2014年-世界发展银行全球_Zimbabwe_Economic_Policy_Dialogue___Policy_Notes_for_the_New_Government_-_2013_126页_2mb

Summary of Zimbabwe Economic Policy Dialogue - 2013

Core Content

This document, Report No: ACS13915, outlines the key challenges and policy options for Zimbabwe's socio-economic recovery and long-term development from 2013 to 2018. It is part of the World Bank's efforts to support evidence-based policy-making and economic transformation in Zimbabwe, in line with its Africa Strategy.

Main Challenges and Policy Options

I. Challenges and Options for Growth Recovery

• Mining Sector Development:

  • The mining sector has shown strong growth potential, driven by high international commodity prices, especially platinum and diamonds.
  • However, growth is not yet sustainable. Improvements in mining policies are essential to unlock investment and production.
  • A sustainable diamonds policy should be developed to leverage the sector for broad-based recovery.
  • Mining revenues should be linked to human development, infrastructure, and other sectors to ensure long-term benefits.

• Agriculture, Land and Food Security:

  • The agricultural sector has lost its previous dominance and is now mainly small-scale.
  • Sustained growth is difficult without improving productivity, water management, marketing, and land security.
  • The new agricultural structure has high potential for long-term growth and employment generation, but requires support in terms of services, technical change, and policy stability.

• Re-Manufacturing Zimbabwe:

  • The manufacturing sector is highly diversified but suffers from limited new entrants and reliance on imported inputs.
  • Recovery is hampered by supply-side constraints such as outdated machinery, high input costs, and weak domestic linkages.
  • A strategy to support manufacturing should focus on reducing business costs and improving access to public services (energy, water, transport).

• Fostering Private Sector Development:

  • Private sector confidence and investment are critical for economic recovery.
  • Clarification of indigenization policies and removal of anti-investment biases are needed to attract both domestic and foreign investment.

II. Critical Issues in Public Management

• Managing Civil Service Employment Costs:

  • Addressing the high employment costs in the civil service is essential for fiscal sustainability and efficient public spending.

• Operational and Financial Issues in Infrastructure Parastatals:

  • Infrastructure development is a priority, with total investment needs estimated at US$40 billion across energy, water, transport, and ICT.
  • Improving the efficiency and management of these sectors is crucial for long-term recovery.

• Indigenization and Economic Linkages:

  • Indigenization policies need to be implemented with clarity to foster inclusive growth.
  • Linking mining revenues to other sectors and human capital development is necessary for sustainable economic transformation.

• Land Management:

  • Land tenure issues remain a major challenge, affecting agricultural productivity and investment.
  • Resolving land-related uncertainties is essential for the recovery of the agricultural sector.

• Public Financial Management:

  • Strengthening public financial management is critical for economic recovery and policy consistency.

Socio-Economic Recovery Priorities

III. Eradicating Extreme Poverty and Building Human Capital

• Human Development Indicators:

  • Human development has been significantly affected by the decade-long crisis.
  • Poverty remains widespread, with 70% of the population below the national poverty line and 22.5% in extreme poverty.
  • The maternal mortality ratio and infant mortality rates are among the highest in the region, and malnutrition and lack of immunization are ongoing issues.

• Policy Priorities:

  • Reversing inequality in budget allocation by prioritizing high-quality education, health, and targeted social protection.
  • Improving allocative efficiency by ensuring full funding of priorities and minimizing fragmentation.
  • Enhancing technical efficiency through better funding of non-wage inputs.

• Intersectoral Linkages:

  • Rebuilding the agricultural sector for food self-sufficiency and poverty reduction.
  • Job creation is essential for reducing informality and improving livelihoods.
  • Linking mining revenues to human capital investment is key for long-term recovery.

Recovering Access to International Financial Markets

• Infrastructure Investment Needs:

  • Zimbabwe's infrastructure investment needs are substantial, estimated at US$40 billion.
  • Access to international financial markets is crucial for funding these investments and achieving long-term growth.

• ZAADDS Strategy:

  • The Zimbabwe Accelerated Arrears Clearance Debt and Development Strategy (ZAADDS) aims to resolve arrears with bilateral creditors and international financial institutions.
  • A track record of sustainable macroeconomic policies is needed to regain access to international financing.

• Current Economic Situation:

  • The country has relied heavily on short-term capital inflows and non-concessional financing.
  • A sustainable strategy requires macroeconomic stability, investor confidence, and long-term investment incentives.

• Importance of Policy Consistency:

  • Inconsistent policies have undermined economic reforms and recovery efforts.
  • Consistent and credible policies are essential for attracting investment and ensuring long-term growth.

Conclusion

Zimbabwe's economic recovery and development depend on addressing three main challenges:

1. Fostering broad-based economic transformation.
2. Eradicating extreme poverty and rebuilding human capital.
3. Recovering access to international financial markets.

The mining and agricultural sectors are central to this process, with the potential to drive growth and support other sectors. Strengthening these sectors requires clear policies, investment in infrastructure, and improved business environments. The manufacturing sector, though diversified, remains constrained by supply-side issues and needs support to re-integrate into the global economy. Overall, a coherent and consistent policy framework is essential for Zimbabwe's path to sustainable recovery and development.