2002年-世界发展银行全球_The_Economics_of_Tobacco_in_Turkey___New_Evidence_and_Demand_Estimates_72页_3mb

Summary of The Economics of Tobacco in Turkey: New Evidence and Demand Estimates

Core Content

This paper explores the economic impact of tobacco in Turkey, focusing on cigarette consumption, production, taxation, and the implications of tobacco control policies. It provides both aggregate and household-level analyses to understand the demand for cigarettes and the effectiveness of taxation in reducing consumption and generating revenue.

Main Points

1. Tobacco Consumption in Turkey

• Turkey has experienced a significant increase in cigarette consumption, rising by 52% from 1990 to 1999, one of the highest increases globally.
• Per capita cigarette consumption reached 136 packs per adult in 1999.
• There are three types of cigarettes: domestic filter, domestic non-filter, and foreign brand.
• Foreign brand cigarettes saw the most dramatic growth, increasing 46-fold from 1990 to 2000, reaching 32% of the market share.
• Domestic filter cigarettes also increased in consumption but lost market share from 92% to 67%.
• Non-filter cigarettes declined sharply, from 6% to less than 1% of the market share.

2. Tobacco Production and Industry Structure

• Cigarette production in Turkey began in the 19th century, with the first factory established in 1939.
• Tekel, a government-owned company, had a monopoly on cigarette production and sales until the 1980s.
• In 1984, the government allowed foreign companies to export to Turkey, but Tekel retained control over import pricing and distribution.
• By 1991, foreign companies were permitted to price and distribute their own cigarettes, leading to the entry of PhilSa (a joint venture between Philip Morris and Sabanci Holding) and R.J. Reynolds/JTI.
• Tekel's market share dropped from 82% to 70% between 1995 and 1997, while PhilSa and JTI gained prominence.

3. Tobacco Taxes and Government Revenue

• Cigarette taxes account for approximately 6% of total government revenues.
• The share of taxes from cigarettes has been decreasing as Turkey's economy modernizes and diversifies.
• Taxes on cigarettes are a major source of revenue, but the government also faces a fiscal burden due to subsidies to tobacco farmers.

4. Economic Impact of Tobacco

• Tobacco contributes only a small percentage to Turkey's exports, employment, and production.
• Cigarette production employs 0.13% of the workforce, and tobacco farming involves around 600,000 farmers, most of whom grow small quantities.
• Tobacco use has a limited impact on smoking prevalence but a stronger impact on the quantity smoked.
• Higher prices and taxes are associated with a reduction in consumption and increased government revenue.

5. Tobacco Control Policies

• The study emphasizes the importance of taxation, banning advertising, restricting smoking in public places, and providing health information to reduce tobacco use.
• These policies are effective in encouraging quitting and preventing youth initiation.
• While higher taxes can reduce consumption, they are not sufficient on their own and must be complemented with other strong measures.

Key Findings

• Taxation is a key tool in reducing cigarette consumption and increasing government revenue.
• Income and price elasticities of cigarette demand are significant, with higher prices leading to reduced consumption.
• Substitution elasticities show that consumers tend to switch from non-filter to filter and foreign cigarettes when prices rise.
• Household data indicates that while price changes have limited effect on smoking initiation, they significantly affect the number of cigarettes smoked.
• Smoking prevalence varies by education level, occupation, and gender, with drivers having the highest rate and religious leaders the lowest.
• Lower-income smokers are more sensitive to price increases and reduce consumption more significantly.

Implications for Policy

• The economic contribution of tobacco is limited, suggesting that public health measures can be implemented without significant economic loss.
• Strong tobacco control policies are necessary to reduce smoking rates and protect public health.
• Tax increases can be effective in reducing consumption, but they must be combined with comprehensive measures such as advertising bans and smoking restrictions.
• The opportunity cost of smoking is particularly high for low-income households, where resources are spent on cigarettes instead of on health and well-being.

Conclusion

The study concludes that higher tobacco taxes are beneficial in reducing tobacco use and increasing government revenue, but they must be complemented with other interventions to achieve long-term public health goals. The economic role of tobacco in Turkey is limited, and the health burden of smoking is significant, warranting stronger tobacco control policies.