高盛-2019年全球经济展望-2018.11-19页_672kb

Global Economics Analyst Landing the Plane Summary

Core Content

The document presents a comprehensive macroeconomic outlook for 2019, focusing on global economic growth, inflation trends, and central bank policy responses. It outlines the expected slowdown in growth, the trajectory of the US Federal Reserve's rate hikes, and the potential spillover effects on emerging markets (EM) and other regions. It also discusses the economic challenges in China, Europe, and Japan, and evaluates the risks of a global recession.

Global Economic Growth Outlook

• The global economy is expected to moderate from 3.8% in 2018 to 3.5% in 2019.
• Advanced Market (DM) growth is projected to slow to 2.1% in 2019, while Emerging Market (EM) growth is expected to remain at 4.7%.
• The US is forecast to grow at 2.5% in 2019, slightly above its potential, while the Euro area is expected to grow at 1.6%, still above trend.

US Economic Outlook

• The US labor market is tightening, with the unemployment rate projected to fall to 3% by early 2020.
• Core inflation is expected to rise to 2.14% by early 2020, driven by wage growth and the impact of tariffs.
• The Fed is expected to raise interest rates five more times in 2019, with the funds rate reaching 3.14–3.12% by year-end.
• The Fed's rate hikes are seen as a necessary step to bring growth back to its potential pace, with the potential for a "soft landing" of the US economy.

Central Bank Policy Normalization

• A broad-based shift to higher interest rates is expected across most DM economies, including the Euro area, Sweden, Australia, and New Zealand.
• The ECB is expected to raise its deposit rate in late 2019, though risks are tilted to a later lift-off due to ongoing challenges like the Italian budget crisis and Brexit.
• The BoJ is likely to remain on hold, as the planned VAT hike is expected to dampen inflation and the central bank seeks to avoid a relapse.
• EM monetary policy is expected to be more mixed, with rate hikes in India and Brazil and rate cuts in Russia and South Africa.

Inflation Trends

• Core inflation in the US and some smaller DM economies is close to 2%, but the Euro area and Japan remain below their inflation targets.
• Inflation in the Euro area is expected to gradually rise, but labor market slack and depressed inflation expectations continue to weigh on price pressures.
• Japan's core CPI inflation is expected to rise from 0.1% in 2017 to 1.5% in 2020, driven by wage growth and the impact of the VAT hike.

Spillover Effects of Fed Tightening

• The Fed's tightening is expected to have limited spillovers to other DM economies due to exchange rate adjustments.
• EM economies are more vulnerable, with two additional Fed hikes expected to tighten EM financial conditions by 40bp on average.
• A moderate drag on EM growth is anticipated, but it is considered manageable.
• The risk of larger spillovers exists if the US economy overheats, which could force more aggressive rate hikes and worsen EM conditions.

China's Economic Situation

• China's growth slowed in 2018 due to credit growth deceleration and trade war fears.
• The PBoC has already eased monetary policy, and fiscal measures are expected to continue.
• The US-China trade tensions are likely to escalate, with tariffs increasing to 25% on $200bn of imports.
• These tariffs are expected to moderately impact Chinese growth, with a real GDP hit of 0.25–0.4% depending on the level of escalation.
• The Chinese authorities are prepared to ease policy further "as needed" to mitigate the impact.

Europe: Slower But Not Slow

• The Euro area is expected to grow at 1.6% in 2019, slightly below its previous pace.
• The slowdown is attributed to temporary factors like the auto sector contraction and the impact of the VAT hike.
• Despite these challenges, the Euro area remains in an above-trend growth phase, supported by strong wage growth and accommodative credit conditions.
• The Italian budget crisis and Brexit uncertainty pose risks, but are not expected to derail the overall growth trajectory.

Risk of Global Recession

• The risk of a global recession is expected to rise in the medium term as more DM economies approach full employment.
• However, a global recession is not the base case for 2019 or beyond.
• The risks to the outlook are considered manageable, given the current state of financial conditions and the moderate pace of growth.
• The document emphasizes the importance of achieving a soft landing in the US economy to prevent a broader global downturn.

Key Analysts and Contact Information

• Jan Hatzius: +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com
• Sven Jari Stehn: +44(20)7774-8061 | jari.stehn@gs.com
• Nicholas Fawcett: +44(20)7051-8321 | nicholas.fawcett@gs.com
• Soeren Radde: +44(20)7774-1105 | soeren.radde@gs.com
• Manav Chaudhary: +44(20)7051-3063 | manav.chaudhary@gs.com

Key Figures and Forecasts

Conclusion

• The global economy is expected to slow moderately in 2019, with the US and China leading the deceleration.
• Central banks across DM economies are expected to continue normalizing monetary policy, with the Fed playing a central role.
• EM economies face some risks from Fed tightening, but the impact is considered manageable.
• The key risks to the global outlook include overheating in the US, a disorderly Brexit, and unresolved Italian budget issues.
• The document concludes that a soft landing in the US economy is crucial to maintaining global stability.