2002年-世界发展银行全球_The_Costs_and_Profitability_of_Tobacco_Compared_to_Other_Crops_in_Zimbabwe_108页_2mb

Summary of "The Costs and Profitability of Tobacco Compared to Other Crops in Zimbabwe"

Core Content

This document is a discussion paper by John C. Keyser, published by the World Bank's Health, Nutrition, and Population (HNP) series. It explores the economic viability of tobacco in comparison to twelve alternative crops in Zimbabwe, including traditional and non-traditional ones. The study is based on 91 production budgets estimated in January 2001, and aims to understand the trade-offs farmers face when choosing crops to grow.

Zimbabwe's economy is heavily reliant on tobacco, which is the world's fourth largest flue-cured tobacco producer and the largest in Africa. The country exports 90% of its raw tobacco, generating around USD 600 million in annual foreign revenue, equivalent to 10% of GDP, 30% of total exports, and 50% of agricultural exports. Approximately 250,000 people (5% of the labor force) are involved in tobacco-related activities, with large-scale commercial farmers accounting for 87% of the land under tobacco and 95% of the total crop.

Main Findings

• Tobacco is highly profitable for both large and small farmers.
• It remains relatively profitable even if prices or yields drop.
• High upfront costs and labor intensity make tobacco a costly crop to grow, especially for smallholder farmers.
• Smallholder farmers often grow only small amounts of tobacco due to land suitability constraints.
• Diversification is already occurring among commercial farmers, who are investing in coffee, paprika, and horticultural exports such as roses and supermarket vegetables.
• These non-traditional crops can be grown in the same soil as tobacco and offer high returns but require specialized infrastructure and skills.
• Traditional crops like maize, cotton, and groundnuts are cheaper to produce but less profitable than tobacco, with maize being the primary staple and most important for smallholder households.

Key Information

Financial Indicators

• Tobacco generates high gross and net profits.
• Traditional crops often result in net losses when depreciation is considered.
• Non-traditional crops and horticultural exports require significant capital investment and are highly skill-intensive.

Production and Market Conditions

• Tobacco is mainly grown in Natural Region II, which is high-potential for intensive farming.
• Flue-cured tobacco is the dominant type, with high production costs.
• Global demand for tobacco is stable or gradually declining, but some analysts predict growth.
• Zimbabwe's land policy changes (2001/2002) are likely to have a greater impact on the tobacco sector than global market shifts.

Employment and Income

• Tobacco provides indirect income for smallholder households through wage labor on commercial farms.
• Total wage bill for tobacco grown on LSC farms is around USD 47.3 million.
• Diversification to other crops could help mitigate employment and income risks if tobacco demand declines.

Crop Comparison

Traditional Field Crops

• Maize: Primary staple, more important than tobacco for smallholders, mainly grown for on-farm consumption.
• Cotton: Third most valuable export, 60% to 80% of total production comes from communal and resettlement farmers.
• Groundnuts: Excellent rotation crop for tobacco, 95% produced by smallholders, mostly for domestic use.
• Soybeans: Least labor-intensive, often net loss but can finance other enterprises.
• Wheat: Cheaper to produce than cotton and groundnuts, but more profitable. However, prices were controlled until 1994, and LSC farms lack storage for wheat.

Non-Traditional Crops

• Coffee: Requires substantial investment, but offers good returns.
• Paprika: Grown in tobacco areas, but highly dependent on rainfall.
• Marigold: Grown in tobacco areas, but limited in scale.

Horticultural Exports

• Roses and supermarket vegetables are high-value export crops.
• These crops are grown mainly on LSC tobacco farms, using tobacco revenues.
• They are highly labor-intensive and require specialized infrastructure and processing facilities.
• Horticultural exports earned more than USD 124.9 million in 1999/2000, representing 1.5% of GDP.

Diversification Potential

• Commercial farmers are already diversifying into high-value crops.
• Non-traditional and horticultural crops offer diversification opportunities but face challenges such as high costs, uncertain returns, and limited scale.
• Smallholder farmers are less likely to grow non-traditional crops due to lack of extension support, infrastructure, and technical know-how.
• Technology transfer is essential for smallholder success in horticulture.
• Mushrooms, flower seeds, medical plants, and spices are also seen as potential niche products for diversification.

Conclusion

• Tobacco is highly profitable and central to Zimbabwe's economy.
• Despite its profitability, tobacco is expensive to grow, with high labor and capital requirements.
• Diversification is a strategic response to market risks and land policy changes.
• Alternative crops can provide employment and income but are still limited in scale and require investment in infrastructure and skills.
• The study does not address the impact of land occupations and resettlement, as it was conducted before these events were evident.

Methodology

• The analysis is based on 91 production budgets from January 2001.
• Crops are ranked by financial indicators such as cash required before sale, total production costs, gross and net profit, return to labor, and vulnerability to price changes.
• The study includes appendices with maps, agricultural data, yield and cost assumptions, and bibliography.

Authors and Contact

• Author: John C. Keyser
• Contact: jck@zamnet.zm
• Sponsoring Organizations: World Bank and WHO/UNICEF Youth and Tobacco Project
• Editors: Joy de Beyer, Emmanuel Guindon, Ayda Yurekli

Disclaimer

• The findings, interpretations, and conclusions are entirely those of the author.
• The World Bank and WHO are not responsible for the views expressed in this paper.