2010年-世界发展银行全球_Zimbabwe_Public_Expenditure_Notes___Managing_Government_Wage_Bill_for_Sustained_Recovery_37页_481kb

Summary of Zimbabwe Public Expenditure Notes

Core Content

This document outlines the challenges and recommendations for managing the civil service wage bill in Zimbabwe, with a focus on achieving fiscal sustainability and supporting economic recovery. It highlights the historical context of the country's economic decline, the impact of the wage bill on public finances, and proposes both short-term and medium-term measures to address this issue.

Main Points

• Economic Context:
  Zimbabwe's GDP and domestic fiscal revenues have been in decline for over a decade, with a sharp drop in real GDP and hyperinflation reaching nearly 500 billion percent in 2008. The economy began to recover in 2009 with a 5.7 percent real GDP growth, and is expected to continue improving in 2010. However, the wage bill remains a significant fiscal burden.

• Wage Bill Trends:
  The civil service wage bill has historically been high, contributing to large fiscal deficits and macroeconomic instability. In 2010, the wage bill is projected to reach around 13 percent of GDP and 45 percent of revenues. If no adjustment is made, it could rise to 16 percent of GDP and 56 percent of revenues by 2015, even with a healthy 5 percent GDP growth.

• Impact of High Wage Bill:
  A high wage bill crowds out critical non-wage expenditures, such as capital spending and social programs, and limits the government's ability to respond to macroeconomic shocks. Additionally, it affects the competitiveness of the private sector due to the government's dominant role as an employer.

• Recommendations:
  The document recommends a combination of short-term and medium-term measures to bring the wage bill under control. These include:

  • Limiting wage increases in 2010 to already announced levels, and in 2011 to the rate of CPI inflation.
  • Using the ongoing Payroll and Skills Audit to identify and eliminate irregular salaries.
  • Revisiting the hiring plan for 2010 to avoid unnecessary expansion of the civil service.
  • Improving the wage negotiation process to prevent misunderstandings and strikes.
  • Establishing a high-level committee to coordinate wage and employment policies.
  • Implementing a medium-term strategy that includes real wage restraint, rationalization of employment, and a review of the civil service structure.

Key Information

Wage Bill and Employment (2009-2010)

• Civil Servants: Increased from 182,147 to 200,389 (Table 1).
• Wage Bill: Rose from $277 million to $456 million.
• Total Government Employees: Increased from 224,365 to 246,927.
• Total Employment Costs: Increased from $517 million to $917 million.
• Wage Bill as % of GDP: Rose from 9.1% to 13.1%.
• Wage Bill as % of Revenues: Remained at 44.9% to 44.7%.

Macroeconomic Context

• GDP Decline: Real GDP fell by nearly 48% between 1999 and 2008.
• Inflation: Accelerated to hyperinflation, peaking at 500 billion percent in 2008.
• Revenue and Expenditure Trends:
  • Total tax and non-tax revenue fell from 24.1% of GDP in 1995 to 3.7% in 2008.
  • Total expenditure also declined sharply, from 27.2% in 1995 to 3.4% in 2008.
• Wage Bill as % of Revenues: Exceeded 40% in 2010, making it a regional outlier.

Short-Term Measures

• Wage Restraint: No additional wage increases beyond those already announced in 2010. In 2011, limit wage increases to CPI inflation.
• Payroll Audit: Use findings to eliminate irregular salaries by identifying staff not present during enumeration.
• Hiring Plan: Revisit the plan to hire 18,000 additional staff in 2010, focusing only on critical employment gaps.
• Wage Negotiations: Conduct negotiations earlier in the budget cycle to avoid surprises for unions. Improve the analytical basis for wage setting by comparing with private sector wages and analyzing cost of living.

Medium-Term Approach

• Real Wage Restraint: Continue with real wage restraint even after 2011, with benchmarks for GDP growth and employment reduction to guide real wage increases.
• Competitiveness: Maintain higher wages for senior grades to ensure competitiveness with the private sector, while tracking attrition and applicant quality.
• Health Sector Salaries: Recognize the current health sector top-up scheme as a temporary measure and prepare for an exit strategy.
• Establishment Register: Revive the use of the establishment register to ensure hiring is done only against established posts, reducing irregular employment.
• Civil Service Rationalization: Examine the size and composition of the civil service to align with the changing role of the government.
• Committee Formation: Establish a high-level committee to coordinate employment and wage policies across relevant ministries.

Conclusion

The document emphasizes the urgent need for the Government of Zimbabwe to address the unsustainable growth of the wage bill. It advocates for immediate action in 2010 and 2011, followed by a medium-term strategy that includes rationalizing employment, improving wage negotiation processes, and aligning the civil service with the new development approach. A wage bill of around 10% of GDP is suggested as a medium-term target, based on historical and international comparisons.