亚开行-促进孟加拉国出口多样化：问题和前进方向（英）-2024.6-88页_1mb

FOSTERING EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION IN BANGLADESH: ISSUES AND WAY FORWARD

This working paper analyzes the challenges and policy recommendations regarding export diversification in Bangladesh, crucial for sustainable economic growth and preparing for LDC graduation in 2026.

1. Export Growth and Concentration

• Bangladesh has significantly increased its exports (now exceeding $55 billion), driven largely by the dominant Ready-Made Garment (RMG) sector, which accounts for over 80% of total exports and more than 90% of apparel exports.
• However, the export basket is extremely concentrated. Its Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) score is 0.88, ranking fourth globally for concentration, indicating heavy reliance on a few products, primarily RMG.
• While apparel exports are highly competitive due to LDC preferences, non-cotton apparel and other sectors like agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and machinery face less favorable conditions.
• Complementary factors include an anti-export biased trade policy regime with high nominal protection rates and significant para-tariffs, low labor productivity, skill shortages, weak infrastructure (especially logistics), limited FDI, and inadequate trade finance, which hinder diversification. Skill gaps and outdated technology also impede non-RMG sectors.

2. Export Diversification Challenges

• Trade Policy Regime: High tariff rates and complex para-tariffs (supplementary duty, regulatory duty) create a high-cost environment for non-RMG exports, making domestic sales relatively more attractive and fostering an "anti-export bias." Tariff rationalization is needed but faces revenue concerns.
• Trade Infrastructure & Business Enabling Factors: Weak logistics (high trade logistics costs, ranked poorly on LPI), energy shortages, transportation bottlenecks, complex customs procedures, land management difficulties, and a weak investment climate restrict export potential.
• Skills, Technology & FDI: Shortages of skilled labor, outdated technology, low R&D investment, and limited FDI constrain diversification efforts. Exporters, especially SMEs, struggle with accessing international quality standards, compliance requirements (e.g., for pharma, food, footwear), and trade finance.

3. LDC Graduation Implications

• LDC graduation will remove preferential access in key markets (EU, UK, Canada, US). Average tariff increases range from 17% (Canada) to over 30% (India) on their exports. Market share losses, particularly in apparel, are expected.
• This threat necessitates urgent action to build non-RMG export capacity to cushion the shock.
• Graduation doesn't end preferences completely (e.g., UK DCTS), but requires proactive engagement to retain access and extend transition periods.

4. Policy Recommendations

• General: Implement the National Tariff Policy 2023 effectively, rationalize tariffs despite revenue concerns (potential revenue gain from domestic manufacturing). Ensure non-discriminatory access to incentives for all sectors (e.g., extend bonded warehouses). Attract FDI by reforming investment procedures. Facilitate non-RMG exporters' integration into GVCs by linking them to major brands. Reduce trade costs through infrastructure development and trade facilitation. Enhance specialized vocational training and human capital development. Improve quality standards and compliance capabilities for exporters.
• LDC Graduation Focus: Proactively engage with the EU to secure favorable post-graduation market access (including extended transition periods and preferential treatment). Explore PTA opportunities with developing countries. Advocate for nuanced FTA negotiations despite risks. Develop WTO-compliant export incentive mechanisms where feasible.

Conclusion

Export diversification remains critical to Bangladesh's economic strategy. Addressing the identified challenges—heavy reliance on RMG, anti-export bias, weak infrastructure, skills gaps, and the implications of LDC graduation—through deeper policy reforms and targeted interventions is essential for sustainable growth and global market resilience.