected to benefit from its acquisition of the IGBT production line and the growth in urban rail transport.
• 关键信息:
  • Revenue from metro business is estimated at RMB2,491mn in 2016E and will grow at a CAGR of 30% in 2016-18E.
  • The company is expected to complete the acquisition of the IGBT business from its parent in 2016E.
  • New business segments (including IGBT, wind power, new energy vehicles, etc.) are expected to grow at an average of 20% in 2016-18E.
  • The analyst initiates with NEUTRAL rating and sets a TP of HK$38.37, based on a 1x 2016E PEG, implying a 10.8x 2017E P/E.

CRRC (1766 HK)

• 核心内容: CRRC is the leader in China's rolling stock manufacturing and is expected to benefit from urban rail transport growth, though its locomotive and EMU business may slow down.
• 关键信息:
  • Urban rail transport revenue is expected to grow at 20% /30% /30% YoY for 2016-18E.
  • Locomotive and EMU revenue is expected to decline by 3% in 2016E and remain stable in 2017-18E.
  • The company's new business segments are expected to contribute 30% of total revenue by 2018E.
  • The analyst initiates with NEUTRAL rating and sets a TP of HK$6.25, based on a 1x 2016E PEG.
  • The stock currently trades at 9.6x 2016E P/E and 11.1x 2017E P/E, slightly above the industry average.

Coolpad (2369 HK)

• 核心内容: Coolpad issued a profit warning for 1H16E, expecting a loss of HK$2.05bn, which is a significant decline from its previous profit.
• 关键信息:
  • 1H16E sales are expected to decline by 40% YoY, with 10% HoH decrease.
  • The loss is attributed to a HK$1.89bn share adjustment and a HK$170mn loss from Coolpad E-commerce.
  • The analyst reiterates SELL rating with a TP of HK$0.56, based on an 8x FY16E P/E multiple.
  • The company is still undergoing brand and sales channel restructuring, and its FY16E net profit is expected to decline by 87% YoY.

其他市场观察

• 日本刺激政策预期: 随着日本央行（BoJ）和政府可能在7月底采取进一步的货币和财政刺激措施，以应对经济放缓和自然灾害影响。
• 欧洲风险: 意大利银行系统面临严重不良贷款问题，主权评级接近垃圾级。若宪法改革公投失败，可能引发政治动荡，影响市场信心。

中国A股研究亮点

• 公司评级与目标价: 多家公司在2016年第二季度表现出强劲的业绩增长，包括 Brilliance China、Geely Automobile、Fuyao Glass 等。
• 盈利预测: 多家公司预计2016-18E的EPS将保持增长，其中部分公司如NetDragon和China Mobile的EPS增长预期显著。
• 市场估值: 多家公司当前市盈率低于行业平均，如Coolpad的市盈率显著偏低，而其他公司如Tencent的市盈率偏高。

市场数据与事件

• 经济数据发布: 包括日本机械订单、德国CPI数据、中国进出口数据等，均显示出一定的经济疲软迹象。
• 公司事件: 如 Fraser Holdings Ltd. 发布了2016年中期财报，可能对市场产生影响。

总结：

文档主要分析了多只港股和A股公司的表现及未来展望，包括风力发电、金属外壳制造、轨道交通设备、房地产、科技媒体与电信等领域。Huaneng Renewables 和 Tongda 被给予 BUY 额外评级，而 Coolpad 被给予 SELL。CRRC Times Electric 和 CRRC 则被给予 NEUTRAL。此外，文档还讨论了日本和欧洲的经济与政治风险，以及中国A股市场的研究亮点和相关数据发布。