2016年-世界发展银行全球_Myanmar_Economic_Monitor_May_2016___Growing_Economic_Vulnerabilities_60页_1mb

报告摘要

Myanmar Economic Monitor Summary

Core Content

The Myanmar Economic Monitor (MEM) provides an analysis of recent economic developments and outlines key policy priorities for Myanmar. It highlights the challenges faced by the economy during 2015-2016, including a supply shock from heavy flooding, a slowdown in investment due to political and structural constraints, and a difficult external environment marked by declining commodity prices. Despite these challenges, the economy has shown resilience, and the outlook for growth remains positive, though with some downside risks.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Growth

Growth Rate: Myanmar's economy grew at 8.5% annually in 2013-2014, but this slowed to 7% in 2015-2016 due to supply shocks, political transition, and external pressures.
Sector Contributions: The agriculture sector contributed less than 10% to overall growth, with a significant slowdown to 2% in 2015-2016, compared to 5.6% in the previous year.
Resilience: The services sector helped sustain growth, even as other areas faced challenges.

Challenging External Environment

Global and Regional Slowdown: The global economy and the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region experienced a slowdown, with EAP growth falling to 6.5% in 2015 from 6.8% in 2014.
Commodity Prices: Declining international commodity prices, especially in oil and gas, negatively impacted Myanmar's export earnings and contributed to a growing trade deficit.
Trade Deficit: The trade deficit increased due to a decline in exports and a deceleration in imports, with exports falling by 12% in nominal terms during 2015-2016.

Domestic Manufacturing

Competition: Domestic manufacturing, particularly food processing, faces more competition from cheaper imports due to weak domestic supply chains and limited access to affordable finance.
Sector Vulnerability: The sector is vulnerable to changes in agricultural supply and input costs, and its narrow base and low value addition are key concerns.

Inflation and Exchange Rate

Inflationary Pressures: Inflation peaked at 16% (year-on-year) in October 2015 due to agricultural supply shocks and falling commodity prices.
Exchange Rate Instability: The Kyat has weakened, leading to exchange rate pressures and affecting the competitiveness of exports.

Fiscal Policy

Budget Deficit: The Union Budget deficit is projected to average 3.5% of GDP over the medium-term.
Fiscal Adjustments: Efforts to improve fiscal discipline and reduce inflationary pressures are needed, including better management of public debt and reducing revenue leakage.

Economic Outlook

Growth Projection: Real GDP growth is expected to rise to 7.8% in 2016-2017 and average 8.2% per year over the medium-term.
Agriculture Recovery: The agriculture sector is expected to recover, though El Niño-related droughts pose a risk.
Investment Drivers: Growth in services and infrastructure (especially power and transport) will be key drivers in the medium to long-term.

Policy Priorities

Exchange Rate System: Establishing a well-functioning exchange rate system is critical for sustaining trade and investment opportunities.
State-Owned Bank Reforms: Reforming SOBs to improve transparency, corporate governance, and efficiency is a priority.
Electricity Access: Improving access to electricity and implementing a more efficient pricing and subsidy system is essential for economic growth and competitiveness.
Tax Reforms: Reducing revenue leakage and implementing a clear, consistent tax incentive policy for the private sector is necessary for fiscal sustainability.

Key Figures and Tables

Figure 1: Investment commitments Q1-Q3 (US$ m)
Figure 2: Sector contribution to growth (% change)
Figure 3: Share of agriculture losses and output (%)
Figure 4: Flood impacts in selected countries (% of GDP)
Figure 5: Paddy production, Myanmar ('000 tons)
Figure 6: Indices of rice prices and exchange rate, Myanmar
Figure 7: SEE petroleum and petrochemical products
Figure 8: Industry output from selected SEEs
Figure 9: Gas sector output (cf m and % change yoy)
Figure 10: Gas wellhead production (MMSCF)
Figure 11: Sector composition of GDP (% share)
Figure 12: State/Region contribution to growth (% change)
Figure 13: Households with a current or returned migrant by year of departure (%)
Figure 14: Employment in destination sites by sector
Figure 15: Trade flows and balance (US$ bn, quarterly)
Figure 16: Trade growth (Q1-Q3, % change)
Figure 17: Myanmar non-gas and non-industry export volumes and values (6-m moving average)
Figure 18: Developing Asia export volumes and values (yoy change in 12-month moving average)
Figure 19: Contribution to export growth (% yoy)
Figure 20: Volume and value of gas exports
Figure 21: Volume and value of agriculture exports
Figure 22: Wholesale rice prices
Figure 23: Contribution to import growth (% yoy)
Figure 24: Private and Government imports (US$ m)
Figure 25: Border trade (January 2014 = 100)
Figure 26: Maritime trade (January 2014 = 100)
Figure 27: Consolidated public sector spending and revenue
Figure 28: Fiscal balances (% of GDP)
Figure 29: Net domestic financing (Kyat billion)
Figure 30: Net claims on government Q1-Q3 (Kyat billion)
Figure 31: Treasury Bonds outstanding (Kyat million)
Figure 32: Outstanding domestic debt (Kyat million)
Figure 33: Treasury Bill auction results (Kyat billion)
Figure 34: Share of net financing (%)
Figure 35: Breakdown of tax receipts (% of GDP)
Figure 36: Tax and customs collections (% change yoy)
Figure 37: Contribution to expenditure growth (% change)
Figure 38: Military vs. health and education expenditure (% of general government expenditure)
Figure 39: Operational balance of selected SEEs (% of GDP)
Figure 40: Inflation contribution by component
Figure 41: Inflation dynamics
Figure 42: Evolution of the distribution of price component increases
Figure 43: Nominal Effective Exchange Rate
Figure 44: Real Effective Exchange Rate
Figure 45: Range of Kyat-USD Parallel Rate
Figure 46: Official and Parallel Exchange Rates
Figure 47: Bids and offers submitted daily at the foreign exchange auction
Figure 48: Total daily turnover in the interbank foreign exchange market
Figure 49: Daily Auction Results
Figure 50: FDI commitments by sector
Figure 51: Agriculture productivity and structural transformation
Figure 52: Gas production by field
Figure 53: Commodity price indices (monthly)
Figure 54: General government balance, revenue and debt, 2014 (% of GDP)
Figure 55: Redemption of government bonds

Key Tables

Table 1: Beans and pulses production, Myanmar (2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16)
Table 2: Industry State Economic Enterprises (Kyat million)
Table 3: Myanmar Gross Domestic Product (Kyat billion)
Table 4: East Asia and Pacific - GDP growth (2013-2015)
Table 5: Myanmar selected social indicators

Policy Watch Highlights

Access to Electricity

A key priority for productivity and competitiveness.
The financial viability of the power sector is critical and depends on gas pricing and electricity distribution tariffs.
Three policy options are proposed: gas pricing framework, electricity tariff adjustment, and targeted subsidies.

Reform of State-Owned Banks

SOBs still account for over 50% of the banking sector's assets.
Challenges include low transparency, outdated technology, unclear mandates, and weak corporate governance.
Reform priorities include clarifying ownership and policy mandates, improving legal frameworks, and enhancing transparency and disclosure.

Conclusion

The Myanmar Economic Monitor underscores the need for sound macroeconomic policies, institutional reforms, and improved financial sector management to navigate the current economic challenges and sustain growth. While the economy has shown resilience, it faces short-term vulnerabilities that require careful policy interventions to ensure long-term stability and inclusive growth.

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