20230825-中财期货-晨会焦点_6页_246kb

市场分析总结

铝

• 8月24日铝棒社库755万吨，较8月21日上涨0.45万吨；电解铝周产量8.154万吨，涨幅0.54万吨；铝棒产量34万吨，涨幅0.64万吨。
• 关键逻辑：库存低位或支撑铝价，但云南复产、供给增加、成本下探或限制上行空间；需求处于淡旺季交替，消费偏弱。
• 建议：观望，关注商品指数及宏观情绪。

氧化铝

• 8月24日氧化铝2311合约收于2945元/吨，跌0.51%；现货广西报价升至2910元/吨。
• 关键逻辑：产能过剩、供应收缩（部分企业检修）、港口库存下降；需求提振有限，呈现震荡格局。
• 建议：观望，上下空间受限。

镍

• 镍价早间跳跌，主要因印尼廉政调查支撑预期减弱，但金九银十临近，短期或上行；宏观情绪影响大。
• 建议：跟随镍价。

玻璃

• 价格小幅下跌-0.19%，现货成交平稳；库存低位或拉涨，但需求不足，市场悲观情绪难缓解。
• 建议：观望，中长期关注政策和地产融资改善。

原油

• WTI与Brent原油期货收涨，布伦特涨幅略高；供需收紧、减产计划支撑，但非OPEC增产或缓解压力，短期震荡。

甲醇

• 社库增加，进口压力大；但MTO装置试车、需求提振或缓解供需矛盾，加工利润下降或影响成本。
• 建议：观望，震荡偏强。

天然橡胶

• 国内外产区新胶增量，需求略有支撑；库存主动去库，原料价格上涨贡献利润。
• 建议：短期偏强，中长期观望。

其他品种

• 煤焦钢：钢厂利润、高炉复产、卷强螺弱的结构、预期回调。
• 原油震荡。
• LPG成本支撑弱，库存高，PG价差矛盾。
• 压力装置高。
• 持续去库分化。
• 各个化工品重心偏弱。
• 检修、累增加快。
• 库存中高位。
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# Market Analysis Summary

##  Aluminum 
- **Inventory**: 755kt alum rod inventory +0.45m from Aug 21, production +0.54m/week (total 8.154mt), alum rod prod +0.64m/week (total 34mt).
- **Key Logic**: Low inventory supports prices but reduced demand & supply recovery limit upside; Yunnan recovery expected; consumption in transition phase.
- **Recommendation**: Wait & watch for commodity index & macro.

##  Aluminum Oxide
- **Price**: 2311 contract @2945 RMB/mt down 0.51%. Guangxi spot +15 RMB/mt to 2910 RMB/mt.
- **Key Logic**: Over-capacity pressures prices up; supply cuts (300mt/y blast furnace out for 8-15d) limit RMB 2910. Low port inventory & demand improvements.
- **Recommendation**: Wait, upside may be limited.

##  Nickel 
- Fast drop in early prices; Indonesia's anti-corruption probe may reduce SS production. Short-term upward move likely ahead of September.
- **Trend**: prices may renegotiate mid-September. Watch nickel closely.

##  Glass 
- Price fell -0.19%. Export demand improves, but domestic weak. Short-term focus: waiting for better signals.

##  Crude Oil
- WTI/Brent both rose 0.2%. Low supply, OPEC+ agreement support prices, but licit production rising. Ongoing volatility.

##  Methanol
- Party report 85.3pm, expiry next week. Import pressure on. Weak end-user demand; export demand still a support factor.

##  Natural Rubber
- Plantation output recovering. Demand improves gradually but uncertain. Inventory is in decline support prices.

## Others
- **Iron Ore**: Production up due to weather; steelmakers struggle with profits taking losses into second half.
- **LPG**: Falling prices; refining margins under pressure. Supply/demand in mud.
- **Fuels**: API & RVO feedstocks at levels. Port stocks rising.
- **Volatile chemicals**: MDM structure hold, export demand remains strong. Other sectors slower.

### Recommendations for All
- **Mixed signals** across commodities suggest caution. Look for clues from macro, policies & spec movements. Data on demand & supply chains vital.
- **Oversight**: inventory levels key.  
- **Anticipation**: September demand driven by gifts for upcoming lunar festival.

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