2017年-世界发展银行全球_Myanmar_Economic_Monitor_October_2017___Capitalizing_on_Investment_Opportunities_83页_2mb

Myanmar Economic Monitor - October 2017: Capitalizing on Investment Opportunities

Core Content

The Myanmar Economic Monitor (MEM) provides an analysis of economic developments, prospects, and policy priorities in Myanmar, drawing on data from the Government of Myanmar and the World Bank Group. The report highlights the country's macroeconomic stability, but notes a slowdown in growth and challenges in converting investment commitments into actual flows.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Growth

• Myanmar's economic growth slowed to 5.9% in 2016/17 from 7% in 2015/16.
• Growth is projected to recover to 6.4% in 2017/18, though risks remain due to regional tensions and potential reform delays.
• The average growth rate for EMDEs in 2016 was 3.5%, which Myanmar exceeded.

Foreign Trade and Investment

• FDI commitments declined in 2016/17, but external debt disbursements began to increase.
• Merchandise exports shifted from gas to garments, with garments exports rising sharply.
• FDI commitments were concentrated in sectors like energy, manufacturing, and telecommunications.
• Private investment slowed due to uncertainty over the government's reform agenda.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

• Inflation eased from 10% in 2015/16 to 6.8% in 2016/17.
• Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) depreciated by 9% between August 2016 and March 2017.
• Money supply growth decelerated from 26% to 19% over the same period.
• Interest rates remained low, with real rates only slightly positive, despite efforts to improve monetary discipline.

Fiscal Policy

• The fiscal deficit narrowed to 3% of GDP in 2016/17 from 4.4% in 2015/16.
• Government revenue improved due to tax reforms, but public investment decreased to 5% of GDP.
• The 2017/18 Union Budget showed improvements in budget transparency.

External Position

• Myanmar recorded a balance of payments surplus of 1.4% by end of 2016/17.
• Foreign exchange reserves improved slightly, reaching around 3 months of imports by March 2017.
• The current account deficit was supported by service exports and incoming transfers.

Economic Outlook and Policies

Medium-Term Outlook

• Growth is projected to average 6.8% over the medium-term, slightly lower than the earlier forecast of 7.1%.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to fall further to 5.2% in 2017/18.
• Downside risks include rising energy prices, security tensions in Rakhine State, and global economic headwinds such as protectionism and stagnant commodity prices.

Policy Priorities

• Monetary and fiscal discipline is critical to sustain macroeconomic stability.
• Interest rates should be allowed to reflect market conditions to support financial market development.
• Fiscal adjustment should focus on revenue mobilization, expenditure reprioritization, and more efficient borrowing.
• Structural reforms are needed in finance, energy, and business regulations to improve investment climate and productivity.

Special Topics

Regional Growth Convergence

• Growth has been unevenly distributed across states/regions, contributing to income inequality.
• Per capita income varies significantly, from Kyat 1.7 million in Yangon to Kyat 400,000 in Chin.
• Regional convergence has not occurred over the past five years due to conflicts, concentration of economic activity, and low agricultural productivity.
• Labor mobility is a key factor in some equalization of conditions, but convergence is expected as growth continues.

Job Creation

• Over 24 million people are employed in Myanmar, with low productivity in agriculture and manufacturing.
• Formal sector employment accounts for 11% of total jobs, with SMEs making up 80% of formal employment.
• Informal sector dominates, with only 5% of workers benefiting from social protections.
• Policy options include:
  • Expanding formal sector jobs through SME support and GVC integration.
  • Diversifying and integrating agricultural value chains.
  • Improving micro-enterprise access to finance.
  • Enhancing job-relevant skills to prepare for a modern labor market.

State Economic Enterprises (SEEs)

• SEEs account for more than a third of government expenses and receipts.
• There are 32 SEEs, down from 44 in 2011/12, with some absorbed into line ministries.
• Fiscal risks remain due to fragmented oversight, low-quality reporting, and non-compliant financial disclosures.
• SEE losses increased to 0.7% of GDP in 2015/16 due to higher operating costs and declining sales.
• A comprehensive SEE reform is recommended, including:
  • A differentiated approach to SEE management.
  • Performance monitoring through standardized reporting.
  • Customized dividend policies based on financial conditions.
  • A move towards a centralized ownership structure in the medium-term.

Key Contributors and Support

• The report was prepared by a team led by Habib Rab, with support from various World Bank experts and government ministries.
• It was generously supported by the Myanmar Partnership Multi-Donor Trust Fund from the UK, Australia, and Denmark.

Conclusion

The MEM emphasizes the need for continued reform, investment in key sectors, and fiscal and monetary discipline to sustain growth and reduce inequality. While private consumption remains robust, investment demand has slowed, requiring policy clarity and structural improvements to unlock further economic potential.