2008年-世界发展银行全球_Outlook_for_Remittance_Flows_2008-2010___Growth_Expected_to_Moderate_Significantly_But_Flows_to_Remain_Resilient_14页_761kb

Summary of Outlook for Remittance Flows 2008-2010

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of remittance flows to developing countries between 2008 and 2010, highlighting the effects of the global financial crisis on these flows. It emphasizes the resilience of remittances compared to other forms of capital flows, despite expected declines in certain regions.

Main Points

• Growth Moderation: Remittance flows to developing countries, which had been growing strongly for several years, began to slow down significantly in the third quarter of 2008. The slowdown is expected to deepen in 2009, though the exact magnitude is uncertain.

• Nominal Growth vs. Real Terms: In nominal dollar terms, remittances are projected to increase to $283 billion in 2008 from $265 billion in 2007. However, in real terms, they are expected to fall from 2.0% of GDP in 2007 to 1.8% in 2008. The decline is less severe than private or official capital flows.

• Regional Trends:

  • Flows from the US and Western Europe to Latin America and the Caribbean slowed due to economic downturns and tighter immigration enforcement.
  • Flows from GCC countries to Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia grew rapidly.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa experienced a sharp slowdown, partly due to the moderation in Nigeria's remittance inflows.

• Resilience of Remittances: Remittances are expected to remain relatively resilient compared to private capital flows and official aid, especially in the face of economic downturns in both source and recipient countries.

• Uncertainties: The outlook for remittances is highly uncertain due to factors such as global economic growth, commodity prices, and exchange rates. The analysis is intended to highlight risks rather than provide precise forecasts.

Key Information

• Top Remittance Recipients: India, China, and Mexico are expected to remain the top three recipients of remittances in 2008. Other top recipients include the Philippines, Poland, Nigeria, Romania, Egypt, Bangladesh, and Pakistan.

• Resilience in Small Economies: Countries where remittances constitute a large share of GDP, such as Tajikistan, Moldova, Tonga, Lesotho, and Honduras, are expected to see a decline in remittance growth, but the flows will still remain positive.

• Impact of Oil Prices: The decline in oil prices negatively affects remittances from GCC countries, which are major sources for countries in South Asia and the Middle East and North Africa.

• Exchange Rates: The weakening of the US dollar against the euro in 2008 increased the value of remittances in local currency terms. A stronger dollar in 2009 could reduce the value of remittances in dollar terms.

• Migration Trends: While migration flows may slow due to the global economic slowdown, the stock of international migrants from developing countries is unlikely to decrease significantly.

Outlook for 2009-2010

• Base Case Scenario: Remittance flows to developing countries are expected to slow to -0.9% in 2009 and recover to 6.1% in 2010. The decline is expected to be more pronounced in the Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa.

• Low Case Scenario: A more severe decline is possible, with remittance flows expected to fall by 5.7% in 2009. This scenario assumes a significant reduction in migrant stock in high-income countries, particularly in the US, EU15, and GCC.

• Sectoral Resilience: Migrants in cyclically-sensitive sectors (e.g., construction) are more vulnerable to economic downturns, while those in stable sectors (e.g., healthcare) are less so.

• Impact on Recipient Countries: Remittance-receiving households in countries such as India, Mexico, Bangladesh, Morocco, Nigeria, Romania, and the Philippines are vulnerable to a slowdown in remittances.

Conclusion

Despite the global financial crisis, remittance flows to developing countries are expected to remain more resilient than private capital flows and official aid. While the growth rate will moderate, the overall volume is likely to stay robust, especially in regions less dependent on the US and Europe. The analysis underscores the importance of understanding the risks and uncertainties in the context of global economic conditions and exchange rate fluctuations.