2012年-世界发展银行全球_Are_Jordan_and_Tunisias_Exports_Becoming_More_Technologically_Sophisticated__And_Why_It_Matters_4页_756kb

MENA Knowledge and Learning: Jordan and Tunisia's Export Evolution

Core Content

This document analyzes the evolution of export structures in Jordan and Tunisia over the past decade, focusing on the technological sophistication of their exports and the implications for economic growth and employment. The study uses highly detailed export data (at the 11-digit product level) and a product-based methodology to classify exports by technological content and sector of origin.

Main Points

1. Global Trends in Trade and Technology

• High-tech products have become the fastest-growing segment in international trade.
• Developing countries are increasingly exporting high-tech goods due to trade openness, technology adoption, and FDI inflows.
• Knowledge and technology spillovers have enabled developing countries to specialize in high-tech niches, especially those with strong human capital and proximity to innovation hubs.

2. Why Jordan and Tunisia?

• Both countries are well-integrated into global manufacturing markets.
• They have a strong human capital base, including a large number of engineers, a high-skill diaspora, and an IT-savvy youth.
• High unemployment among educated and skilled workers motivates the expansion of skill and technology-intensive sectors to improve productivity and reduce unemployment.

3. Historical Evolution of Exports

• Tunisia:
  • Textiles and clothing were the dominant export sector, but their share declined from 44% in 1995 to 24% in 2009.
  • Medium and high-tech exports increased steadily, especially in engineering and electrical machinery.
  • The shift from low-value textiles to higher-value manufacturing reflects two structural transformations: diversification away from fuel exports and moving towards light mechanical and electrical production.
• Jordan:
  • Low-tech exports increased significantly, particularly in textiles and clothing, which rose from 10% to 18% of total exports between 2003 and 2010.
  • High-tech exports remained limited, with pharmaceuticals accounting for 98.6% of all high-tech exports.
  • The growth in textiles was driven by the Qualifying Industrial Zone agreement with the US, which provided duty-free access to the U.S. market.

4. Current Structure of High-Tech Exports

• Jordan:
  • High-tech exports are dominated by pharmaceutical products, which are competitive globally due to branding, quality, and strategic agreements.
• Tunisia:
  • High-tech exports come from a variety of sectors, including electronics, office equipment, and medical devices.
  • These sectors have developed naturally, leveraging existing advantages like skilled labor and proximity to the EU, rather than through a proactive strategy.

Key Findings

• Tunisia has made a more significant shift towards higher-tech exports, especially in engineering and electrical machinery, driven by its offshore investment regime and partnerships with EU automakers.
• Jordan has focused on low-tech exports, particularly textiles and clothing, which have grown rapidly but are increasingly competitive with lower-cost producers.
• The success of both countries in moving up the technological ladder is linked to "enclave" strategies, which include:
  • Transparent rules of the game.
  • External policy anchors like international agreements or special zones.
  • A stable and predictable business environment.

Policy Discussion

• The study highlights the importance of trade tools and a predictable business environment in driving industrial success.
• Institutional frameworks that support private investment (both foreign and domestic) are crucial for fostering growth.
• The Arab Spring context presents an opportunity for institutional reform, including political and public administration changes to improve public services and governance.

Policy Options

Jordan

• Should it focus on pharmaceuticals alone for moving up the technological ladder?
• How can Jordan replicate the success in pharmaceuticals in other sectors?
• Should public resources be allocated to support the textiles sector, which is dominated by foreign labor and faces declining preferences in the U.S.?

Tunisia

• Should Tunisia focus on a few strong sectors or spread its efforts across multiple products?
• Can growth in high-tech sectors be achieved without creating new advantages or attracting specific international firms?
• Policy interventions are needed to address market failures in access to credit, skilled labor, and knowledge.

Conclusion

• Both Jordan and Tunisia need to improve the innovation environment to support structural changes in their export structures.
• Current innovation policies are too narrow, suffer from institutional fragmentation, and are not aligned with industrial strategies or resource endowments.
• Addressing these issues is essential for enhancing competitiveness and achieving sustainable growth.

Contact Information

• Laura Tuck, Director, Strategy and Operations, MENA Region, The World Bank
• Regional Quick Notes Team: Omer Karasapan, Roby Fields, and Hafed Al-Ghwell
• Tel #: (202) 473 8177

Note: The MNA Quick Notes are intended to summarize lessons learned from MNA and other Bank Knowledge and Learning activities. The Notes do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its board, or its member countries.