2010年-世界发展银行全球_Belarus_-_Industrial_Performance_Before_and_During_the_Global_Crisis____Belarus_Economic_Policy_Notes___Note_No_2_47页_2mb

Belarus Trade Performance and Competitiveness Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of Belarus's trade performance and competitiveness from 2001 to 2008, with a focus on export trends, structural transformation, and the challenges faced by the country's industrial sector. It highlights the need for policy reforms to enhance export diversification and structural transformation to ensure long-term economic growth and stability.

Main Messages

• Competitiveness and Export Sustainability: Belarus's competitiveness and export sustainability have gradually eroded despite strong recent growth and favorable external conditions.
• Economic Growth Drivers: Economic growth has become increasingly driven by domestic demand rather than exports, and export growth has been largely due to price increases.
• Export Concentration: Exports are concentrated in terms of both the number of exporters and products, increasing vulnerability to external shocks.
• Trade Restructuring and Diversification: Trade restructuring and diversification have been slow, with the EU's share in non-oil exports remaining stagnant and Russia still accounting for over half of non-oil exports.
• Intra-Industry Trade: Intra-industry trade intensity is low, especially with more developed countries, reflecting a lack of FDI and technology transfer.
• Comparative Advantages: Belarus's comparative advantages have shifted towards raw materials and petroleum, away from labor- and capital-intensive goods, limiting job creation and productivity improvements.
• Export Sophistication: Export sophistication has not increased, indicating a shift towards lower technological content goods and a loss of market share in higher sophistication markets like Russia.
• Structural Transformation: Structural transformation opportunities are limited, with a rigid industrial structure and few new firms entering the market.

Key Trends and Data

I. Trade Performance

• Trade Openness: Belarus has a high trade openness ratio, with merchandise trade-to-GDP reaching 120% in 2008.
• GDP Contribution: Exports contributed significantly to GDP growth during 2001-04, but their share declined in the subsequent period.
• Export Growth: In nominal terms, Belarus's export growth was among the highest in the region, but in constant prices, it was less impressive.
• Import Growth: Real import growth was more significant, driven largely by the price factor.

II. Geographical and Commodity Patterns

• Trading Partners: Russia remains Belarus's largest trading partner, accounting for one third of total exports and almost 60% of total imports.
• Commodity Structure: Exports have shifted towards mineral products and chemicals, which now account for over 50% of total exports and over 80% of non-CIS exports.
• Import Structure: Imports are increasingly dominated by mineral products, especially oil and gas, which accounted for over one third of total imports in 2008.
• Unusual Trade Structure: Belarus's trade structure is unusual given its income level and natural resource endowments, with a high share of fuels and a low share of consumer goods in imports.

III. Price and Terms of Trade Developments

• Price Factor: The price factor has become a major driver of trade growth, especially for exports, which saw almost entirely price-driven growth in 2004-08.
• Terms of Trade (TOT): TOT improved continuously from 2001-08, with a 34% gain. However, fluctuations were driven by energy product prices, particularly oil and gas.
• Energy Dependency: Belarus's TOT was affected by the increase in the cost of imported gas from Russia in 2009, which contributed to a worsening trade deficit.

IV. Impact of the Crisis

• Crisis Transmission: The 2008 crisis had a significant impact on Belarus, primarily through reduced export revenues and limited access to international borrowing.
• Trade Deficit: The trade deficit widened in 2009 to about US$7 billion or 14.2% of GDP.
• Investment Goods: Investment goods trade was most affected, with exports declining by 2 times in 2009 compared to 2008, especially to Russia.
• SOE Behavior: State-owned enterprises (SOEs) were reluctant to adjust to weaker demand, contributing to a slower decline in imports.

Policy Implications

• Economic Incentives: Policy efforts should focus on changing economic incentives and improving the business climate for both state and private sectors.
• FDI and Technology Transfer: Enhancing FDI inflows and technology transfer is essential to increase productivity and competitiveness.
• Export Diversification: There is a strong case for export diversification and structural transformation to reduce dependency on Russia and the CIS.
• Integration into Global Networks: Belarus needs to integrate more into global supply chains and networks to enhance its competitiveness and economic stability.

Methodology and Data Sources

• Data Sources: The analysis is based on trade statistics from the World Bank, Belstat, and WITS/COMTRADE databases.
• Surveys: Enterprise-level data from three competitiveness surveys conducted by the Research Institute of the Belarusian Ministry of Economy (RIME) in 2004, 2006, and mid-2008 were used.
• Comparators: Belarus's performance was compared with neighboring countries and regional peers to highlight its relative position.

Conclusion

The document concludes that Belarus's trade performance and competitiveness have weakened over time, primarily due to weak marketing capabilities, low innovation incentives, and limited integration into global supply chains. These challenges underscore the need for structural reforms to enhance export diversification and support the development of a more competitive and diversified industrial sector.