高盛-2019年全球经济展望-2018.11-19页_681kb

Global Economic Summary: 2019 Outlook

Core Content

The global economy is expected to slow from 3.8% in 2018 to 3.5% in 2019, driven by a moderation in the US and a further slowdown in China. Growth remains above potential in most developed market (DM) economies, leading to tighter labor markets, rising core inflation, and the expectation of higher policy rates.

Main Points

• Global Growth Outlook:

  • Real GDP growth is projected to be 3.8% in 2018, 3.5% in 2019, and 3.6% in 2020.
  • Growth in the US and other DM economies is expected to slow, while EM growth remains resilient.
  • The global economy is not expected to enter a recession in 2019, though risks increase over time.

• United States:

  • The US economy is well ahead of the cycle, with the unemployment rate expected to fall to 3% by early 2020.
  • Core inflation is projected to rise to 2.14% by the end of 2019.
  • The Fed is expected to raise interest rates five more times, ending at a terminal rate of 3.14–3.12%.
  • Financial conditions tightening due to Fed policy is expected to slow growth, but the impact is manageable.
  • The Fed's rate hikes are likely to have limited spillover effects on EM economies, as most of the adjustment has already been priced in.

• China:

  • China's growth slowed significantly in 2018 due to slower credit growth and trade war fears.
  • The government has now shifted to an easing monetary and fiscal policy, which should limit further slowdown.
  • The US-China trade war is expected to continue, with tariffs likely to rise, though the impact on Chinese growth is expected to be moderate.
  • The Chinese economy is still expected to grow at 6.2% in 2019 and 6.1% in 2020.

• Europe and Japan:

  • The Euro area is expected to grow at 1.6% in 2019, slightly below trend.
  • The European auto sector contraction has temporarily weakened growth, but the underlying trend is slowing.
  • Japan's growth is expected to remain above trend, though a planned VAT hike in October 2019 could dampen momentum.
  • Core inflation in Japan is expected to rise gradually, but remains below the 2% target.
  • The ECB is expected to delay its first rate hike until late 2019, with risks skewed towards a later lift-off.

• Interest Rate Normalization:

  • A broad-based move to higher rates is expected in DM economies, including the Euro area, Sweden, Australia, and New Zealand.
  • EM monetary policy is more mixed, with some countries expected to hike rates (India, Brazil) and others to cut (Russia, South Africa).
  • The Fed's rate hikes are expected to have a moderate negative impact on EM financial conditions, but not a severe one.

Key Information

• Growth Drivers:

  • The US, Germany, and other DM economies are nearing full employment, leading to labor market tightening.
  • Wage growth has accelerated in most DM economies, indicating a stronger labor market.
  • Fiscal and monetary easing in China is expected to support growth, while the US-China trade war may have a moderate drag.

• Inflation Trends:

  • Core inflation is expected to rise gradually in DM economies, with the US and smaller DM economies approaching 2%.
  • The Euro area and Japan remain below inflation targets, suggesting that labor market slack and weak inflation expectations are still present.
  • The Phillips curve has flattened, reducing the urgency for central banks to reverse overshooting full employment.

• Policy Outlook:

  • The Fed's rate hikes are expected to be gradual, with the terminal rate at 3.14–3.12% by the end of 2019.
  • The ECB is expected to delay its first rate hike until late 2019, with risks tilted to the later side.
  • The BoJ is expected to remain on hold despite the VAT hike, as inflation remains below target.

• Risks and Uncertainties:

  • The main risk to the global outlook is a more significant US overheating, which could lead to steeper rate hikes and larger spillovers to EM.
  • China's growth is vulnerable to further trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
  • The Euro area faces risks from the Italian budget crisis and a potential disorderly Brexit, though these are expected to be manageable.

Summary Table

Analysts

• Jan Hatzius: +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
• Sven Jari Stehn: +44(20)7774-8061 | jari.stehn@gs.com | Goldman Sachs International
• Nicholas Fawcett: +44(20)7051-8321 | nicholas.fawcett@gs.com | Goldman Sachs International
• Soeren Radde: +44(20)7774-1105 | soeren.radde@qs.com | Goldman Sachs International
• Manav Chaudhary: +44(20)7051-3063 | manav.chaudhary@gs.com | Goldman Sachs International