2017年-世界发展银行全球_Jordan_Economic_Monitor_Spring_2017___The_Green_Economic_Boost_55页_1mb

报告摘要

JORDAN ECONOMIC MONITOR - SUMMARIZED CONTENT

Core Content

The Jordan Economic Monitor provides an overview of key economic developments and policy changes in Jordan over the past six months, with a focus on macroeconomic performance, fiscal policy, external position, and monetary policy. It also highlights the implications of these changes on the country's outlook and includes special focus areas on green growth and the welfare impact of recent price changes in electricity and water.

Main Points

Economic Growth and Performance

Jordan's economy has been sluggish, with growth slowing to 2.0% in 2016 from 2.4% in 2015, continuing to lag behind the MENA region's average of 2.7%.
The slowdown is attributed to several factors:
- A weakening mining and quarrying sector, particularly due to declining global potash prices.
- Impact of the Syrian crisis, including closure of trade routes to Iraq and Syria, which affected exports.
- Lower tourism and limited private demand since 2014.
The output gap turned negative in 2015 and widened further in 2016, indicating that the economy is operating below its potential.

Labor Market

Unemployment reached 18.2% in Q1-2017, with lower labor force participation and employment rates.
Women face worse conditions than men in the labor market.
The labor market has deteriorated significantly due to limited job creation, economic weakness, and perceived competition from refugees.

Inflation

Jordan experienced deflation in 2016, with Consumer Price Inflation averaging -0.8% due to falling oil prices and lower food prices.
Core inflation (excluding fuel, transportation, and food) averaged 2.2%.
Inflation picked up in late 2016 and is expected to accelerate in 2017 due to rising oil prices and fiscal measures aimed at reducing the deficit.

Fiscal Policy

The fiscal deficit narrowed to 3.2% of GDP in 2016 and 0.26% in Q1-2017 (excluding grants).
Despite improvements, debt remains high at 95.4% of adjusted GDP.
The government has introduced austerity measures and fiscal adjustment reforms, which have sparked protests.

External Position

The current account deficit widened slightly in 2016 due to lower current transfers, including a 2.4% contraction in remittances.
Trade in goods deficit narrowed as imports declined by 6.2% and exports deteriorated by 4.1%.
Foreign currency reserves declined to US$11.4 billion by end-April 2017, but still cover 7.8 months of imports.

Monetary Policy

The Central Bank of Jordan tightened monetary policy starting in December 2016, raising key policy rates by 100 bps to maintain the JD-USD deposit rate spread.
Dollarization of deposits reached 19.5% by end-March 2017, the highest since December 2013, partly due to one-off factors.
Real interest rates remained low due to inflationary pressures.

Prospects

Economic growth is expected to remain tepid in the medium term.
Growth is projected to rise to 2.3% in 2017 due to improvements in tourism and exports.
Growth is forecasted to average 2.6% between 2017 and 2019 as some business climate reforms take effect.
The current account is expected to narrow in 2017 due to higher current transfers, and tend to 6% of GDP by 2019.
Fiscal and debt-to-GDP ratios will improve as Jordan adheres to the IMF Extended Fund Facility Program, despite higher borrowing costs.

Special Focus

I. A Time for Green Growth and Climate Action

Jordan has committed to climate action and green growth, aligning with international climate goals.
Key sectors for green growth include energy, water, waste, transport, tourism, and agriculture.
Climate finance and climate-smart fiscal policy are critical to supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy.
Strategic structural reforms are necessary to vitalize green growth and address transition costs.

II. Welfare Impact of Recent Price Changes in Electricity and Water

Short-term welfare impacts of electricity and water tariff reforms have been limited, but targeted social protection measures are recommended to mitigate future impacts on the poor.
Household expenditures on electricity and water are still modest by international standards.
Tariff reforms between 2010 and 2016 have resulted in welfare losses, with Scenario A (including groundwater tariff increases for industry) showing higher losses than Scenario B.
Combined effects of electricity and water tariff increases increased welfare losses significantly, highlighting the need for social safety nets.

Key Abbreviations

bps: Basis points
H1, H2: First and second half of the year
3mma: Three-months moving average
pp: Percentage points
Q1-Q4: First to fourth quarter of the year
sa: Seasonally adjusted
saar: Seasonally adjusted, annual rate
yoy: Year-on-year
EMRC: Energy and Minerals Regulatory Commission
GHG: Greenhouse Gases
IMF: International Monetary Fund
MOPIC: Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation
NEPCO: National Electric Power Company
NDC: Nationally Determined Contribution
RE: Renewable Energy
SME: Small and Medium Enterprise
USD: United States Dollar
WAJ: Water Authority of Jordan

Conclusion

Jordan's economic outlook remains challenging, with sluggish growth, high unemployment, and elevated debt levels. Green growth and climate action are seen as vital strategies to address long-term vulnerabilities and stimulate sustainable development. Targeted social protection measures are recommended to mitigate the impact of future tariff increases on low-income households. Strategic structural reforms and coordinated policy actions are essential to reinvigorate the economy and achieve long-term growth.