2015年-世界发展银行全球_Myanmar_Economic_Monitor_October_2015___Staying_the_Course_on_Economic_Reforms_50页_2mb

Myanmar Economic Monitor Summary

Core Content

The Myanmar Economic Monitor (MEM) is a periodic report that evaluates economic developments, highlights prospects, and outlines policy priorities in Myanmar. It draws on data from the Government of Myanmar and additional information from the World Bank Group's monitoring and policy dialogue. The report emphasizes the role of economic reforms in fostering growth and confidence, despite ongoing challenges in the business environment and socio-political landscape.

Main Drivers of Growth

• Real GDP Growth: Myanmar's economy grew at an estimated 8.5% in real terms in 2014/15, outperforming regional peers.
• Growth Drivers:
  • Public consumption and private investment on the demand side.
  • Services sector expansion on the production side, particularly telecommunications.
• Sectoral Contributions:
  • Services contributed over 4 percentage points to overall growth.
  • Manufacturing and industry growth was strong, driven by natural resources, especially gas.
  • Agriculture rebounded after two years of weak performance, with crop output increasing from 0.6% to 4.2% real growth.

Key Challenges

• Floods:
  • Severely impacted agriculture, especially rice production, and affected relatively poorer households.
  • Flood damage was concentrated in Ayeyarwady, Bago, Magwe, Rakhine, and Sagaing.
  • Over 1.29 million acres of farmland were damaged, including 687,200 acres of rice paddy.
• Exchange Rate Pressures:
  • The Kyat depreciated by about 20% in nominal terms by August 2015 due to a strong USD, current account deficit, and slowing foreign investment.
  • The Central Bank's efforts to allow further depreciation have helped reduce the parallel market.
• Inflation:
  • Inflationary pressures rose, reaching 10% in the year to July 2015, driven mainly by food prices.
  • Processed food prices increased, affecting urban and rural poor.
• Current Account Deficit:
  • Increased to over 6% of GDP in 2014/15 due to strong demand for investment-related capital imports.

Fiscal Policy

• Union Budget:
  • The 2014/15 budget deficit was estimated at 4% of GDP.
  • Strong revenue performance was partly due to telecom license receipts.
  • Reforms in tax administration (e.g., self-assessment, Large Taxpayers' Office) are improving collections.
• Spending Trends:
  • Spending on social sectors and economic services increased as a share of GDP.
  • Efforts to rebalance public spending towards recurrent social expenditures are essential.

Economic Outlook

• 2015/16 Growth:
  • Expected to moderate to 6.5% in real terms, subject to flood impacts.
  • Agriculture is projected to decline due to floods, while manufacturing and industry may remain slow due to political transition.
• Inflation:
  • Projected to rise to 11.3% in 2015/16 due to supply pressures from floods and currency depreciation.
• External Challenges:
  • Slowing Chinese growth may reduce demand for Myanmar's exports.
  • Low international commodity prices may affect gas exports, but could be offset by higher output and Kyat earnings.
  • The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes could further strengthen the USD and affect the exchange rate.

Policy Priorities

• Exchange Rate Flexibility:
  • Maintaining flexibility and monetary discipline is crucial for short-term macroeconomic stability.
• Minimum Wage Policy:
  • Needs strong institutional arrangements to ensure efficient labor markets.
• Structural Reforms:
  • Strengthening the business environment through legislation such as the Investment Law and Companies Law.
  • Modernizing the banking sector with the Banking and Financial Institutions Law.
  • Improving public debt management with the Public Debt Law.
• Financial Inclusion:
  • Access to finance remains a significant constraint, especially for poorer households.
• Banking Supervision:
  • Strengthening banking supervision is a priority to avoid risks and improve sector resilience.

Data Sources and Support

• The MEM team acknowledges the support of various government ministries and the World Bank Group's regional experts.
• Collaboration with the Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM), Central Statistical Organization (CSO), and other agencies is essential for data collection and analysis.
• The report also thanks the European Union (EU) and United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) for their data and insights.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Real GDP growth 2011-2014

• Figure 2: Real GDP growth (average for 5 years after liberalization)

• Figure 3: Sector contribution to real GDP growth

• Figure 4: Contribution to service sector growth

• Figure 5: Merchandise trade after liberalization (% of GDP)

• Figure 6: Trade facilitation services (tonnage)

• Figure 7: Crude oil (barrels '000)

• Figure 8: Cement production (Ton)

• Figure 9: Sector growth rate (%)

• Figure 10: Sector share of GDP 2010 vs 2014

• Figure 11: Rice wholesale prices in Myanmar and Vietnam (US$/ton)

• Figure 12: Agriculture growth and income per farmer

• Figure 13: Townships affected by the floods

• Figure 14: Welfare index among townships affected by floods

• Figure 15: Trade account (US$ m)

• Figure 16: Government vs. private imports

• Figure 17: Goods exports (US$ m)

• Figure 18: Contribution to export growth (% yoy)

• Figure 19: Share of goods exports in the first 11 months of 2014/15 (%)

• Figure 20: Rice production and exports (2014/15)

• Figure 21: Contribution to import growth (% yoy)

• Figure 22: Fuel pump price 2014-15

• Figure 23: Bilateral trade (US$ m)

• Figure 24: Bilateral trade and exchange rate: Singapore

• Figure 25: Number and value (US$ m) of FDI projects (Mar 2014-Feb 2015)

• Figure 26: FDI by country (2014-15)

• Figure 27: Contribution to yearly inflation (%)

• Figure 28: Contribution to monthly inflation (%)

• Figure 29: Inflation in selected countries in the region (yoy %)

• Figure 30: Contribution to yearly food inflation (%)

• Figure 31: International food and fuel prices (% change)

• Figure 32: Non-food inflation drivers (% yoy)

• Figure 33: CBM Assets and Reserve Money

• Figure 34: CBM Net Domestic Assets

• Figure 35: CBM Net Domestic Assets (% change qoq)

• Figure 36: Monetary aggregates (Jan 2013 = 100)

• Figure 37: Annual contribution to growth in Broad Money M2 (percentage points)

• Figure 38: Commercial Bank Assets (MMK Billion)

• Figure 39: Interest rates (%)

• Figure 40: Capital Adequacy of Private Banks

• Figure 41: Commercial bank lending by sector (% share)

• Figure 42: Banking sector liquidity (loans/deposits)

• Figure 43: Nominal exchange rate (US$ vs. Local currency) (% change, yoy)

• Figure 44: Official and parallel exchange rates

• Figure 45: Real Effective Exchange Rates

• Figure 46: Gross reserves (US$ billion cumulative change)

• Table 1: Selected economic indicators, projections 2015-2017

• Table 2: Basic set indicators on financial inclusion

Boxes

• Box 1: Myanmar classified as Lower Middle Income in 2014/15 based on GNI per capita.
• Box 2: Exchange rate liberalization in transition economies.
• Box 3: Macroeconomic impact of floods.
• Box 4: Institutional arrangements for implementing minimum wage policy.
• Box 5: Key features of draft Banking and Financial Institutions Law.

Conclusion

The MEM outlines a mixed economic outlook for Myanmar, with continued growth supported by reforms and private investment, but also highlights vulnerabilities such as inflation, exchange rate pressures, and the impact of natural disasters on agriculture and vulnerable populations. The report underscores the need for sustained reforms, improved fiscal management, and stronger institutional frameworks to ensure long-term economic stability and inclusive growth.