20150108-NATIXIS-Positive_signs_from_China_17页_1mb_1mb

报告摘要

Commodities Weekly Summary - 8 January 2015

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of global commodity markets, with a focus on China's economic policies, energy prices, precious metals, and base metals. It outlines expectations for 2015 and beyond, highlighting key drivers such as environmental regulations, monetary policy, and supply-demand dynamics.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Positive Signs from China

Industrial Metal Demand: Despite environmental policies that may reduce fossil fuel demand, China is expected to show robust growth in demand for industrial metals.
Infrastructure Projects: China is accelerating 300 infrastructure projects worth CNY7tn as part of a larger 400-project plan from late-2014 to 2016.
Environmental Policy: Environmental protection is a major focus, with new legislation set to take effect. The goal is to increase non-fossil fuel usage in primary energy to 11.4% by 2015.
Import Tariffs and Export Rebates:
- Nickel: A potential deficit is acknowledged, with reduced import tariffs on semi-processed nickel ore.
- Copper: Increased export rebates on 11 copper-related products suggest authorities are less concerned about a copper shortage.
Monetary Policy:
- Chinese interest rates were cut in November 2014.
- Banks are expected to increase lending by $800bn due to a broadened deposit definition.
Equity Market: A 40%+ rally in Chinese equity markets suggests optimism about growth, but the report cautions that this may not translate into immediate demand growth.

2. Energy Outlook

Oil Markets:
- Oil markets are expected to remain heavily oversupplied in 2015, especially without emergency OPEC production cuts.
- Global demand is expected to rise by 1mn b/d, with the US, India, and China as key drivers.
Oil Prices:
- Brent: Expected to average $65.5/bbl in 2015, with a Q1 average of $48/bbl.
- WTI: Expected to trade at a $5-6/bbl discount to Brent in 2015.
Supply Dynamics:
- Non-OPEC supply is expected to increase by 1.3mn b/d in 2015.
- The US is likely to maintain strong oil production, though investment may slow if prices remain below $70/bbl for 3-6 months.
OPEC Impact:
- OPEC is producing over 30.2mn b/d, 1mn b/d above required levels.
- Weaker OPEC members (e.g., Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria) may face financial strain and potential defaults due to low oil prices.

3. Precious Metals Outlook

Gold:
- The US dollar is expected to be the biggest driver of gold prices in 2015.
- A weaker dollar would support gold as a safe-haven asset.
Silver:
- Expected to trade at a discount to gold.
Platinum and Palladium:
- The strengthening dollar is particularly important for platinum producers, who have been operating below cash costs.
- Palladium prices rose by only 11% in USD terms but almost doubled in ruble terms due to the ruble's collapse.
Currency Forecasts:
- EUR/USD is expected to reach 1.12 in June 2015.
- USD/JPY is forecast to hit 123 by year-end.
- USD/RUB and USD/ZAR are expected to weaken further.

4. Base Metals Outlook

Copper:
- Chinese production is catching up with domestic demand, with a narrowing deficit.
- Zambia: Higher royalty rates could reduce output by 158,000 tonnes in 2015. Barrick plans to close its Lumwana mine, while First Quantum starts operations at Sentinel.
- Codelco (Chile): Plans to invest over $4bn annually from 2015-2018. Output could drop by up to 50% by 2019 if new underground mines are not successfully built.
- Copper Curve: Expected to shift from backwardation to contango in 2015, with spot prices potentially limited by concerns over Chilean supply.
Aluminium:
- China remains the key swing producer.
- Smelters faced profitability challenges in 2014 due to higher electricity costs and lower raw material prices.
- Expected to see more shutdowns of less profitable operations in 2015.
- New lower-cost smelting capacity in western China will add 2.2mn t/y in 2015.
Nickel and Zinc:
- Nickel prices are expected to rise, with a potential shortage arriving.
- Zinc prices are forecast to increase, with a backwardation outlook.
Lead:
- Prices are expected to rise, though the outlook is less clear compared to other base metals.

5. Key Charts and Forecasts

Oil Prices:
- Brent: $65.5/bbl in 2015, $48/bbl in Q1.
- WTI: Expected to trade at a $5-6/bbl discount to Brent.
Precious Metals:
- Gold: Expected to decline due to a stronger dollar.
- Silver: Expected to trade at a discount to gold.
- Platinum: Strong dollar and weaker ZAR/RUB will support prices.
Base Metals:
- Copper: Expected to move from backwardation to contango.
- Aluminium: Expected to see increased capacity but more shutdowns due to profitability issues.
- Nickel: Prices expected to rise due to supply constraints.
- Zinc: Prices expected to increase with backwardation.
- Lead: Prices expected to rise.