OPEC-2021年9月原油市场报告_2mb-96页_2mb

报告摘要

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report Summary - September 13, 2021

Core Content

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for September 13, 2021, provides an overview of global oil market dynamics, including price movements, demand and supply trends, product markets, and the broader economic context for 2021 and 2022.

Main Views and Key Information

Crude Oil Price Movements

The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) averaged $70.33/b in August, a 4.4% monthly decline.
The year-to-date average for ORB was $65.93/b, up 62.8% from the previous year.
ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI both saw significant declines, with Brent falling $3.78 m-o-m (5.1%) to $70.51/b and WTI dropping $4.72 m-o-m (6.5%) to $67.71/b.
The Brent/WTI spread widened to $2.80/b, the largest since May.
Hedge funds and money managers reduced their net long positions to the lowest since November 2020.
DME Oman crude prices also declined, reaching $69.31/b.

World Economy

Global economic growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022 remain 5.6% and 4.2%, respectively.
The OECD economy is projected to grow 6.1% in 2021 and 4.1% in 2022, with the US being a key driver.
The Euro-zone is expected to grow 4.7% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022.
Japan is forecast to grow 2.8% in 2021 and 2.0% in 2022, despite ongoing challenges from the pandemic.
China is projected to grow 8.5% in 2021 and 6.0% in 2022, with a potential slowdown in the second half of 2021.
India's growth is revised slightly downward to 9.0% in 2021, while remaining at 6.8% for 2022.
Brazil and Russia are forecast to grow 4.7% and 3.5% in 2021, and 2.5% in both years for 2022.
Inflationary pressures and sovereign debt levels are key risks that could impact the economic recovery and oil demand.

World Oil Demand

Global oil demand in 2021 is estimated to average 96.7 mb/d, up 6.0 mb/d from the previous year.
The demand growth is expected to be 4.2 mb/d in 2022, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.
OECD demand remained resilient in 3Q21, driven by rising mobility and travel.
However, 4Q21 demand is expected to decline due to the Delta variant and reduced mobility.
Asia remains a key region for demand, with China being the largest importer.

World Oil Supply

Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2021 was revised down to 0.9 mb/d, mainly due to Hurricane Ida and Mexico's offshore platform fire.
The US is a key driver of supply growth, with 0.08 mb/d year-on-year increase.
OPEC crude oil production in August increased to 26.76 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
OPEC NGLs are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in both 2021 and 2022, averaging 5.2 mb/d and 5.3 mb/d, respectively.

Product Markets and Refinery Operations

Refinery margins rose globally, supported by seasonal demand and easing mobility restrictions.
The US saw a record high in gasoline margins, while European margins were bolstered by positive barrel performance.
In Asia, jet fuel and fuel oil markets performed well, despite rising regional fuel output.
India contributed to the strengthening of regional refining economics due to increased fuel consumption.

Tanker Market

VLCC rates remained depressed due to high supply and low demand.
Suezmax and Aframax rates showed better performance in intra-Asian routes and the Atlantic basin.
The arrival of Hurricane Ida affected Gulf Coast refineries, temporarily supporting dirty Aframax rates and depressing clean rates.

Crude and Refined Products Trade

US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in August, while crude exports reached 3.0 mb/d.
US product imports increased to 2.6 mb/d, and product exports averaged 5.3 mb/d.
China increased its crude imports to 10.5 mb/d in August, after a period of flat imports.
India's crude imports continued to fall, averaging 3.6 mb/d in July, but positive expectations remain for August.
Japan's crude imports averaged 2.1 mb/d in July, impacted by the state of emergency and uncertainty in product demand.

Commercial Stock Movements

OECD commercial oil stocks increased by 10.5 mb in July, reaching 2,912 mb.
Crude stocks fell by 5.6 mb, while product stocks rose by 16.1 mb.
OECD crude stocks were 106.9 mb below the five-year average, and product stocks were 15.1 mb below the five-year average.
Days of forward cover increased slightly to 63.7 days in July.

Balance of Supply and Demand

OPEC crude demand in 2021 is revised up to 27.7 mb/d, an increase of 4.9 mb/d from the previous year.
OPEC crude demand in 2022 is expected to rise to 28.7 mb/d, up 1.1 mb/d from 2021.

Conclusion

The report highlights a mixed outlook for the global oil market, with price declines and uncertainty in demand due to the pandemic and supply chain disruptions. Despite these challenges, OPEC and non-OPEC producers are working to stabilize the market through coordinated production adjustments. The global economy is projected to recover in 2021 and 2022, driven by government stimulus and containment efforts, but continued monitoring is required due to the uncertainty surrounding virus variants, inflation, and sovereign debt levels.