2010年-世界发展银行全球_Outlook_for_Remittance_Flows_2010-11___Remittance_Flows_to_Developing_Countries_Remained_Resilient_in_2009_Expected_to_Recover_During_2010-11_18页_1mb

Summary of Outlook for Remittance Flows 2010-11

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of remittance flows to developing countries during and after the 2009 global financial crisis, focusing on regional trends, the factors influencing remittance resilience, and the role of remittances in external financing and development. It is authored by Dilip Ratha, Sanket Mohapatra, and Ani Silwal.

Main Points

1. Remittance Trends in 2009

• Officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries in 2009 were $316 billion, a 6% decline from $336 billion in 2008.
• Remittances were more resilient than private capital flows during the crisis.
• Remittance flows declined in various regions:
  • Latin America and the Caribbean by 12%.
  • Eastern Europe and Central Asia by 21%.
  • Middle East and North Africa by 8%.
  • East Asia and the Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa remained relatively flat.
• In South Asia, remittance growth slowed to 5% in 2009, compared to higher pre-crisis growth.
• India saw almost flat remittance flows between 2008 and 2009, with a sharp decline in the first quarter offset by growth in the remaining quarters.

2. Top Remittance Recipients

• The top 20 recipients of migrant remittances in 2009 included:
  • India, China, Mexico, and the Philippines as the largest recipients.
  • Bangladesh, Nigeria, Poland, Pakistan, Egypt, and Lebanon as other significant recipients.
  • Some high-income countries such as France, Spain, Germany, Belgium, and the UK also received large remittance flows, though they represent a small share of GDP.
• In smaller economies, remittances often constitute more than 25% of GDP, serving as a critical lifeline for the poor.

3. Factors Influencing Remittance Resilience

• Diversified migration destinations enhance remittance resilience.
• Lower barriers to labor mobility create stronger links between remittances and economic cycles.
• Exchange rate fluctuations affect remittances through valuation effects and influence consumption and investment motives.

4. Regional Analysis

• Latin America and the Caribbean: Remittance flows bottomed out in late 2009 and are expected to recover alongside the U.S. economic recovery.
• South Asia: Remittances continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace, and were less affected by the crisis due to diversified migration and income stability.
• Middle East and North Africa: Remittances fell more than expected, influenced by the depreciation of the ruble and larger-than-anticipated declines in Poland and Romania.
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Remittance flows declined modestly, with sparse data available.

5. Haiti and the Impact of the Earthquake

• The 2010 earthquake in Haiti led to increased remittances, as family members abroad sent funds to support relatives.
• The U.S. Temporary Protected Status (TPS) granted to Haitians in the U.S. allowed them to send money more efficiently.
• Remittances to Haiti are expected to increase significantly if TPS is extended.
• Despite the crisis, remittances remained the first form of financial support to arrive in times of distress.

6. Leveraging Remittances for Development

• Remittances are now being used in sovereign ratings and debt sustainability analysis.
• In middle-income countries, remittances are factored into sovereign ratings.
• In low-income countries, remittances help reduce current account deficits and support external financing.
• The World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Framework now includes remittances in evaluating a country’s ability to repay external obligations.
• Remittances contributed to Philippines' ability to issue a $750 million bond during the crisis.
• Bangladesh received a BB- rating from Standard & Poor’s and Ba3 from Moody’s, with remittances cited as a key factor.

7. Diaspora Bonds as a Financing Tool

• Countries are exploring diaspora bonds to tap into overseas capital.
• These bonds are being considered or issued by countries such as El Salvador, Ethiopia, Nepal, the Philippines, Rwanda, and Sri Lanka.
• Diaspora bonds offer a stable and cheap source of external financing, especially in times of financial stress.
• They provide investment opportunities for diaspora members and can attract institutional investors if rated to investment grade.

8. Structural and Policy Changes in Remittance Markets

• Efforts to reduce remittance costs have intensified due to the financial crisis.
• Mobile money transfer technologies are being adopted in Africa, particularly in Kenya (M-Pesa) and Kuwaiti operators (Zain Zap).
• In South Asia, Bangladesh is launching mobile remittance services in partnership with banks, reducing transfer times from 4-5 days to 1 day.
• A remittance card in Bangladesh allows nominees to withdraw funds through POS terminals.

Key Information

• Resilience of Remittances: Remittances remained stable or increased during financial crises and natural disasters.
• Impact of Economic Cycles: Remittances are more closely tied to economic cycles in corridors with less labor mobility restrictions.
• Exchange Rate Effects: Depreciation of local currencies (e.g., ruble, Indian rupee, Philippine peso) can increase remittance inflows for investment purposes.
• Role in External Financing: Remittances are increasingly seen as a reliable source of foreign currency and are being integrated into debt sustainability analysis and sovereign ratings.
• Technological Innovations: Mobile money transfer systems are transforming remittance accessibility and efficiency, especially in Africa and South Asia.
• Diaspora Bonds: These instruments are being explored as a way to leverage diaspora capital for development and crisis response.

Conclusion

The 2009 global financial crisis had a mixed impact on remittance flows, with some regions experiencing significant declines while others saw more stability. Remittances have become a critical external financing source for many developing countries, particularly those with high remittance-to-GDP ratios. The resilience of remittances is attributed to diversified migration, low labor mobility barriers, and exchange rate dynamics. As a result, diaspora bonds and mobile money transfer technologies are emerging as important tools to leverage remittances for development and crisis response.