20161206-大华银行-FX_Insights_12页_1mb

报告摘要

FX Insights Summary - 06 December 2016

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of foreign exchange (FX) market movements and outlooks for various currency pairs as of 6 December 2016. It includes short-term and medium-term views on the USD/SGD pair and other major FX pairs, along with economic data highlights and central bank meeting schedules.

Main Currency Pairs and Outlooks

USD/SGD: 1.4185

Outlook: Neutral
Key Levels:
- Support: S1: 1.4155, S2: 1.4120
- Resistance: R1: 1.4270, R2: 1.4355
Analysis:
- USD closed below 1.4200 for the first time in 3 weeks.
- Shorter-term downward momentum is increasing.
- A clear break below 1.4155 may lead to a deeper pull-back to 1.4100.
- If USD remains above 1.4270, it is expected to stay under pressure.

EUR/SGD: 1.5265

Outlook: Neutral
Key Levels:
- Support: S1: 1.5190, S2: 1.5150
- Resistance: R1: 1.5320, R2: 1.5400
Analysis:
- EUR/SGD traded in a volatile range of ~350 pips.
- A sustained move above 1.5320 is unlikely.
- A move below 1.5150 may indicate eased upward pressure.

GBP/SGD: 1.8070

Outlook: Bullish
Key Levels:
- Support: S1: 1.7980, S2: 1.7940
- Resistance: R1: 1.8150, R2: 1.8300
Analysis:
- GBP/SGD faced resistance at 1.8145/50.
- Partial profit-taking is advised at 1.8145/50.
- If the stop-loss at 1.7940 is not breached, further gains are expected.

AUD/SGD: 1.0585

Outlook: Neutral
Key Levels:
- Support: S1: 1.0540, S2: 1.0500
- Resistance: R1: 1.0640, R2: 1.0700
Analysis:
- AUD/SGD traded within a tight range.
- The pair is expected to consolidate in a 1.0500/1.0700 range.
- A move above 1.0650 may indicate a potential breakout.

JPY/SGD: 1.2465

Outlook: Neutral
Key Levels:
- Support: S1: 1.2430, S2: 1.2380
- Resistance: R1: 1.2520, R2: 1.2575
Analysis:
- JPY/SGD showed choppy price action.
- A dip to 1.2430 is expected, with support at 1.2380.
- Momentum indicators are mixed, but bearish outlook remains.

USD/MYR: 4.4450

Outlook: Bullish
Key Levels:
- Support: S1: 4.4400, S2: 4.4200
- Resistance: R1: 4.4680, R2: 4.4770
Analysis:
- MYR rose despite the general downward trend in Asian currencies.
- The pair is expected to consolidate within a 4.4000/4.4680 range.
- A move below 4.4200 may signal the start of consolidation.

USD/THB: 35.60

Outlook: Neutral
Key Levels:
- Support: S1: 35.45, S2: 35.30
- Resistance: R1: 35.75, R2: 35.85
Analysis:
- THB rose as USD fell.
- The pair is expected to trade within a 35.45/35.75 range.
- No significant change in the neutral outlook.

USD/CNH: 6.8690

Outlook: Bearish
Key Levels:
- Support: S1: 6.8600, S2: 6.8500
- Resistance: R1: 6.8780, R2: 6.8900
Analysis:
- USD/CNH fell sharply to 6.8555.
- A move below 6.8500 may indicate a consolidation phase.
- Partial profit-taking is advised at 6.8500.

CNH/SGD: 0.2067

Outlook: Bullish
Key Levels:
- Support: S1: 0.2062
- Resistance: R1: 0.2076, R2: 0.2083
Analysis:
- CNH/SGD is expected to consolidate and move higher towards 0.2083.
- A break below 0.2062 would indicate a short-term top.

EUR/USD: 1.0755

Outlook: Neutral
Key Levels:
- Support: S1: 1.0670, S2: 1.0500
- Resistance: R1: 1.0850, R2: 1.0900
Analysis:
- EUR/USD surged 300 pips after Renzi's resignation.
- A move above 1.0850 is unlikely.
- The pair is expected to consolidate in a range of 1.0500/1.0850.

GBP/USD: 1.2725

Outlook: Bullish
Key Levels:
- Support: S1: 1.2680, S2: 1.2630
- Resistance: R1: 1.2770, R2: 1.2865
Analysis:
- GBP/USD showed strong momentum but faced resistance at 1.2770.
- Partial profit-taking is advised at 1.2770.
- A clear break below 1.2630 would indicate eased upward pressure.

AUD/USD: 0.7470

Outlook: Neutral
Key Levels:
- Support: S1: 0.7440, S2: 0.7415
- Resistance: R1: 0.7500, R2: 0.7530
Analysis:
- AUD/USD showed improved momentum but not enough for a sustained rally.
- Expected to consolidate in a range of 0.7350/0.7550.
- A move above 0.7500 may indicate a potential breakout.

NZD/USD: 0.7145

Outlook: Neutral
Key Levels:
- Support: S1: 0.7110, S2: 0.7070
- Resistance: R1: 0.7170, R2: 0.7200
Analysis:
- NZD/USD showed some strength after the PM's resignation.
- Expected to trade in a range of 0.7050/0.7200.
- A sustained move above 0.7170 is not expected.

USD/JPY: 113.85

Outlook: Bullish
Key Levels:
- Support: S1: 112.85, S2: 111.50
- Resistance: R1: 114.80, R2: 115.00
Analysis:
- USD/JPY reclaimed the 114.00 handle.
- Expected to consolidate in a range of 111.50/115.00.
- No significant change in the bullish outlook.

Key Economic Data and Events

Failed Italian Referendum: Market impact was restrained, as the outcome was already discounted.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index: 57.2 (higher than expected).
Markit US Service PMI: 54.6 (slightly below expectations).
Fed Labor Market Conditions Index: 1.5 (up from 1.4).
Japan's Average Cash Earnings: Rose to 0.1% (unexpected).
Malaysia's FX Measures: Aimed at boosting liquidity in the onshore market.
Thailand's Market Briefing: Scheduled for 2.30pm SGT.
Australia's Current Account Deficit: Narrowed to AUD11.36bn in Q3.

Central Bank Meetings

Central Bank	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Federal Reserve (FOMC)	-	01	15*	-	03	14*	26	-	20*	-	01
European Central Bank	19	-	09	27	-	08	20	-	07	26	-
Bank of England (BOE)	-	02#	16	-	11#	15	-	03#	14	-	02#
Reserve Bank of Australia	-	07	07	04	02	06	04	01	05	03	07
Reserve Bank of New Zealand	-	09^	23	-	11^	22	-	10^	28	-	09^
Bank of Japan (BOJ)	31%	-	16	27%	-	16	20%	-	21	31%	-
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)	19	-	tba	-	tba	-	tba	-	tba	-	-
Bank of Thailand (BOT)	-	08	29	-	24	-	05	16	27	-	08
Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)	-	-	-	tba	-	-	-	-	-	tba	-