2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Determinants_of_Corporate_Investment_in_China_Evidence_From_Cross_19页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Determinants of Corporate Investment in China: Evidence from Cross-Country Firm Level Data

Core Content

This working paper by Nan Geng and Papa N'Diaye analyzes the determinants of corporate investment in China using firm-level and cross-country data. It explores how investment has evolved over time, the sectors and regions involved, the financing sources, and the role of the cost of capital. The paper also evaluates the implications of financial sector reforms on investment levels and economic rebalancing.

Main Features of Corporate Investment in China

Investment as a share of GDP: China's investment now accounts for nearly 50% of GDP, up from slightly under 30% in 1982.
Main sectors: Manufacturing (32%), real estate (23%), and infrastructure (11%) are the primary sectors driving investment.
Regional concentration: Investment is predominantly concentrated in coastal regions, though there has been a gradual shift towards inland areas.
Sources of financing: Investment is mainly financed through retained earnings (about 60%) and bank loans (about 17% for listed firms).
Corporate savings: Chinese firms, especially state-owned enterprises (SOEs), maintain high savings rates due to low dividends, cheap capital, and lack of contestability in many markets.

Key Determinants of Corporate Investment

The paper highlights the following key determinants:

Financial variables: Interest rates, exchange rates, and the depth of domestic capital markets significantly influence corporate investment.
Cost of capital: The effective cost of capital in China is low, especially when compared to the high returns it can generate, leading to over-investment.
Exchange rate appreciation: An appreciation of the real effective exchange rate (REER) reduces investment, particularly in manufacturing, as it makes exports less competitive.
Capital market development: More developed financial systems are associated with higher investment levels.
Growth opportunities and uncertainty: Investment is positively related to real GDP growth and negatively related to uncertainty and country risk.
Adjustment costs: These are captured by the capital output ratio squared and are negatively correlated with investment.
Government policies and stimulus: The 2009 RMB 4 trillion stimulus package had a significant impact on investment in infrastructure and transportation.

Financial Sector Reform and Economic Rebalancing

The paper suggests that financial sector reforms, such as deregulation, raising real interest rates, and appreciating the REER, could reduce corporate investment.
These reforms are seen as essential for rebalancing China's growth model away from investment and exports toward private consumption.
The results indicate that financial sector reforms would help reallocate resources to more consumption-oriented sectors, improving long-term economic sustainability.

Empirical Findings

Firm-Level Data Analysis

Capex ratio: Negative and significant in China, suggesting that past investment levels influence current investment.
Investment adjustment cost: Negative and significant, indicating that higher adjustment costs reduce investment.
Stock market capitalization/GDP: Positive and significant, showing that more developed capital markets support higher investment.
Real interest rate: Negative and significant, indicating that higher interest rates reduce investment.
Exchange rate appreciation: Negative and significant, especially in the firm-level data, reflecting the impact on export-oriented industries.
Real GDP growth: Positive and significant, showing that higher growth increases investment.
Current account balance: Negative and significant in China, suggesting that a negative current account balance reduces investment.
Foreign debt risk: Negative and significant, indicating that higher risk reduces investment.
Relative price of capital: Positive and significant, implying that lower capital prices encourage investment.
Volatility of GDP growth: Negative and significant, showing that uncertainty deters investment.

Aggregate Data Analysis

Capital market development: Positive and significant, indicating that more listed firms per capita correlate with higher investment.
Real interest rate: Negative and significant, with a larger impact in China than in other economies.
Exchange rate appreciation: Positive and significant, suggesting that a stronger currency increases investment.
Real GDP growth: Positive and significant, showing that economic growth stimulates investment.
Current account balance: Negative and significant, indicating that a negative balance reduces investment.
Foreign debt risk: Negative and significant, reflecting the adverse impact of external financial risk on investment.
Relative price of capital: Positive and significant, suggesting that lower capital prices encourage investment.
Volatility of GDP growth: Negative and significant, showing that economic uncertainty reduces investment.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that China's investment is driven by manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure, and is heavily concentrated in coastal regions. Financial sector reforms, including raising interest rates and appreciating the REER, are expected to lower investment and help rebalance the economy towards private consumption. The empirical evidence supports the idea that financial variables and market conditions are critical in shaping corporate investment behavior in China.

Key Information

Time frame: Analysis spans from 1990 to 2009.
Data sources: Both firm-level and aggregate national accounts data.
Methodology: Dynamic panel data estimator (Arellano and Bond, 1991) and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM).
Main implications: Financial reforms can reduce investment and shift economic growth towards consumption.
Policy relevance: The paper emphasizes the need for structural reforms to address overcapacity, deflationary pressures, and nonperforming loans.

References

Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook, 2009, "Building a Sustained Recovery," IMF.
Arellano, M., and Bond, S., 1991, "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data," Review of Economic Studies.
Barnett, S. and R. Brooks, 2006, "What's Driving Investment in China?" IMF Working Paper.
Beck, T. and R. Levine, 2001, "Stock Markets, Banks, and Growth," World Bank.
Bai, C., C. Hsieh, and Y. Qian, 2006, “The Return to Capital in China,” NBER Working Paper.
Caselli, F. and J. Freyer, 2005, "The Marginal Product of Capital," NBER Working Paper.
Guo, K., and P. N'Diaye, 2010, "Determinants of China's Private Consumption," IMF Working Paper.
Huang, Y. and Tao, K. Y., 2010, "Causes and Remedies of China's External Imbalances," Conference Paper.

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