20160815-大华银行-FX_Insights_12页_1mb
报告摘要
FX Insights Summary - August 15, 2016
Core Content Overview
This document provides a detailed analysis of foreign exchange (FX) pairs as of August 15, 2016, focusing on short-term and medium-term outlooks. It includes key data points, price movements, support and resistance levels, and economic factors influencing the markets.
Key FX Pairs and Outlooks
| FX Pair | Spot | Outlook | 24-Hour View | 1-3 Weeks View |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/SGD | 1.3460 | Bearish | Current recovery may extend to 1.3490, but support at 1.3440 is key. | Bearish: Need to break below 1.3360 to confirm a down-move towards 1.3315/15. |
| EUR/SGD | 1.5020 | Neutral | Rally to 1.5055/60 is over-extended; pull-back to 1.4980 is likely. | Neutral: Bullish if daily close above 1.5060. |
| GBP/SGD | 1.7375 | Neutral | Expected to drift lower to 1.7335; support at 1.7335 is crucial. | Neutral: GBP to drift lower to 1.7335. |
| AUD/SGD | 1.0300 | Bullish | Bulls may take partial profit at current level; support at 1.0260/65 is strong. | Bullish: Take partial profit at current level. |
| JPY/SGD | 1.3280 | Neutral | Consolidation is expected; range between 1.3240 and 1.3310. | Neutral: Recovery could extend to 1.3385/90. |
| USD/MYR | 4.0350 | Neutral | Likely to trade within a 4.0040/4.0680 range. | Neutral: In a 4.0040/4.0680 range. |
| USD/THB | 34.79 | Bearish | Decreased odds for further USD weakness; support at 34.70 is key. | Bearish: To take partial profit at 34.61. |
| USD/CNH | 6.6520 | Neutral | Expected to trade within a 6.6300/6.6650 range. | Neutral: In a 6.6300/6.6650 range. |
| CNH/SGD | 0.2025 | Neutral | Rebound could extend to 0.2028; support at 0.2017 is strong. | Neutral: Rebound could extend to 0.2028. |
| EUR/USD | 1.1160 | Neutral | Mixed outlook; expected to trade sideways within 1.1130/1.1195. | Neutral: Positive undertone; bullish only if above 1.1250. |
| GBP/USD | 1.2905 | Bearish | Expected to trade lower to 1.2850; support at 1.2845/50 is key. | Bearish: To take partial profit at 1.2850. |
| AUD/USD | 0.7655 | Neutral | Bullish phase ended; expected to trade within 0.7595/0.7725 range. | Shift from bullish to neutral; in a 0.7595/0.7725 range. |
| NZD/USD | 0.7195 | Bullish | Expected to trade lower to 0.7155/60; resistance at 0.7255 is strong. | Bullish: Diminished odds for further NZD strength. |
| USD/JPY | 101.30 | Neutral | Expected to trade sideways within 100.50/102.80 range. | Neutral: In a 100.50/102.80 range. |
Key Economic Data and Events
- Japan: 2Q 2016 GDP growth was revised to 0.2% (SAAR) from 2% in 1Q, indicating a slowdown. Japan's July trade data is expected on Thursday.
- UK: Post-Brexit economic data, including July CPI, RPI, PPI, and jobless claims, will be released in the coming days.
- US: The Fed's FOMC meeting minutes from July 26/27 will be released on Thursday, 18 August 2016.
- Other Data: July retail sales data for the US and UK will be released on 16 and 18 August, respectively.
FX Outlook for 2016
| FX Pair | 3Q16 | 4Q16 | 1Q17 | 2Q17 | Rates Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.09 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 1.05 | EU: 0.00% |
| GBP/USD | 1.28 | 1.24 | 1.20 | 1.16 | UK: 0.25% |
| AUD/USD | 0.75 | 0.76 | 0.78 | 0.80 | AU: 1.50% |
| NZD/USD | 0.72 | 0.73 | 0.75 | 0.75 | NZ: 1.75% |
| USD/JPY | 105 | 106 | 109 | 110 | JP: -0.20% |
| USD/SGD | 1.37 | 1.38 | 1.41 | 1.42 | SG: 0.90% |
| USD/MYR | 4.15 | 4.15 | 4.10 | 4.08 | MY: 3.00% |
| USD/THB | 36.0 | 36.5 | 37.0 | 37.0 | TH: 1.50% |
| USD/CNY | 6.70 | 6.60 | 6.59 | 6.62 | CN: 4.10% |
| USD/IDR | 13,200 | 13,200 | 13,300 | 13,400 | ID: 5.00% |
| USD/PHP | 47.0 | 46.0 | 45.0 | 43.0 | PH: 3.00% |
| USD/INR | 70.0 | 71.1 | 72.2 | 71.1 | IN: 6.50% |
| USD/TWD | 32.7 | 32.4 | 32.1 | 31.8 | TW: 1.38% |
| USD/HKD | 7.80 | 7.80 | 7.80 | 7.80 | HK: 0.75% |
| USD/KRW | 1190 | 1200 | 1220 | 1230 | KR: 1.00% |
| USD/US | 0.50% | 0.75% | 0.75% | 1.00% | US: 1.00% |
Central Bank Meetings in 2016
| Central Bank | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve (FOMC) | 27 | - | 16 | 27 | - | - | 27 | - | 21 | - | - | 14 |
| European Central Bank (ECB) | 21 | - | 10 | 21 | - | 02 | 21 | - | 08 | 20 | - | 08 |
| Bank of England (BOE) | 14 | 04 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 16 | 14 | 04 | 15 | 13 | 03 | 15 |
| Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) | - | 02 | 01 | 05 | 03 | 07 | 05 | 02 | 06 | 04 | 01 | 06 |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) | 28 | - | 10 | 28 | - | 09 | - | 11 | 22 | - | 10 | - |
| Bank of Japan (BOJ) | 29 | - | 15 | 28 | - | 16 | 29 | - | 21 | - | 1 | - |
| Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) | 21 | - | 09 | - | 19 | - | 13 | - | 07 | - | 23 | - |
| Bank of Thailand (BOT) | - | 03 | 23 | - | 11 | 22 | - | 03 | 14 | - | 09 | 21 |
| Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) | - | - | - | 14 | - | - | - | - | - | TBA | - | - |
Summary of Main Points
- The USD/SGD pair is showing a bearish trend, with a possible consolidation phase.
- EUR/SGD and GBP/SGD are expected to trade within a neutral range.
- AUD/SGD is in a bullish phase but may face a pull-back due to profit-taking.
- JPY/SGD is consolidating at higher levels, with a potential for a sideways movement.
- USD/MYR and USD/THB are in a neutral range, with USD/THB showing a bearish outlook.
- USD/CNH and CNH/SGD are expected to trade within a broad neutral range.
- EUR/USD and GBP/USD are in a neutral phase, with GBP/USD showing a bearish outlook.
- AUD/USD and NZD/USD are shifting from bullish to neutral, with a potential for further consolidation.
- USD/JPY is expected to trade sideways within a range of 100.50 to 102.80.
- The document highlights the importance of upcoming economic data releases and central bank meetings in shaping the FX market.
Disclaimer
This analysis is based on public information and is subject to change. UOB Group does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the data and may have positions in the currencies mentioned. Readers should assess the economic, legal, and tax implications before entering any transaction.
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