《移民与发展简报》英-49页_2mb

Summary

Global remittance flows rose by 8% in 2022, reaching $647 billion, but are expected to slow to a mere 1.4% increase by 2023. Key drivers were the high-skilled migration recovery from OECD countries in 2022, particularly the United States, loose GCC inflation control, and energy price hikes. However, 2023 growth faces pressure from slowing high-income economies, migratory layoffs in the U.S., and potential remittance channel shifts to informal networks due to deteriorating economic conditions in recipient countries.

Regional Trends

Remittances remain a major source of external financing for LMICs, particularly crucial for fragile economies in Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of East Asia. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) led growth (3.3%) due to robust U.S. labor markets, remaining the second-largest recipient globally. In contrast, South Asia is projected to see the weakest growth (0.3%) due to skills-based employment declines in the OECD and reduced labor demand in GCC countries, pushing flows toward informal channels. ECA growth slowed to 1% in 2023, due to a high base from Russian remittances, normalization signs post-war, and lingering Ukraine/Russia issues. Africa's remittances increased by 6% in 2022, supporting current accounts, but face policy risks and high costs.

Key Determinants and Costs

Macro variables dominating remittance dynamics include oil prices and exchange rates, amplifying valuation effects and pushing flows toward informal channels in countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The global average cost remained high at 6.2% in Q4 2022, more than double the UN SDG target, though South Asia was the cheapest region, and Sub-Saharan Africa the most expensive. Different corridors vary significantly in cost, access, and formality.

Migration Trends and Informality

Transit migration dominates Latin American flows, especially to Mexico and Guatemala, amplified by Title 42 repeal driving irregular crossings. Climate shocks and conflicts elsewhere—an ongoing Sahel drought, Horn of Africa floods, Sudan’s crisis—are spurring shifts, crowdeding Central-Mediterranean routes, and intense Turkey-Arabia airlifts, particularly for Syria and Ukraine.

Data and Policy Improvements

A formal collaboration (RemitStat) under the World Bank’s KNOMAD aims to standardize remittance data collection and better grasp informal flows. Addressing valuation issues, increasing frequency and granularity, and fostering interoperability (e.g., Pan-African payment systems via AfCFTA) are priorities for improving remittance data quality and service delivery.