20160727-大华银行-FX_Insights_12页_1mb

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FX Insights Summary - 27 July 2016

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of the foreign exchange (FX) market on 27 July 2016, focusing on key currency pairs and their short-term and medium-term outlooks. The report is authored by Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann from UOB Group's Global Economics & Markets Research team. It includes a chart of the day, key economic data, and a summary of market movements and expectations for upcoming central bank meetings.

Main Currency Pairs and Outlooks

USD/SGD: 1.3580

Outlook: Bullish
Since: 21 Jul 16 (1.3570)
Target: 1.3645/50
Trailing-Stop: 1.3550, 1.3500
Support: 1.3550, 1.3500
Resistance: 1.3610, 1.3645
24-Hour View: The pair touched a one-month high of 1.3640 before reversing sharply, forming a bearish outside bar. The odds for a move towards the immediate target have diminished, and a break below 1.3550 would indicate the end of the current bullish phase.
1-3 Weeks View: The bullish outlook is tempered, with a potential pull-back to 1.3470 if the USD fails to move above 1.3645/50.

EUR/SGD: 1.4920

Outlook: Neutral
Since: 26 Jul 16 (1.4970)
Target: -
Trailing-Stop: -
Support: 1.4870, 1.4820
Resistance: 1.4970, 1.5000
24-Hour View: The EUR eased to an overnight low of 1.4906, but the key resistance at 1.5000 remains intact.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral with a potential corrective rebound to 1.5060. The pair is expected to trade within a range of 1.4820 to 1.5000.

GBP/SGD: 1.7850

Outlook: Neutral
Since: 13 Jul 16 (1.7865)
Target: -
Trailing-Stop: -
Support: 1.7790, 1.7725/30
Resistance: 1.7920, 1.8010
24-Hour View: GBP edged below the key support of 1.7730 but rebounded quickly, suggesting a consolidation phase.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, expected to trade within a range of 1.7650 to 1.8010.

AUD/SGD: 1.0205

Outlook: Neutral
Since: 20 Jul 16 (1.0165)
Target: -
Trailing-Stop: -
Support: 1.0150, 1.0100
Resistance: 1.0250, 1.0310
24-Hour View: The pair exceeded the target of 1.0220, but the upward pressure has eased.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, expected to trade within a range of 1.0100 to 1.0250.

JPY/SGD: 1.2925

Outlook: Neutral
Since: 22 Jul 16 (1.2790)
Target: -
Trailing-Stop: -
Support: 1.2850, 1.2755
Resistance: 1.2980, 1.3080
24-Hour View: JPY surged to a high of 1.3045/50 but pulled back, indicating a potential temporary top.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, expected to trade within a range of 1.2755 to 1.3080.

USD/MYR: 4.0610

Outlook: Bullish
Since: 25 Jul 16 (4.0800)
Target: 4.1310
Trailing-Stop: 4.0300
Support: 4.0500, 4.0300
Resistance: 4.0860
24-Hour View: A short-term correction is expected, but the outlook remains bullish as long as 4.0300 is intact.
1-3 Weeks View: Immediate target at 4.1310.

USD/THB: 34.99

Outlook: Neutral
Since: 26 Jul 16 (35.05)
Target: -
Trailing-Stop: -
Support: 34.90
Resistance: 35.20
24-Hour View: The pair is in a consolidation phase, expected to trade within a range of 34.90 to 35.20.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, likely to trade within a range of 34.90 to 35.20.

USD/CNH: 6.6790

Outlook: Bearish
Since: 21 Jul 16 (6.6830)
Target: 6.6530
Trailing-Stop: 6.6950
Support: 6.6720, 6.6685
Resistance: 6.6900, 6.6950
24-Hour View: The pair is consolidating, and a break below 6.6685 would indicate further downward pressure.
1-3 Weeks View: Bearish, with an immediate target at 6.6530.

CNH/SGD: 0.2033

Outlook: Bullish
Since: 20 Jul 16 (0.2020)
Target: 0.2046
Trailing-Stop: 0.2023
Support: 0.2023
Resistance: 0.2039, 0.2046
24-Hour View: Upward momentum is slowing, and a clear move above 0.2023 is needed to confirm a short-term top.
1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with a target to take partial profit at 0.2046.

EUR/USD: 1.0990

Outlook: Bearish
Since: 25 Jul 16 (1.0965)
Target: 1.0905/10
Trailing-Stop: 1.1040
Support: 1.0950, 1.0905/10
Resistance: 1.1040
24-Hour View: EUR pulled back from a high of 1.1029, with support near 1.0950.
1-3 Weeks View: Bearish, with an immediate target at 1.0905/10.

GBP/USD: 1.3145

Outlook: Neutral
Since: 13 Jul 16 (1.3275)
Target: -
Trailing-Stop: -
Support: 1.3060, 1.2960
Resistance: 1.3320
24-Hour View: GBP dipped below 1.3065 support but rebounded, indicating a consolidation phase.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, expected to trade within a range of 1.2960 to 1.3320.

AUD/USD: 0.7515

Outlook: Neutral
Since: 19 Jul 16 (0.7540)
Target: -
Trailing-Stop: -
Support: 0.7490, 0.7440
Resistance: 0.7570
24-Hour View: AUD reached a high of 0.7568 but pulled back, indicating a consolidation phase.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, expected to trade within a range of 0.7440 to 0.7600.

NZD/USD: 0.7055

Outlook: Shift from bearish to neutral
Since: 27 Jul 16 (0.7055)
Target: -
Trailing-Stop: -
Support: 0.7030, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7080, 0.7120
24-Hour View: NZD had a strong and rapid advance, but the outlook is now neutral.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, expected to trade within a range of 0.6950 to 0.7120.

USD/JPY: 104.90

Outlook: Neutral
Since: 22 Jul 16 (105.85)
Target: -
Trailing-Stop: -
Support: 104.35, 103.90
Resistance: 105.20
24-Hour View: USD weakness is stabilizing, with a potential dip to 104.35.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with a potential pull-back to 103.50.

Key Economic Data and Central Bank Meetings

U.S. Economic Data: Released overnight, U.S. data mostly beat expectations, including consumer confidence, Richmond Fed, and new home sales. The composite PMI rose to 51.5, while the services PMI dropped to 50.9.
Australia's CPI: Expected to ease to 1.1% y/y from 1.3% y/y in 1Q, likely to force the RBA to consider further rate cuts.
U.K. GDP: Expected to expand 2.1% y/y for 2Q, up from 2.0% in 1Q, thanks to a strong April.
Central Bank Meetings: The FOMC meeting is ongoing, with the Fed expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.25-0.50%. The report highlights upcoming meetings for various central banks, including the RBA, BOE, and BOJ.

Summary of Views

FX Pair	Outlook	Target	Trailing-Stop	Support	Resistance
USD/SGD	Bullish	1.3645	1.3550, 1.3500	1.3550, 1.3500	1.3610, 1.3645
EUR/SGD	Neutral	-	-	1.4870, 1.4820	1.4970, 1.5000
GBP/SGD	Neutral	-	-	1.7790, 1.7650	1.7920, 1.8010
AUD/SGD	Neutral	-	-	1.0150, 1.0100	1.0250, 1.0310
JPY/SGD	Neutral	-	-	1.2850, 1.2755	1.2980, 1.3080
USD/MYR	Bullish	4.1310	4.0300	4.0500, 4.0300	4.1000, 4.1310
USD/THB	Neutral	-	-	34.95, 34.90	35.10, 35.20
USD/CNH	Bearish	6.6530	6.6950	6.6720, 6.6685	6.6900, 6.6950
CNH/SGD	Bullish	0.2046	0.2023	0.2030, 0.2023	0.2039, 0.2046
EUR/USD	Bearish	1.0905/10	1.1040	1.0950, 1.0905	1.1010, 1.1040
GBP/USD	Neutral	-	-	1.3060, 1.2960	1.3210, 1.3320
AUD/USD	Neutral	-	-	0.7490, 0.7440	0.7560, 0.7600
NZD/USD	Neutral	-	-	0.7030, 0.6950	0.7080, 0.7120
USD/JPY	Neutral	-	-	104.35, 103.90	105.20

UOB FX & Interest Rate Outlook

FX Pair	3Q16	4Q16	1Q17	2Q17	Rates Outlook
EUR/USD	1.09	1.07	1.06	1.05	EU: 0.00%
GBP/USD	1.28	1.24	1.20	1.16	UK: 0.00%
AUD/USD	0.75	0.76	0.78	0.80	AU: 1.75%
NZD/USD	0.72	0.73	0.75	0.75	NZ: 2.00%
USD/JPY	105	106	109	110	JP: -0.20%
USD/SGD	1.37	1.38	1.41	1.42	SG: 0.90%
USD/MYR	4.15	4.15	4.10	4.08	MY: 3.00%
USD/THB	36.0	36.5	37.0	37.0	TH: 1.50%
USD/CNY	6.70	6.60	6.59	6.62	CN: 4.10%
USD/IDR	13,200	13,200	13,300	13,400	ID: 5.00%
USD/PHP	47.0	46.0	45.0	43.0	PH: 3.00%
USD/INR	70.0	71.1	72.2	71.1	IN: 6.50%
USD/TWD	32.7	32.4	32.1	31.8	TW: 1.38%
USD/HKD	7.80	7.80	7.80	7.80	HK: 0.75%
USD/KRW	1190	1200	1220	1230	KR: 1.00%
USD/US	-	-	-	-	US: 0.50%

Disclaimer

This analysis is based on publicly available information and is subject to change. UOB Group does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. The reader should conduct their own due diligence before entering any transactions. This document is proprietary and may not be reproduced or distributed without permission.

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