海湾阿拉伯国家投资机会_并网和离网型太阳能和风能项目（英文版）_20页_993kb

Summary of Investment Opportunities in the GCC: Suitability Maps for Grid-Connected and Off-Grid Solar and Wind Projects

Core Content

This document presents an analysis of renewable energy investment opportunities in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, focusing on both grid-connected and off-grid solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy systems. The analysis is based on the IRENA Global Atlas for Renewable Energy, which provides high-resolution maps and data to support strategic decision-making in the energy sector.

The study introduces an opportunity-based approach to evaluating renewable energy potential, as opposed to traditional exclusion-based methods. This approach considers multiple suitability dimensions to rank areas for development rather than simply excluding unsuitable ones. The key dimensions include:

• Resource intensity (wind speed and solar irradiance)
• Distance to power grids
• Population density
• Land cover
• Topography and slope
• Altitude
• Protected areas

These dimensions are combined using a linear transfer function to generate a suitability score for each area, ranging from 0% to 100%, which is then used to create detailed maps for the GCC region.

Main Points

• IRENA's Goal: To help countries double the global share of renewable energy by 2030, from 18% to 36%.
• Suitability Maps: The analysis provides high-resolution (1 km) maps of renewable energy suitability for the GCC, available through the IRENA Global Atlas.
• Technical Potential: The study estimates the technical potential for renewable energy projects in the GCC, assuming a 1% utilization rate of suitable land:
  • Grid-connected wind: 65 GW
  • Off-grid wind: 34 GW
  • Grid-connected solar PV: 505 GW
  • Off-grid solar PV: 283 GW
  • Total technical potential: 888 GW
• Suitability Classes:
  • 60–70%: Yellow
  • 70–80%: Orange

  • 80%: Red

• Suitability Map Example:
  • Dhofar province (Oman) shows wind suitability scores above 90%, with the 50MW Dhofar wind farm expected to represent 7% of the governorate's total installed generation capacity.
  • Dubai demonstrates high solar PV suitability, aligning with low PV electricity costs announced for recent installations.

Key Information

• Methodology: IRENA's methodology is innovative and replicable, designed to support strategic market prospection and investment decisions.
• Data Sources:
  • Wind speed data from DTU Global Wind Atlas (1 km resolution)
  • Solar irradiance from HelioClim-3 (1 km resolution)
  • Grid data from OpenStreetMap®
  • Population density from LandScan 2014
  • Topography and slope from SRTM (approx. 100 m resolution)
  • Land cover from GLC2000 (approx. 300 m resolution)
  • Protected areas from WDPA (polygons)
• Limitations:
  • Spatial resolution and data accuracy may vary depending on the dataset.
  • Local conditions such as land ownership, intermittent land use, and grid capacity are not fully captured in the larger maps.
  • Exclusion-based methods are less informative and may lead to significant variations in technical potential estimates.
• Use of Maps:
  • The maps are intended for pre-feasibility analysis and not as final assessments.
  • They are useful for identifying ideal investment locations and initiating discussions with local stakeholders and authorities.
  • Maps are continuously updated through the IRENA Global Atlas as more data becomes available.

Recommended Use

• The maps are most useful at continental and regional levels.
• They should be used in conjunction with local data for more accurate assessments.
• The opportunity-based approach provides a more nuanced understanding of renewable energy potential than traditional exclusion-based methods.
• The maps help to identify suitable areas and highlight potential investment zones, supporting both public and private entities in their energy transition planning.

Conclusion

The IRENA Global Atlas for Renewable Energy provides a valuable tool for evaluating renewable energy investment opportunities in the GCC. By integrating multiple suitability dimensions, it offers a comprehensive and replicable methodology for assessing where renewable projects are most viable. The maps and technical potential estimates serve as a strategic guide for policymakers, investors, and developers, highlighting areas with high suitability for solar and wind projects, both grid-connected and off-grid.