20160330-大华银行-FX_Insights_12页_1mb

报告摘要

FX Insights Summary - 30 March 2016

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of foreign exchange (FX) pairs and market outlooks for the week of 30 March 2016. It includes insights on short-term and mid-term trends, key support and resistance levels, and the impact of recent economic and policy developments on currency movements.

Main Viewpoints and Key Information

1. USD/SGD: 1.3550

Outlook: Neutral
Short-term: The pair has dropped from a high of 1.3739, breaking below the key support at 1.3600. However, the USD is not in a bearish phase yet.
Support: 1.3480 (S1), 1.3410 (S2)
Resistance: 1.3630 (R1), 1.3685 (R2)
Expectation: Consolidation before a more sustained mid-term down-move. A retest of 1.3685 is needed to confirm a reversal.

2. EUR/SGD: 1.5290

Outlook: Neutral
Short-term: EUR is in a range trading mode, with improving downward momentum.
Support: 1.5240 (S1), 1.5200 (S2)
Resistance: 1.5350 (R1), 1.5400 (R2)
Expectation: Likely to trade within the 1.5200/1.5400 range in the short to mid-term.

3. GBP/SGD: 1.9470

Outlook: Neutral
Short-term: GBP is in a corrective recovery phase with mixed outlook due to Brexit risks.
Support: 1.9385 (S1), 1.9245 (S2)
Resistance: 1.9550 (R1), 1.9695 (R2)
Expectation: Potential for a move to 1.9695, but not expected to extend further unless it breaks below 1.9385.

4. AUD/SGD: 1.0340

Outlook: Neutral
Short-term: AUD dipped to a low of 1.0265/70 before rebounding, indicating consolidation.
Support: 1.0300 (S1), 1.0240 (S2)
Resistance: 1.0390 (R1), 1.0420 (R2)
Expectation: Expected to trade in a broad range between 1.0240 and 1.0420. A move above 1.0340 may indicate a resumption of the bullish trend.

5. JPY/SGD: 1.2030

Outlook: Bearish
Short-term: JPY has broken below 1.2030, indicating the start of a bearish phase.
Support: 1.1990 (S1), 1.1915 (S2)
Resistance: 1.2060 (R1), 1.2140 (R2)
Expectation: Targeting a move to 1.1915 with a stop-loss at 1.2140. Short-term consolidation is likely before further weakness.

6. USD/MYR: 3.9720

Outlook: Bearish
Short-term: The sharp drop is viewed as part of the broader bearish phase, with the next support at 3.9200.
Support: 3.9550 (S1), 3.9200 (S2)
Resistance: 4.0350 (R1), 4.0500 (R2)
Expectation: The pair is expected to consolidate before further bearish movement. The current level is at 3.9720.

7. USD/THB: 35.33

Outlook: Neutral
Short-term: USD/THB reached a high of 35.45, but the movement is seen as part of a consolidation phase.
Support: 35.20 (S1), 35.15 (S2)
Resistance: 35.45 (R1), 35.48 (R2)
Expectation: Expected to trade between 35.15 and 35.48 in the short to mid-term.

8. USD/CNH: 6.4940

Outlook: Neutral
Short-term: USD/CNH is in a consolidation phase, with a range likely to be between 6.4700 and 6.5220.
Support: 6.4800 (S1), 6.4700 (S2)
Resistance: 6.5060 (R1), 6.5220 (R2)
Expectation: Range trading is expected unless a break above 6.4950 is achieved.

9. EUR/USD: 1.1285

Outlook: Neutral
Short-term: EUR has extended its rebound, with strong upward momentum.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1345, 1.1375
Expectation: Expected to trade within a broad range between 1.1175 and 1.1375. A sustained move above 1.1375 may indicate a bullish trend.

10. GBP/USD: 1.4380

Outlook: Neutral
Short-term: GBP has extended its rebound, but the momentum is not strong enough for a sustained move above 1.4400.
Support: 1.4310, 1.4260
Resistance: 1.4400, 1.4510
Expectation: Likely to remain within a broad range between 1.4050 and 1.4400.

11. AUD/USD: 0.7635

Outlook: Neutral
Short-term: AUD has surged to a weekly high, with strong upward momentum.
Support: 0.7560, 0.7510
Resistance: 0.7680, 0.7740
Expectation: Expected to trade in a broad range between 0.7450 and 0.7650. A move above 0.7680 may signal further strength.

12. NZD/USD: 0.6845

Outlook: Neutral
Short-term: NZD has surged to an October-2015 high, but further strength depends on a clear break above 0.6900.
Support: 0.6810, 0.6760
Resistance: 0.6900, 0.6950
Expectation: A move above 0.6900 would signal a stronger bullish trend.

13. USD/JPY: 112.60

Outlook: Neutral
Short-term: USD/JPY dropped sharply from 113.80, but a break below 112.00 is not expected.
Support: 112.00, 111.50
Resistance: 113.10, 113.50
Expectation: Expected to trade in a broad range between 111.50 and 113.50. Further weakness may occur after a consolidation phase.

FX Outlook for 2016

Currency Pair	2Q16	3Q16	4Q16	1Q17	Rates Outlook
EUR/USD	1.11	1.11	1.12	1.13	EU: 0.00%
GBP/USD	1.39	1.43	1.46	1.47	UK: 0.50%
AUD/USD	0.77	0.79	0.80	0.80	AU: 2.00%
NZD/USD	0.67	0.69	0.70	0.71	NZ: 2.00%
USD/JPY	110	111	112	115	JP: -0.10%
USD/SGD	1.34	1.35	1.36	1.39	SG: 1.30%
USD/MYR	4.05	4.08	4.10	4.10	MY: 3.25%
USD/THB	36.0	36.0	36.5	37.0	TH: 1.50%
USD/CNY	6.47	6.50	6.45	6.44	CN: 3.85%

Central Bank Meetings 2016

Central Bank	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Federal Reserve (FOMC)	27	-	16	27	-	15	27	-	21	-	02	14
European Central Bank (ECB)	21	-	10	21	-	02	21	-	08	20	-	08
Bank of England (BOE)	14	04	17	14	12	16	14	04	15	13	01	06
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)	-	02	01	05	03	07	05	02	06	04	01	06
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)	28	-	10	28	-	09	-	04	11	22	-	-
Bank of Japan (BOJ)	29	-	15	28	-	16	29	-	-	-	-	-
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)	21	-	09	-	19	-	13	-	07	-	23	-
Bank of Thailand (BOT)	-	03	23	-	11	22	-	03	14	-	09	21
Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)	-	-	-	TBA	-	-	-	-	TBA	-	-	-

Disclaimer

This analysis is based on publicly available information and reflects the opinion of UOB Group as of the date of the analysis. It is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete and may change without notice. UOB Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions in, the currencies and financial products mentioned. Readers are advised to conduct their own due diligence and understand the associated risks before making any investment decisions.

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