2012年-世界发展银行全球_Kenya_Exports_Performance_Overview_27页_1mb

Kenya Exports Performance Summary

Core Content

Kenya's economy has historically been driven by domestic consumption, which accounts for 75% of GDP, while its export performance has remained weak and inconsistent. Exports have declined in relative importance and are unable to cover the costs of oil and food imports, leading to a significant current account deficit that reached over 10% of GDP in 2011, surpassing that of Greece. This imbalance hinders Kenya's ability to achieve sustained high growth.

Main Points

• Trade Orientation and Export Growth:
  Kenya's trade/GDP ratio increased from 48% to 64% between 1996 and 2009, but it still lags behind high-growth export-oriented economies such as Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam, which have trade/GDP ratios of 130%–150%. The ideal trade/GDP ratio for Kenya, based on its level of economic development, should be at least 80%.
  The export-to-GDP ratio fluctuated between 20% and 28% during the study period, significantly below the export growth trajectories of its peers.

• Export Trends:
  The average annual growth rate of merchandise exports was only 10% between 2005 and 2009, compared to 18% for Vietnam and 15% for Cambodia. This growth has been highly volatile, with some years showing sharp declines.
  Kenya's export performance has been primarily driven by the intensive margin, i.e., growth in existing products within existing markets, rather than new product or market expansion.

• Export Composition by Sector:
  The agriculture sector (coffee, tea, and other agricultural products) has remained the largest contributor to merchandise exports, accounting for 31% of the growth between 2005 and 2009. However, its share of total exports has declined from 39% to 25%.
  The chemicals sector has shown a noticeable increase in export share, rising from 7% to 11% over the same period. Other sectors such as extractive industries and manufacturing have also contributed to export growth, but not consistently.
  The top five product groups have decreased in their share of total merchandise exports from 64% to 48%, with the introduction of new product categories like tobacco and inorganic chemicals.

• Export Destinations:
  Kenya's exports to high-income OECD countries (primarily Europe, Japan, and the US) have decreased from 41% to 34% of total exports. In contrast, exports within Africa have increased from 34% to 43%, and exports to low-income African countries have risen from 32% to 38%.
  Kenya under-exports to high-growth emerging markets such as China, Turkey, Brazil, and India, as shown by the gravity model analysis. The model suggests that Kenya's exports to these countries are below their potential, indicating room for growth.

• Export Diversification:
  Kenya's exports have become less concentrated over the past decade. The Herfindahl Index for product concentration has dropped from 0.1 to 0.05, indicating a more diversified export basket.
  The index of export market penetration has increased from 14 to 25, suggesting better access to global markets. Kenya has also improved its revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in some new product categories, such as inorganic chemicals, glassware, and select apparel.

Key Findings

• Kenya's exports are heavily reliant on traditional agricultural products, which are not sufficient to cover oil and food import costs.
• The country has not effectively expanded into new markets or developed new export products, limiting its export growth potential.
• There is a need for structural transformation and manufacturing development to diversify the economy and create more sustainable growth.
• The focus of analytical work should be on export competitiveness, market diversification, and sectoral development to improve Kenya's trade performance.

Recommendations

• Conduct a detailed analysis of Kenya's trade patterns with key African partners to explore opportunities for increasing exports and diversification.
• Investigate the reasons behind Kenya's limited engagement with BRIC countries and other high-growth emerging markets.
• Perform field research in key sectors such as chemicals and agriculture to identify the factors behind growth and decline in these areas.
• Develop policies that promote export diversification, manufacturing growth, and market expansion to reduce economic imbalances and enhance long-term growth prospects.

Conclusion

Kenya's export performance is below its potential, with a strong reliance on domestic consumption and limited diversification in both products and markets. To achieve sustainable growth, Kenya must improve its export competitiveness, expand into new markets, and develop a more balanced and diversified export structure.